Author: Shanks Twitter@Shanks_A9z; Source: SevenUp DAO
Contents:
1. Data collation (taking PUMP as an example)
2. Thorough and clear strategy
3. Cleverly understand trading-mental accounting
4. Detailed description of specific strategy execution
leaf="">Foreword:
You still need to communicate to realize that some problems are pain points.
In fact, many people are troubled by the fact that it is too difficult for small funds to grow, and this difficulty seems to be comparable to climbing to the sky.
But in fact, it is not. If small funds want to grow, or come to the primary market, the most important thing is to establish their own trading system. (I am a little annoyed with myself when I type this sentence)Everyone can talk about this broken truth, but no one talks about the real situation. No one will talk about how to establish and how to thoroughly clarify this trading system.
It doesn’t matter, I talk and I write. My writing style has always been a bit rough, and the wording in many places may be inappropriate and too straightforward, without any nonsense or all-encompassing words. But there is nothing wrong with it, this market needs someone to write about these things.
In addition, this article is mostly text, which may be a bit troublesome to read. Friends who are familiar with me should know that when I write something, practicality and real practical operation are the first priority. So I think this article is still very valuable. If you feel confused, be a little patient and read it carefully, you will gain something.
Combining my own experience and experience, I will write about the specific strategies and paths from a few hundred U to over 1 million U.
So far, I haven't completely mastered A8. In fact, I am not as good as some other powerful big brothers. So I have no practical experience in the path to A8.5 and A9, so I can't write about it.
Then as for my journey, I don't think I am very successful now, so I won't write about it for now. I will brag about my achievements after I cross 5 million U one day.
No more idle talk. How small is the small capital of retail investors? Some are a few hundred U, and some are more, 1K~10,000 U. Here, let's start with 300U. So this article is just a real path strategy of 3 million U-1 million U in the primary MEME market, which should help everyone avoid some detours.
(In addition, all the calculated data and processing in this article are definitely biased, and the calculation of data is only one of the criteria for judging the pros and cons)
First, some data analysis.
On April 15, 43,271 MEME coins were born from pump. However, the number of tokens that graduated (fully launched) was only 408.
The graduation rate is only 0.94%, less than 1%, and 99% of the tokens died in the inner market.
The data of the 408 tokens fully launched are as follows.
Strategy classification is nothing more than: more/fewer times of attack + pursuit of high/low profits
Combined, the following four strategy models will emerge:
1. Model with more times of attack + pursuit of high profit rate
2. Model with more times of attack + pursuit of high profit rate
leaf="">2. Model with many moves + pursuit of low profit rate
3. Model with few moves + pursuit of high profit rate
4. Model with few moves + pursuit of low profit rate
Next, we will thoroughly and clearly quantify the situation and advantages and disadvantages of these four strategies from a mathematical point of view.
Since this article is about strategies for starting with small funds, the following analysis will be based on 300U (like you, my initial starting capital is this number). As for strategies with more funds, that is, 10,000U~200,000U and 200,000U~1 millionU, they will be discussed later.
If it is 300U, it is currently 2.4SOL, so calculate it as 2.5SOL.
Let me clarify the issue of profit percentage here. Because of the issue of GAS and bribery, if you sell at 0.1SOL each time, the loss of each transaction (calculated at the standard speed) is about 0.005SOL. If you only want to protect your capital, you also have to sell another transaction, and the loss is also 0.005SOL. The total loss of the two transactions is 0.01SOL. That is, after you buy, you must have at least 10% profit, and then sell all to get back your capital. If the book profit is less than 10%, it is a loss.
1.Model of many shots + pursuit of high profit rate
For the convenience of calculation, let's not consider the loss of trading for now. Since it is a model of many shots + pursuit of high profit, then within a day, you have 2.5SOL, 0.1 each time, and you have made 25 shots. No stop loss operation is performed in order to pursue high critical hits.
If you bring a strategy of doubling your investment. You have made 25 shots. If you want to get a profit back, you need to hit a high critical hit at least once. Then the increase required this time is 4800%, which is 48 times.
If you want to get this kind of multiple, there is only one way, that is to buy in the inner market (among 43271 coins) and get tokens with a market value of more than 100K (16 coins). You have 25 chances, so after calculation, if you only hit it once, the probability of at least getting your money back is 0.92%, and the corresponding probability of your loss is 99.08%.
If you don't have a strategy to double your investment, then the increase you need this time is 2500%, which is 25 times.
Calculated according to the average market value (the average market value of 53K-100K is 76.5K, corresponding to 25 times, you need to get on board at 3.06K, but the initial market value of PUMP is 3.8K), so you still have only one path, that is, from the inner plate to the plate of more than 100K. After calculation, the probability that you can at least get your money back is still 0.92%. If the 95K plate is included, the probability that you can at least get your money back is about 0.92%-2.06%. The corresponding probability of loss is still around 98%.
To summarize, why does this happen? Why is your probability of loss so high? The reason is very simple, your principal is not enough. This is not enough, which means that you don’t have at least 500SOL.
