Outlook after halving in 2025: How to avoid short-selling traps and seize the alpha of AI coins

Original title: Thoughts on Post-Halving Year 2025
Original author: arndxt xo, plumenetwork researcher
Original translation: zhouzhou, BlockBeats

Editor's note:This article analyzes the latest developments in the Bitcoin and crypto markets. The short trap at the beginning of the year led to a correction in Bitcoin prices, while macroeconomic factors such as inflation concerns and a rise in the US dollar index exacerbated market uncertainty. AI agent coins have experienced a sharp correction, but emerging AI coins such as ANON, AVA, and PIPPIN have performed strongly. The meme coin FARTCOIN has also attracted attention and has the potential to become a market leader despite a correction. Coins such as XRP have benefited from Ripple's relationship with the US government and have performed well.

The following is the original content (the original content has been reorganized for easier reading and understanding):

Historically, February is usually a strong month for Bitcoin in halving years.

2017 and 2021 cycles: Bitcoin resumed its upward trend in February after falling in January. 2025 prediction: If history repeats itself, we may see a similar rise this year. Speculation about executive orders related to Bitcoin is brewing in the coming months. Although unconfirmed, such events have historically had a significant impact on the market

Industry Overview

1. Infrastructure and Interoperability

Reduce network tribalism through cross-chain connections.

We are seeing an acceleration in cross-chain development — projects like Superposition (Arbitrum L3) and Abstract (Hydra with Stargate) are rolling out solutions to make asset transfers and data sharing more efficient. LayerZero is expanding its reach to enable applications on Superposition to source liquidity from over 100 connected chains. Meanwhile, Arcana Network has partnered with Scroll to enable users to pay for gas with stablecoins (USDC/USDT) on any chain, a move that significantly simplifies the onboarding process for users.

My take: This highlights the continued push for frictionless interoperability. Being able to seamlessly transfer assets and data across chains (L1 → L2 → L3) is quickly becoming a baseline requirement. Projects that can integrate user-friendly interfaces, gas fee abstractions, and universal bridges have the potential to reduce the “network tribalism” that has historically hindered DeFi adoption. Expect more standardized and potentially more specialized L3s to launch, tailored for unique verticals (e.g., gaming, RWAs, institutional DeFi). 2. Liquidity, Lending & Real World Assets The holy grail of the credit & lending ecosystem. What Happened: Coinbase launched BTC-backed loans for US users, providing a more mainstream audience with the ability to leverage their Bitcoin. Tradable integrated with ZKsync, bringing $1.7 billion worth of tokenized private credit (RWAs) to the network, demonstrating how institutional-grade products can further penetrate DeFi.

plumenetwork has raised over $4.5 billion in assets for tokenization, has $64 million in TVL before the network goes live, and has launched a $25 million RWAfi ecosystem fund.

My take: The blurring of the lines between CeFi and DeFi is a prime example of the industry's maturity. Coinbase's move into crypto lending shows that centralized exchanges are willing to offer products typically associated with DeFi platforms—which could cannibalize DeFi's direct user base, but also validates the effectiveness of on-chain lending as a key financial tool. In addition, RWA integration remains the "holy grail," connecting traditional finance with on-chain liquidity. If this trend continues, DeFi could see stronger returns, deeper liquidity, and higher institutional trust, although regulatory oversight could also increase.

3. Liquid Staking and Synthetic Bitcoin

Innovation in staking mechanisms.

What Happened:

· babylonlabs io launched YBTC, a liquid staking token 1:1 backed by Bitcoin, which has been integrated with pSTAKE.

· BrahmaFi launched the Onchain+ program, bundling multi-chain strategies and an AI agent (ConsoleKit) for automated DeFi operations.

My take: Liquid staking has proven to be a way to unlock additional returns for stakers without losing liquidity. By tokenizing staked assets (such as BTC, ETH, etc.), DeFi participants can use them as collateral or trade them freely. This “double-yield” approach — earning staking rewards and potentially earning DeFi returns — is likely to continue to accelerate. However, there are inherent risks: the more times an asset is “liquidly staked,” the deeper the complexity of the system. Protocols must remain transparent and fully audited to prevent hidden leverage from destabilizing the system.

