Powell is about to step down. Who will be the next "money printing boss"?

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term will officially end in May 2026. But the Trump administration's planning has already begun—Trump and Treasury Secretary Bensoner are attempting to gain control of key voting rights on the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) by securing substantial control of monetary policy by the first half of 2026. Currently, the Trump campaign has secured three seats, with Stephen Miran replacing Adriana Kugler. With Governor Lisa Cook facing resignation due to allegations of mortgage fraud, the Trump campaign is just one seat away from securing a majority on the seven-member board.

From the introduction of the "shadow chair" concept to the quiet allocation of seats on the board, the battle for control of the Federal Reserve is reshaping the future of cryptocurrency. According to prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, several cryptocurrency-friendly candidates are vying for this key position, leading to a significant divergence in market expectations for the next Federal Reserve Chair. Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller are the top three favorites, holding significant odds. Other candidates, including Bowman and Bessant, have odds of 1% or less. Notably, Musk also appears on Polymarket's odds list, currently ranking last. On September 5th, Trump confirmed Kevin Hassett (Director of the White House National Economic Council), Kevin Warsh (former Federal Reserve Governor), and Christopher Waller (current Federal Reserve Governor) as his "top three" candidates to replace Powell. 1. Kevin Hassett: Prediction Market Leader Kevin Hassett, current Director of the White House National Economic Council, leads the prediction market with a 29% probability on Kalshi and an 8% probability on Polymarket. The 63-year-old economist holds a prominent position in the Trump campaign. He served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers from 2017 to 2019, was one of the key architects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act during Trump's first term, and provided economic policy advice to Trump during his 2024 presidential campaign. Regarding his crypto stance, according to financial disclosure documents filed in June of this year, Hassett holds between $1 million and $5 million worth of Coinbase stock, derived from compensation for his work as a Coinbase advisor. His total assets are at least $7.6 million, including speaking fees from institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Citigroup. Hassett is a quintessential dovish on monetary policy. He has repeatedly publicly criticized Powell's decision to maintain high interest rates, arguing that the Fed should be more aggressive in lowering rates to support economic growth. Trump repeatedly praised Hassett on CNBC's "Squawk Box" in August of this year, identifying the "Kevins" (Hassett and Warsh) as top candidates for Fed Chair. 2. Kevin Warsh: "Estée Lauder's Son-in-Law" Kevin Warsh came in second with a 19% probability from Kalshi and a 13% probability from Polymarket. His background is a perfect blend of Wall Street and Washington. In 2006, at the age of 35, Warsh was appointed to the Federal Reserve Board by then-President George W. Bush, becoming the youngest governor in Fed history. During the 2008 financial crisis, he served as a key liaison between the Federal Reserve and Wall Street, orchestrating the sale of Bear Stearns to JPMorgan Chase and participating in the decision-making process leading to the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Warsh's personal background is equally noteworthy. His wife, Jane Lauder, is the heiress to the Estée Lauder cosmetics empire, with a net worth exceeding $2 billion. His father-in-law, Ronald Lauder, is not only a longtime friend and former financial backer of Trump, but was also the one who first proposed the US purchase of Greenland during Trump's first term. Warsh's extensive network of political and business connections gives him unique influence in Washington. Warsh has a pragmatic yet cautious stance on cryptocurrency, having previously invested as an angel investor in the algorithmic stablecoin project Basis and the crypto index fund manager Bitwise. In a 2021 interview with CNBC, Warsh stated, "In the current environment of significant monetary policy shifts, Bitcoin makes sense as part of a portfolio. It's gaining new life as an alternative currency, and if you're under 40, Bitcoin is your new gold." He also noted that part of Bitcoin's rise stemmed from a "bid shift" from gold, noting that Bitcoin's price volatility severely undermined its role as a reliable unit of account or effective means of payment. Furthermore, in a 2022 Wall Street Journal op-ed, Warsh supported the issuance of a US central bank digital currency (CBDC) to counter China's digital yuan. This stance sparked criticism from the crypto community, who argued it could threaten decentralization. 