The leaders who often participate in PVP every day, what they won't tell you is that they have more than 2,000 SOLs in their pockets, but they only put 2 to 10 SOLs in each time. They have enough capital and patience to get a critical hit of their own, so as to cover all losses and even make a big profit.
Mathematically speaking, it is the most appropriate to adopt this strategy for their capital size.
If a small amount of capital adopts this strategy, unless your luck and talent are extremely amazing, in just a dozen or so shots, as a novice, you can buy super high-multiple tokens from more than 40,000 tokens and keep them until the end, otherwise you will gradually lose all your capital. 2. High number of shots + pursuit of low profit rate model If you play on PUMP, the average increase is about 663%. We set the stop profit point at 15%~100% as a low profit rate setting. Then in fact, any space can accommodate 100% of our profits. There are more cases of division. (3.8K~53K) That is, the inner market. If you buy, the most feasible strategy is to call others to come in and take your market. If you want to stop profit at a low profit margin, you just need to run after a few dozen points.
This is relatively easy to do, because the market value of the inner market is low, and the buying requirements to bring about the increase are very low. Under the current circumstances, if you want to double the inner market, you can call for about 4000U of buying. About 40 people will do. This is not difficult to do. After getting on the bus, send CA to each group, especially the high-quality groups, it is best to bring a narrative that can FOMO others. This strategy is also what some people have been doing after thoroughly quantifying and thinking clearly.
(53K-100K)You need a relatively large buying order, which requires you to call more people to take your order. The conditions are already quite harsh. The number of people you need to call cannot be achieved by just sending a group message by yourself. You can only choose based on your own understanding. However, we are only discussing mathematical probability here, so excluding the experience factor, it is very difficult to play this model in this section. In addition, everyone knows that PUMP is fine if it is not launched, and the majority of people will be poured in seconds after the launch. The gold content of this section is almost zero.
(100K-500K)What does the increase in this section generally consist of? 1. Small car head. 2. The authenticity of the narrative (a little bit of stalk and spread is enough). We cannot say that we rely on the buying and following orders of other small-cap stocks, so the only thing left is our experience and judgment in narrative. Still the same, excluding this factor, let's take a look at the mathematical data.
According to the data, we can know that there are 16 plates with a value of more than 100K, of which 50% are less than 500K, the rest are more than 500K, and the sum is more than 1M. This data is extremely impressive. If we make a move every time, the winning rate is about 43%, and the rough number of the total profit is 125%~675%. Is this conclusion very unexpected to you?
(500K-1m)+(>1M). These two are of the same category. In this range, there are three conditions for the increase: 1. The big-cap stocks enter the market. 2. The market maker. 3. Narratives at T2 level and above. Similarly, whether the big head comes or not is an uncontrollable factor, unless you are his biological father. Then there are two left, judging whether there is a banker, and judging the narrative and the degree of dissemination.
These two are also highly empirical factors. Mathematically speaking, we do not consider the impact of this empirical factor, and each one is added. Then the rough figure of your comprehensive profit rate is 223%~1250%~no upper limit. The reason why this number fluctuates so much is related to your profit stop point. 3. The model of few shots + pursuit of high profit rate seems to be very contradictory. It requires extremely high ability and experience. At the same time, your experience factor has the most influence on this strategy. This strategy will not be explained in detail, and it has no guiding significance from the perspective of novice retail investors.
But it seems that I have bolded two words. If you are not a small-capital retail investor, then this model is not contradictory at times. If you have enough experience and strong ability, there is nothing wrong with spending time pursuing this model. 4. Model with few moves + pursuit of low profit rate The conditions are as follows: few moves (controlled within 1~3 times, low profit rate, set to 100% as the upper limit of profit taking, and the upper profit point ranges from 25% to 100%. The amount of each move is 0.5 SOL). In this model, 100K is an important watershed due to quantity reasons. We merge intervals and set the upper limit of intervals greater than 100K to 5M. Under the condition of understanding this situation. We began to calculate the expected return of our small number of shots (average 2 times, 0.5SOL each time) + pursuit of low profit rate model (average 62.5% stop profit) in these two intervals, as shown in the figure.
I don't know if you realize it,This data is very enlightening. Why? Because in the 100K-5M range, your profit trigger probability is as high as 99.67%. You may not feel it strongly, then, on the contrary, if you enter the transaction in this range, mathematically speaking, your failure probability is only 0.33%.
That's right, less action + pursuit of low profit rate model, this is the best solution among all these strategies.
Summary:When starting with a small amount of capital, excluding the influence of experience and ability factors, there are four situations. The data in the figure below is more realistic and covers a wider range.
All the above have never mentioned the mentality, which is a factor that greatly affects the transaction. Why is this so? Please listen to me.
At the beginning of this stage, as a retail investor with a small amount of capital, when you first enter this market, in addition to setting up your capital account, I will introduce another account for you here - the psychological account, which is extremely important. Since it is an account, let me talk about the pros and cons of the increase and decrease of the psychological account.
