Source: Coin Market Trader
On December 24, when most people thought that the adjustment was a foregone conclusion, Bitcoin fell to $92,000, and was suddenly lifted by a mysterious force during the trading session, and then rebounded quickly, rising by nearly 5%. So, what happened that caused the funds to rush to buy the bottom in advance?
On December 24, the stock MSTR of MicroStrategy, the world's largest bull, was officially included in the Nasdaq 100 Index, marking that Bitcoin, once regarded as an alternative asset, officially entered the mainstream investment field. According to data disclosed by Bloomberg, there are currently more than 200 exchange-traded products (ETPs) tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index or its variants, with total assets of approximately $540 billion. MSTR's weight in the Nasdaq 100 is 0.47, which means that MSTR will receive $2.5 billion in passive buying in the future.
Just before MSTR was included in the Nasdaq 100 Index, on October 23, MicroStrategy submitted documents to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) showing that the company is seeking approval to increase the number of authorized Class A common shares and preferred shares. It is worth noting that at the time of submitting the application, MicroStrategy still had $7.08 billion of immediate additional issuance quota unused. Such an eagerness to expand the scale of financing shows that MicroStrategy can't wait to start a new round of Bitcoin purchases. Considering that MicroStrategy will enter a two-week to one-month lock-up period in mid-January next year, its share purchase actions are likely to be implemented intensively in the near future, which will undoubtedly affect the cycle and amplitude of this round of adjustments, and even cause the price of the currency to rebound in advance. Therefore, the bottom of this round of adjustments is likely to be higher than the previously predicted $88,000, and the adjustment is also likely to end before January 20.
During the market shock adjustment, CEX platform coins performed well. Almost all platform coins of mainstream exchanges rose against the trend, among which second-tier platform coins represented by BGB and GT set a record high. There are two main considerations for funds to choose CEX platform coins to break through: First, it is generally believed that "short-term adjustment does not change the long bull market", and "bull market flag bearer" is still the sector with the highest certainty. Second, under the differentiated pattern, the solid fundamentals of platform coins can still support their growth against the trend. According to the destruction data from Q1 to Q3, the current PE of BNB and OKB is only 13 times and 15 times, which is much lower than that of most traditional securities firms. Although the data for Q4 has not been released yet, if calculated according to the market trading volume, the month-on-month revenue growth rate of most exchanges can reach more than three digits (the top DeFi basically increased by 5-10 times). Therefore, before the release of the Q4 data, the author believes that the top platform coins such as BNB and OKB still have the opportunity to repair their valuations.
However, low valuation has the advantages of low valuation, and low valuation also has the disadvantages of low valuation. Although investing in low-valuation platform coins has a higher safety margin, when the cash flow and growth of the entire sector can be clearly predicted, this sector loses its imagination. Therefore, platform coin investment is only suitable for stable investors with low requirements for excess returns.
Recently, there has been a wave of AI Agent hype in the blockchain field. From the perspective of market performance, the direction of capital speculation is mainly concentrated in two areas: one is AI DAO, which explores intelligent investment auxiliary tools and interesting meme coin issuance models, with representative projects such as Ai16z; the other is to build an incentive layer for open AI systems (games, metaverse, social, etc.), with representative projects such as Virtual. However, most of these projects remain at the stage of hype concepts, and there is still a long way to go before the ultimate goal of AI Agents to achieve autonomous perception of the environment, learning, decision-making and execution of tasks. Compared with leading projects such as ARKM, RENDER, and TAO in the previous round of AI market, the current round of AI+ projects seems simple and empty. Therefore, the author does not think that the current hot projects truly represent AI Agents in the blockchain field.
If you want to pick out the potential direction, the author believes that the development of the AI incentive layer is more in line with the core value of blockchain. After all, the core value of blockchain lies in data, and the foundation of intelligent learning and decision-making also depends on data. Blockchain provides a unique advantage for the development of AI - a decentralized and incentivized ecosystem that allows developers and users to jointly participate in the construction and optimization of AI systems.
With the empowerment of blockchain, the evolution of AI is no longer limited to the control of a few giants or centralized platforms, but can be jointly promoted by participants around the world. Each participant can contribute their own ideas, data or algorithms through the incentive mechanism of blockchain, thereby promoting the continuous optimization and innovation of the system. For example, to enable AI companions to have more natural and emotional interaction capabilities, traditional algorithm training and data collection alone are obviously not enough. AI companions need to continuously learn and evolve through real-time interaction with users, and this interaction is not just technical training, it also includes users' emotions, creativity and expression. Developers can contribute new emotion recognition algorithms, users can help AI understand and respond to emotions more accurately through their own behavioral data and language input, and creators can design more creative interaction methods and personalized functions. Through the incentive mechanism of blockchain, these contributions will be fairly rewarded and promote the continuous upgrading and improvement of AI systems.
In general, the combination of blockchain and AI Agent mainly plays an enabling role. With the help of blockchain, an open, fair and transparent platform, it can fully stimulate the enthusiasm of all participants in the ecosystem, ensure that their achievements are protected to the greatest extent, and provide them with effective channels for monetization. If you have to pick a taller one among the dwarfs, I think Virtual's narrative potential will be significantly stronger than Ai16z.
In terms of operation, although the market has entered a period of adjustment, the residual heat of the bull market still exists. Funds will continue to choose the right direction to break through, and the market will never lack trading opportunities. For stable investors, the top platform coins are a good choice. For speculators who are keen on emotional games, AI Agent is undoubtedly a direction with higher odds.
Catherine
Weatherly
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Weiliang