3. Christopher Waller: A staunch supporter of stablecoins. Current Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller ranked third with a probability of 17% from Kalshi and 14% from Polymarket. He is arguably the most positive current Fed official on cryptocurrency. Waller has served as a Federal Reserve Governor since 2020. Previously, he served as Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and is a leading expert in monetary economics. Waller's support for stablecoins is particularly noteworthy. At the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in August of this year, he described the transformation of the payment system as a "technology-driven revolution" and explicitly stated that "stablecoins have the potential to maintain and expand the international role of the US dollar." He believes that stablecoins, with their 24/7 availability, near-instant settlement speed, and unrestricted liquidity, have become particularly useful financial tools, especially in inflationary economies or regions with limited banking services. Waller believes that stablecoins actually strengthen, rather than weaken, the global status of the US dollar. In a speech at "A Very Stable Conference" in February of this year, he compared stablecoins to "synthetic dollars," complementing Bitcoin's "digital gold." He also praised the recently passed GENIUS Act, believing it represents a significant milestone in US digital asset regulation and provides a foundation for the responsible expansion of stablecoins. Waller insists that innovation should primarily come from the private sector and opposes the Federal Reserve issuing a CBDC. Other Potential Candidates 4. Michelle Bowman: A Reformer Emerging from Within Despite having only a 1% probability in the prediction market, Michelle Bowman, the current Vice Chair for Bank Supervision at the Federal Reserve, should not be overlooked. A direct nominee to the Federal Reserve Board by Trump in 2018, she was promoted to Vice Chair for Bank Supervision in May of this year, holding a key voice in the development of stablecoin regulations. Bowman has demonstrated an open attitude toward cryptocurrencies. In an August speech, she argued that banks should support the digital asset movement and that the Federal Reserve should provide rules that do not hinder the industry's development. She emphasized that "regulators must recognize the unique characteristics of these new assets and distinguish them from traditional financial instruments or banking products." She even suggested that Federal Reserve staff should be allowed to hold small amounts of crypto assets in order to "develop a working understanding of the underlying functionality." Bowman believes that tokenization can speed up the transfer of ownership, reduce costs, and mitigate "well-known risks," and that stablecoins "will become a fixture of the financial system." She criticized "overly cautious attitudes" and advocated for a "pragmatic, transparent, and tailored" regulatory framework. At the September 2024 FOMC meeting, she voted against a significant 50 basis point rate cut in favor of a more modest 25 basis point cut, a stance of independence that earned her the admiration of Trump. 5. Scott Bessent: Current Treasury Secretary, Bessent explicitly stated in a July speech that "cryptocurrencies are not a threat to the dollar, and stablecoins can actually strengthen its hegemony." While he explicitly stated he would not use fiscal funds to purchase Bitcoin, he supports using government-confiscated crypto assets to build reserves, currently valued at approximately $15-20 billion. 6. Judy Shelton: Economist, Shelton's views may be the most revolutionary. A staunch advocate of the gold standard, Shelton has long criticized the Federal Reserve's excessive power, even comparing it to the Soviet Union's centrally planned economy. She believes the Fed's 2% inflation target is a disguised plunder of public wealth. Shelton sees a common ground between the gold standard and cryptocurrency, once stating, "I like the idea of ​​a gold standard currency, and it could even be implemented in a cryptocurrency." 7. Roger W. Ferguson Jr.: Former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he represents the voice of the traditional financial establishment. Ferguson led the Federal Reserve's initial response to 9/11, ensuring the smooth functioning of the U.S. financial system. While he hasn't publicly expressed a clear position on cryptocurrencies, he has emphasized the importance of maintaining the Fed's independence and warned against political interference that could undermine U.S. economic leadership. 8. Arthur Laffer: The father of supply-side economics, creator of the famous "Laffer Curve," and one of the architects of Reaganomics. Laffer viewed Bitcoin as a "private rules-based money," similar to the gold standard, that could promote global monetary progress and align with supply-side economic principles (reducing government intervention and promoting growth). 9. Larry Kudlow: Former Director of the White House National Economic Council. He has been relatively cautious about cryptocurrencies but has gradually become more open to them. Kudlow's criticism of Bitcoin in 2019 was considered by the crypto community as "the best argument for why we need Bitcoin." But by 2022, he began warning on Fox Business Channel's show that "radical progressives will try to regulate digital currencies," opposing excessive regulation of cryptocurrencies. 