One Year After Bitcoin Halving: Why This Cycle Looks So Different

It’s been a year since BTC’s most recent halving, and this cycle is showing a very different dynamic than in the past. Unlike previous cycles that saw explosive gains after halving, BTC’s gains this time have been more modest, rising only 31%, compared to a 436% gain in the previous cycle over the same time frame.

Meanwhile, long-term holder metrics such as the MVRV ratio show a sharp decline in unrealized profits, suggesting that the market is maturing and upside is compressed. Taken together, these changes suggest that BTC may be entering a new era, characterized less by parabolic peaks and more by incremental growth driven by institutions.

One ​​Year After BTC Halving: A Cycle Unlike Others

The development of this BTC cycle is significantly different from previous cycles, which may indicate a shift in the way the market reacts to halving events.

In earlier cycles (especially from 2012 to 2016, and from 2016 to 2020), BTC tended to see strong rallies during this phase. The post-halving period is usually accompanied by strong upward momentum and parabolic price action, mainly driven by retail enthusiasm and speculative demand.

However, the current cycle has taken a different path. Rather than accelerating after the halving, prices began to surge ahead of schedule as early as October and December 2024, followed by consolidation in January 2025 and a pullback in late February.

This pre-money behavior is in stark contrast to historical patterns, where halvings typically act as a catalyst for sharp gains.

There are multiple factors contributing to this shift. BTC is no longer just a speculative asset driven by retail investors, it is increasingly being viewed as a mature financial instrument. The growing participation of institutional investors, coupled with macroeconomic pressures and changes in market structure, has led to a more cautious and complex market response.

BTC Cycle Comparison. Source: Bitcoin Cycles Comparison

Another clear sign of this evolution is that the intensity of each cycle is weakening. As BTC's market value grows, the explosive gains of the early years are becoming increasingly difficult to replicate. For example, in the 2020-2024 cycle, BTC rose 436% a year after the halving.

In contrast, the current cycle's gain over the same time period is only 31%, which is much more modest.

This shift could mean that BTC is entering a new chapter, characterized by lower volatility and more stable long-term growth. The halving may no longer be the primary driver, with other factors such as interest rates, liquidity, and institutional funding playing a larger role.

The rules of the game are changing, and so are BTC's trends.

Nevertheless, it is worth noting that previous cycles have also had phases of consolidation and pullbacks before resuming the upward trend. While this phase may feel slower or less exciting, it may still represent a healthy adjustment before the next leg up.

That said, there is still a chance that this cycle will continue to deviate from historical patterns. It may not have a dramatic top-bubble burst, but rather a more persistent and structurally sound uptrend that is driven more by fundamentals than hype.

Long-term holders MVRV ratio reveals BTC's maturing market

The market cap to MVRV ratio of long-term holders (LTH) has been a reliable indicator of unrealized profits. It shows the profits that long-term investors have made before they start selling. But this value is declining over time.

During the 2016-2020 cycle, the LTH MVRV ratio peaked at 35.8, indicating huge paper profits and a clear top in the making. By the 2020-2024 cycle, this peak dropped dramatically to 12.2, even as BTC prices hit all-time highs.

The highest reading of the LTH MVRV ratio so far in this cycle is only 4.35, a huge drop. This shows that long-term holders have received much lower returns than in previous cycles, despite the huge BTC price increases. The trend is clear: the return multiple has been declining with each cycle.

BTC's explosive upside is being compressed and the market is maturing.

Now, in this cycle, the highest reading of the LTH MVRV ratio so far is 4.35. This significant drop shows that long-term holders have received much lower return multiples than in previous cycles, even with the huge BTC price increases. This pattern points to a conclusion: BTC's upside is being compressed. BTC long-term holders MVRV. Source: Glassnode This is no accident. As markets mature, explosive gains are naturally harder to come by. The era of extreme, cycle-driven profit multiples may be fading, replaced by more modest or more stable growth. Growing market size means that exponentially more capital is needed to significantly drive prices higher.

However, this does not confirm that the current cycle has peaked. Previous cycles often included long periods of consolidation or small corrections before reaching new highs.

With institutional investors playing an increasingly important role, the accumulation phase may last longer. Therefore, the peak profit-taking sell-off may not be as sudden as in earlier cycles.

However, if the trend of declining MVRV ratio peaks continues, it may strengthen the view that BTC is shifting from wild, cyclical surges to a more moderate but structured growth pattern.

The most dramatic gains may be over, especially for investors who entered the market late in the cycle.