“Omens” before the end of Bitcoin’s bull market

In the comments of yesterday's article, many readers questioned my statement that Bitcoin entered a bear market when it fell 20% from its peak in the past.

When I wrote that paragraph, I remembered that I had sorted out historical data in this regard before, and I had an impression of 20%, so I wrote it like this.

Later, I thought about it again, and this 20% is the index decline used to measure the standard of bear market in the stock market.

Does Bitcoin have a similar decline standard?

I checked the data on Coingecko (https://www.coingecko.com/), which only has data since April 2013. Therefore, I summarized the data starting from this day:

All the declines of Bitcoin after exceeding the peak of the previous bull market (equivalent to entering a new round of bull market) and before reaching the peak of the new round of bull market, with the maximum decline exceeding 20%, were sorted out.

Here, the reason why I choose 20% as the decline is because I regard 20% as a larger fluctuation, which may change the trend, while a decline of less than 20% is only regarded as a normal fluctuation.

When combing the historical data on coingecko, for the convenience of statistics, I used the daily price trend.

In the data starting in 2013, the first bull market peak was on November 29, 2013, when Bitcoin reached the bull market peak of $1,101.

I took this as the starting point.

On February 21, 2017, Bitcoin exceeded $1,101 and entered a new round of bull market.

From March 3 to March 24, 2017, Bitcoin fell from $1,289 to a minimum of $940, a drop of 27%.

From June 11, 2017 to July 16, 2017, Bitcoin fell from $3,013 to a low of $1,927, a drop of 36%.

From September 1, 2017 to September 14, 2017, Bitcoin fell from $4,863 to a low of $3,100, a drop of 36%.

From November 8, 2017 to November 12, 2017, Bitcoin fell from $7,461 to a low of $5,866, a drop of 21%.

On December 16, 2017, Bitcoin reached the peak of that bull market at $19,665.

On December 17, 2020, Bitcoin exceeded $19,665 and entered a new bull market.

From January 9 to January 28, 2021, Bitcoin fell from $40,815 to a low of $30,445, a drop of 25%.

From February 22 to March 1, 2021, Bitcoin fell from $57,669 to a low of $44,970, a drop of 22%.

From April 14 to July 21, 2021, Bitcoin fell from $64,576 to a low of $29,971, a drop of 53%.

It is worth noting that the famous 519 crash occurred between April 14 and July 21. If the 519 crash is not counted, Bitcoin fell from $64,576 to $48,981 from April 14 to April 26, a drop of only 24%.

On November 9, 2021, Bitcoin reached the peak of that bull market at $67,617.

From the data of these two rounds:

In the bull market in 2017:

- After Bitcoin entered the bull market, there were 4 declines of more than 20% after each new high. In each such big drop, the time span was within one month for 3 times, and only one time just exceeded 1 month.

- From Bitcoin entering the bull market (breaking the previous high in February 2017) to the peak of the bull market, the time span was 10 months.

- The lowest point of the first such decline was in March 2017. The time from that low point to the peak of that bull market was December 16 of that year, and the interval between the two was 9 months.

In the bull market in 2021:

- After Bitcoin entered the bull market, there were three times when the price dropped by more than 20% after each new high (including 519). If the 519 crash is excluded, the time span of each time is within 1 month, and the 519 crash lasted for more than 1 month.

- From the time Bitcoin entered the bull market (breaking the previous high in December 2020) to the peak of the bull market, the time span is 11 months.

- The lowest point of the first such decline was in January 2021. The time from that lowest point to the peak of that round of bull market was November 9 of that year, and the interval between the two was 10 months.

Combining the characteristics of these two bull markets:

- After entering the bull market for the second time, the number of such declines is decreasing.

- In terms of the size of the decline, if the second 519 crash is excluded, the decline in the second bull market is also smaller than the first.

- The duration of most of the big declines in the two bull markets did not exceed 1 month.

- The time span from entering the bull market to reaching the peak of the bull market is 1 year.

- The time span from the lowest point of the first decline to the peak of the bull market is also 1 year.

Let's take a look at the situation of this round of market:

Bitcoin exceeded $67,617 on March 9, 2024 and entered its own bull market.

From March 14, 2024 to September 7, 2024, Bitcoin fell from $73,097 to a minimum of $53,923, a drop of 26%.

From December 17, 2024 to April 9, 2025, Bitcoin fell from $106,074 to a minimum of $76,329, a drop of 28%.

Although the declines in both times were not large, the time span was significantly extended, spanning nearly half a year. From the span, this time has obviously shown different characteristics from the declines in the past two bull markets.

So how is the trend of Bitcoin related to the US stock market this time?

We can take a look at the trend of the S&P 500 index.

The S&P 500 index rose from March 14 to September 7, 2024; from December 17, 2024 to April 9, 2025, it fell from 6050 to 5456, a drop of 10%.

This trend is not very similar to Bitcoin.

If we count from the time when Bitcoin enters the bull market (March 2024), the bull market will theoretically end in March 2025. Obviously, this rule does not apply this time.

However, if we count from the lowest point of the first decline after the first decline, the bull market will theoretically end in September 2025.

Whether the actual situation will be like this, let time witness it.