10. Ron Paul: A former Texas congressman with a strong reputation among libertarians and the Bitcoin community. Paul, who began his career as a critic of the Federal Reserve, gradually became a staunch Bitcoin supporter. He declared that the only way to avoid a Fed-induced recession was to encourage people to use alternative currencies like Bitcoin and exempt cryptocurrencies from capital gains tax. 11. Chamath Palihapitiya: A billionaire venture capitalist and one of Silicon Valley's most influential Bitcoin advocates. Palihapitiya once held a large amount of Bitcoin, and although he later regretted selling $3-4 billion worth of Bitcoin, he remains a staunch supporter of the cryptocurrency. He proposed that the government could use its Bitcoin holdings to launch a U.S. sovereign wealth fund, raising $50-100 billion through lending rather than selling Bitcoin. 12. Howard Lutnick: Current Secretary of Commerce and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald. Lutnick's company is the primary custodian of Tether (the issuer of USDT), holding tens of billions of dollars in U.S. Treasury bonds backing USDT. His son, Brandon Lutnick, also partnered with SoftBank, Tether, and Bitfinex this year to establish a $3 billion Bitcoin investment fund. While these candidates face long odds in prediction markets, their differing attitudes toward cryptocurrencies reflect the diverse understanding of digital assets among U.S. policymakers. From Bessant's vision of a "crypto superpower" to Paul's philosophy of monetary freedom, from Lutnick's business practices to Laffer's underlying economic theories, each perspective offers unique insights into the Federal Reserve's potential future direction for cryptocurrency policy. With personnel changes, loosening policies, and a softening stance, the Federal Reserve, an institution that once made the crypto market "tread on thin ice," is now renewing its dialogue with the industry. Market Expectations: Is an Era of Massive Flowing Money Imminent? In an interview with Kyle Chasse, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz explicitly stated, "The next Fed Chair could be the biggest bull catalyst for Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency sector." Novogratz predicted that if Trump appoints an "extremely dovish" Fed Chair who slashes interest rates when they shouldn't, Bitcoin could reach $200,000. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, in his latest article, "Four, Seven," even predicted that Bitcoin's price would reach a whopping $3.4 million. He concluded that if the Trump administration implemented yield curve control (YCC) by controlling the Fed, it could create as much as $15.2 trillion in credit. Based on the historical correlation of "for every $1 of credit created, Bitcoin rises $0.19," Bitcoin would reach $3.4 million. However, Novogratz also warned that this scenario "would be really bad for the United States." He argued that while this aggressive monetary policy would be positive for cryptocurrencies, it would come at the cost of the Federal Reserve's independence and severe damage to the US economy. Hayes also believes that the Fed would be forced to purchase large quantities of long-term Treasury bonds to lower interest rates, giving regional banks more room to lend to support small and medium-sized enterprises, and injecting liquidity on a scale far exceeding that seen during the 2020 pandemic. This "poor man's quantitative easing 4.0" policy would shift the power of credit creation from Wall Street to small and medium-sized banks on Main Street. Conclusion: Waiting for the shoe to drop As Novogratz noted, the "political situation" makes predicting the top of the Bitcoin cycle more difficult than ever. The Fed's personnel changes have always been more than just a bureaucratic procedure; they have been a catalyst for reshaping the entire crypto landscape. From the SEC's softening stance to the FDIC's easing of restrictions, from the approval of Bitcoin ETFs to the advancement of stablecoin legislation, each easing of the regulatory environment is paving the way for this impending shift in monetary policy. Polymarket data shows a 44% probability that Trump will not announce the next Federal Reserve Chair this year, meaning the market may have to wait several months for a clear direction. However, judging by the backgrounds of the current leading candidates, regardless of who ultimately takes the helm, they generally demonstrate a greater openness to financial innovation. This shift is not accidental; an irreversible trend has already taken shape: with BlackRock managing the largest Bitcoin ETF, a Federal Reserve governor openly supporting stablecoins, and the Treasury Secretary stating that "cryptocurrencies are not a threat to the US dollar"—the highest echelons of traditional finance have opened their doors to digital assets, signaling the advent of a more cryptocurrency-friendly regulatory era. For the crypto industry, whoever ultimately takes the helm needs to prepare for the impending "era of massive money printing."