The disadvantages of the vicious cycle of the psychological account
The situation of many people is that after entering this market, they look at the myth of wealth. They learn from them and start to rush and rush in the market, always fantasizing that they can catch the next 10X, 100X. Rushing around, constantly suffering losses, always cutting meat. In this process, your psychological account has never grown, and is constantly being consumed. You have less and less courage, and you are more and more doubtful and unconfident about yourself.
When you fail many times in a row, why do you dare to bet to win the next time?
Being influenced, they habitually believe that if small funds want to grow, they must pursue extremely high multiples of coins from the beginning, and look down on those relatively certain speculative opportunities. The dog has never stopped, but has never seriously stopped to think about what kind of strategy is suitable for itself, and has never clearly quantified what specific strategy is reasonable and executable.
I don’t know anything else, but I know one thing anyway, the odds are more important than everything. So without thinking about my own trading system, I eventually fell into an infinite downward death spiral and left the market sadly.
It’s sad that this happened. Imagine that one day, after going through countless hardships, you really stand in front of the dragon. You seem to realize that if you swing your sword, you will reach the heavenly realm. However, your sword is already rotten, and you have exhausted your initial courage and energy. Even if you swing your sword, you can't cut off the dragon's proud head, or you don't even have the courage to swing your sword.
When you see this, I hope you stop, think back to my analysis, and think about it seriously. Thoroughly clarify what specific strategy to adopt.
The benefits of a virtuous cycle of mental accounts
It goes without saying. You have confidence, you are becoming more and more confident, and you are no longer wasting energy. Your mood is greatly relieved every day, and it is easier to calm down and think. When facing a big opportunity, you will understand it more easily and you will dare to take action. There are many benefits, so I will not repeat them.
How to execute it specifically? Here I will explain it to you in detail.
Specific strategies for 350U~200,000U
First, divide your 2.5SOL fund account into two categories. The first category is the trading account, which contains 1.5SOL.
Each time you make a move, control 10% of the total amount of this trading account, that is, 0.15S0L.
At the beginning, it is best to start trading on MEME that has successfully bottomed out. For example, just take the recent $RFC, $DARK, etc. Start to follow the trend to trade in waves. There are not many opportunities every day, please be patient. Otherwise, the probability of stop loss will be relatively high. Wait for a good position to enter, and take profit after a few dozen points of increase. Strictly control your hands and don't pursue high profits.
If you continue in this way, you will continue to accumulate your experience and grow your mental account.
And the remaining 1SOL is put into a reserve account. Don't touch the amount in this account often. This account is to exercise your ability to judge large-scale deterministic opportunities.
What kind of large-scale deterministic opportunities are there? This will not happen very often. Here are a few classic examples. For example, in November, Binance suddenly announced the launch of ACT, and the price rose 25 times in one afternoon after the announcement. Later, the AI trend started to gain momentum, and the leading stocks all rose on that day. Trump suddenly issued a coin that day.
Whenever you encounter this situation, make your judgment and then buy 30% of this account.
When you can hit the target more than three times in a row, you will have a preliminary ability to judge such events. After that, when you encounter this kind of situation, you can choose to go all-in on this account and keep rolling your positions.
Execute this strategy and continue. Your principal will grow from 300U to 200,000U.
Strategy for 200,000U~1 millionU
After A7, you will have a great sense of accomplishment. If you take out 50,000U to relax and satisfy your material desires, your mentality will greatly improve. Believe me. You will not be bothered by the trivialities of life. These aspects will greatly strengthen your psychological account.
At the A7 stage, your psychological account is very strong and you have rich experience. At this time, you need to calm down and think more.
One path is to reduce the number of shots, participate in more transactions of formed MEME, and think and look for opportunities every day. But please remember, after you have this money, don't go all in, don't go all in, don't go all in!! Take out 20% to trade. 150,000 U in this cycle, it is certain that you can cross 1 million U.
Another path is PVP, investing in new listings. Your principal is enough for your trial and error, and your mental account reserves are sufficient. It is possible to cover all losses or make huge profits through enough shots.
MEME seems to have been divided into two eras, one is the pre-Trump era, and the other is the post-Trump era, which is now.
Those who got Trump's money took away huge amounts of liquidity, partying every night and even retired. Those who didn't get Trump's money still struggle in this market every day, often hitting walls everywhere, working very hard but hardly gaining anything.
I'm not good at long-winded psychological massage. For me, the sentence that has always inspired me is: the market is always born in despair.
Let me talk about my experience. At the end of 23, when I was in another market, the liquidity of the market was completely exhausted. At the same time, that was my low point, filled with confusion about the future and unwillingness to accept myself.
I was very angry, very unwilling, and hated myself very much. Why am I not the one who makes money? Why do I always lose money? Why can't I get the life I want? Why didn't I seize any of those opportunities?
But I think what makes me different is that even if I was desperate at that time, I still insisted on staying in the market. I was trying to verify: the market is always born in despair. Is this sentence right?
Later one day, I hit the mark, I got on the chariot of salvation that always appears in the desperate market, I took off with the wind, and I survived. I don't think I had any skills to hit this at that time, it was just that I was more persistent
Don't say that there is no realm of enlightenment in the world, you can see the secrets of heaven in the depths of the abyss.
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