4. Ecosystem Expansion and Strategic Partnerships

Major user onboarding efforts with enterprises.

What Happened:
· Polygon Labs partnered with Reliance Jio, India’s largest telecom company with 450 million users, to integrate blockchain solutions into the Jio app.

· Ledger integrated Uniswap into Ledger Live Desktop, improving the user experience for hardware wallet enthusiasts.

Abstract prepares its mainnet, hinting at a new wave of multichain products to come.

5. Airdrops, Incentives & Liquidity Mining

Vying for user adoption.
What’s happening:

· Scroll, Quai Network, Fuel, Bubblemaps, and many other projects are launching airdrops or continuing reward seasons, each with their own criteria for community participation.

· Protocols like Vertex (2.1M SEI tokens) and Derive (2M DRV tokens for liquidity providers) continually incentivize user participation, while Nodepay and Solayer offer pre-claim processes or public sales with instant TGE distributions.

My take: Airdrops have proven to be an effective means of paving the way for an initial user base, but they are also becoming a "must-have" competitive strategy for new protocols. With so many projects offering incentives, user fatigue may become a problem. The trick for projects is to provide real utility and not just rely on "incentive chasing". Over time, protocols need to balance incentives with sustainable token economics. The best state is: attracting new users through rewards while providing them with real product value to retain users.

Narrative Overview

BTC Price Action and Macro Impact

The first Monday of the year marked a notable bear trap, with Bitcoin surging after the New York market opened and trading at a premium on Coinbase, leading many to believe that a bull cycle had begun. However, this proved to be a false signal as BTC stalled and fell sharply the next day, with other altcoins following suit.

Key Macro Factors Driving Uncertainty

· Inflation Concerns: Strong labor market data on January 10 (NFP report) hints at underlying inflationary pressures, which could lead to reduced expectations of rate cuts – a bearish sign for stocks and cryptocurrencies.

· U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): reached a new high of 110.

· 10-Year Treasury Yield: rose from 4.6% to 4.8% (YTD).

· S&P 500: retested pre-election prices.

AI agent coins: corrections and opportunities

The AI ​​agent coins that have dominated market attention recently have experienced significant corrections:

·VIRTUAL: -57% from a peak of $5.2 billion. AI16Z: -63% from a peak of $2.5 billion.

·ZEREBRO: -73% from a peak of $820 million.

·FAI: Down to $500 million from a peak of $650 million.

·AIXBT: Still close to all-time highs despite market weakness.

·GOAT: Down -55% and still weak.

Emerging Winners

New AI coins are starting to gain traction, including:

ANON: $20M to $240M

AVA: $60M to $300M

PIPPIN: $15M to $320M

Meme Coins: FARTCOIN and More

FARTCOIN

This meme coin, which is somewhat connected to the AI ​​narrative, experienced a -56% pullback but has rebounded +75% from its lows. It is considered a potential market leader, with some speculating that it could reach a market cap of $5 billion or more. BUTTHOLE and LLM: BUTTHOLE: peaked at $140 million but has fallen -70%. LLM: Correlated with AI Yuan, peaked at $150 million before experiencing a -75% correction. XRP Leading Tokens XRP has outperformed the market, up 6% YTD. Ripple’s relationship with the incoming U.S. administration, and CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s connections to key political figures, have driven bullish sentiment.

Other strong performers in this category include:

HBAR

XLM

ADA

Other Notable Trends

Strong Performers

SPX: broke $1 billion market cap, reaching $1.6 billion, but is now down -30%.

GIGA: Almost reached $1 billion, but faced resistance, down -30%.

SUI: reached a new all-time high ($5.4 billion FDV), down only -13%.

Newly Launched Coins

BIO: First major DeSci protocol launch, FDV is $3 billion, but now down -55%.

GRASS: Showing strength after weeks of choppy trading.

USUAL: Down -66% from all-time highs amid controversy over USD0++ redemption changes.

Caution

FTM: Delisted contract, may have a second chance, but faces major migration issues.

RUNE: Faces risks associated with ThorFi lending, reminiscent of LUNA.

Animal meme coins: POPCAT, WIF, and NEIRO are the worst performing coins YTD, with POPCAT down -73% from its all-time high.