In the first half of this year, the US stock market saw a surge in cryptocurrency IPOs. Following Trump's second term in office, he signed an executive order on cryptocurrency. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) shifted its focus from "enforcement-first" to "cooperation-oriented" and established a new Crypto Assets Working Group, accelerating the listing of a range of high-quality cryptocurrency-related assets. FollowingGalaxy Digital (GLXY), Circle (CRCL)After crypto exchanges last weekBullish Exchangeand information service providersCoinDesk's parent companyBullish (BLSH) also landed on the New York Stock Exchange.

Bullish, which has an impressive company name (which means bullish in English), closed up 84% on the first day of listing.

The current share price is also far higher than the IPO price. Is it still worth investing at this level? Pan Du believes that Bullish is more suitable for short-term trading than long-term holding. text="">USD) compared toUS$60 per sharehas already reflected most of the short-term hype upside; at the same time, considering that another cryptocurrency exchangeGeminion8Month15Submitted's

II. Analysis of Core Business Structure

Bullish's business system is primarily composed of two major segments: Bullish Exchange and CoinDesk, forming a comprehensive ecosystem covering digital asset trading and information services. 1) Bullish Exchange: Compliance-Driven Trading Infrastructure Among similar cryptocurrency exchanges, Bullish maintains strong compliance standards, but its trading volume and product diversity lag behind the competition. Bullish Exchange excels in compliance and has obtained regulatory approvals in multiple jurisdictions, including the United States, Germany, Hong Kong, and Gibraltar, and continues to pursue licenses in other regions. In terms of its trading system, it utilizes a single global order book model, covering spot, futures, and margin trading, and providing supporting liquidity and settlement services. Bullish's total trading volume is projected to reach $546.7 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 38%. However, a comparison of Bullish with Coinbase, the leading regulated exchange, reveals a significant disparity in size. During the same period, Coinbase's trading volume reached $1.2 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 148%. According to CoinMarketCap's recent 24-hour platform trading volume rankings, Bullish ranks between 10th and 15th. Bullish's prospectus disclosed that its 24-year market share for Bitcoin (BTC/USDx) and Ethereum (ETH/USDx) global spot trading volume was approximately $284.8 billion and $144.5 billion, respectively, representing 35% and 44% of similar exchanges. This strength in this niche trading segment reflects its focus on serving institutional investors. Trading spreads are showing a downward trend, reflecting increasingly fierce competition among trading platforms. The average trading spread in 1Q25 was 2.0 bps, a 47% year-on-year decrease. Compared to leading platforms, Bullish's product offerings lag behind those of leading platforms. Currently, it offers over 70 spot trading pairs and over 45 perpetual futures pairs, far fewer than the hundreds of pairs offered by leading platforms. Bullish's primary trading currencies are relatively limited, with Bitcoin and Ethereum accounting for 82% of its total trading volume, compared to only 42% for Coinbase. In terms of client structure, a high concentration of institutional clients is a notable feature. In the first quarter of 2025, the top five clients contributed 83% of adjusted trading revenue and 69% of spot trading volume. This highly concentrated client structure reflects its focus on serving institutional investors, but also presents certain client dependency risks. (II) CoinDesk: A Benchmark in Digital Asset Information Services. CoinDesk, the information services division of Bullish, primarily provides cryptocurrency-related value-added services such as indices, data, and insights, fostering a diversified revenue model. Its index business offers a range of tradable proprietary and single-asset benchmark indices, generating revenue through licensing fees. Its data business provides comprehensive digital asset market data and analytical services, primarily generating revenue through subscriptions and service fees. Its insights business, leveraging its digital media platform, Coindesk.com, generates revenue through advertising, sponsorships, and events. Judging from operational data, this business segment demonstrates strong market influence. Coindesk.com's cumulative reach in 2024 exceeded 82 million; as of the second quarter of 2025, the assets under management covered by its index reached $41 billion, and the number of registered participants at the Consensus Summit exceeded 26,000. These data demonstrate its leading position in the digital asset information services sector. III. Benchmarking with Coinbase Comparing Bullish with Coinbase, the industry leader, provides a clearer understanding of its market positioning and competitive landscape. On the revenue side, Bullish's year-over-year growth rate is slower than Coinbase's. While the trading volume gap between Bullish and Coinbase is narrowing, the gap in trading revenue is widening due to Bullish's narrowing trading spreads, a noteworthy phenomenon. The two companies have similar revenue structures, with trading revenue accounting for over 60% of total revenue, with the remainder primarily coming from subscriptions and services. On the profit side, Bullish's profit margin is significantly lower than Coinbase's. In 2024, Bullish's adjusted EBITDA margins were 24% and 53%, respectively. This difference stems from factors such as scale, operational capabilities, and the proportion of high-margin businesses. Bullish reported a loss in Q1 25, primarily due to the decline in cryptocurrency prices in the first quarter, which led to a decrease in the fair value of investments and digital assets. Adjusted profit was US$2 million, a 50% year-on-year decrease. The rebound in cryptocurrency prices in the second and third quarters helped boost profits. IV. Cryptocurrency Holdings As of June 30, 2025, Bullish held over 20,000 Bitcoin and over 10,000 Ethereum. Based on the market price on August 19, the market value was close to US$3 billion. Bullish's shareholder base and management team provide significant support for its development. Major shareholder Brendan Blumer, co-founder and CEO of Block.One, holds a 28.1% stake following the IPO. Block.One launched EOS in 2017, becoming a rising star in the cryptocurrency market at the time. However, after fundraising, it experienced decline due to resource allocation issues. Among early investors, Peter Thiel participated through Founders Fund and Thiel Capital and served as a senior advisor in the company's early days. His influence in technology and investment brought Bullish considerable resources and attention. However, his specific shareholding ratio and amount have not been disclosed in public documents, but it is likely less than 5%. Regarding management, current CEO Thomas Farley holds a 3.6% stake. His extensive experience in traditional financial markets, formerly COO of the New York Stock Exchange and President of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), will help Bullish achieve breakthroughs in compliance operations and institutional partnerships. VI. Valuation Analysis and Investment Logic (I) Valuation Level Bullish utilizes a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methodology, separating its core business (trading and service subscriptions) from its cryptocurrency holdings. The cryptocurrency portion has a market capitalization of nearly $3 billion. Using the mNAV coefficient of 1.3 to 1.5 for publicly traded companies (excluding pure coin hoarders), the enterprise value of this portion is approximately 4.2 billion yuan. For its core business, we can refer to Coinbase's EV/Revenue multiple of 11.1x for the past four quarters, with a certain discount applied. If calculated at a ratio closer to 9x EV/Revenue, Bullish's core business corresponds to an enterprise value of approximately 2 billion yuan. The combined value is approximately 6.2 billion yuan, while the current market capitalization reflects an enterprise value of approximately 8.6 billion yuan, reflecting the short-term IPO speculation and the fact that much of the upside potential is already priced into the stock price. (II) Investment Highlights: Strong institutional investor and shareholder base: Several narratives can be hyped, which will also help expand institutional clientele; Asset reserves: Large holdings of major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are expected to generate significant fair value appreciation during cryptocurrency price upcycles. (III) Risk Factors: Business Concentration Risk: The excessively high proportion of Bitcoin and Ethereum transactions and the high concentration of top clients can significantly impact the company. Changes in the price of a single asset or in client base can have a significant impact on the company. Profit Volatility: Significantly affected by cryptocurrency market conditions. The losses incurred due to the market decline in the first quarter of 2025 are a typical example. Intensified Industry Competition: Trading spreads continue to narrow, compressing profit margins. The company faces dual pressures from leading platforms and emerging competitors. The IPOs of new cryptocurrency exchanges, such as Gemini, could also impact existing valuations.