Author: Tom Mitchelhill, Cointelegraph; Compiled by: Deng Tong, Golden Finance
Anonymous cryptocurrency trader Rekt Capital said that before the pre-halving rally began in February, Bitcoin investment Investors may only have two weeks to buy Bitcoin at a "cheap" price.
Rekt said in a post to its 349,000 followers on January 29 that market behavior surrounding Bitcoin’s halving typically occurs in five phases, with the first three occurring after the halving Before.
Rekt noted that In previous Bitcoin halvings, there have often been sharp drops in the first few months, leading to "spectacular" returns for investors, and 2024 appears to be the year No exception.
The Bitcoin halving (currently scheduled for April), when mining rewards for Bitcoin miners are cut in half, is widely seen as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin prices.
Rekt pointed out that Bitcoin has already experienced a correction of about 18% in January. He said that there is now a two-week window in which Bitcoin can expect another significant correction.
"Generally speaking, any retracement during this period is likely to represent one of Bitcoin's last dip buying opportunities before the halving."
Thereafter,Bitcoin tends to enter what Rekt calls the “pre-rebound” phase approximately 60 days after the halving event.
As shown by the light blue box in the attached image,short-term traders try to “buy the hype” before the halving, but later “sell” it during the actual halving Break the news”.
The narrative of “buying the hype” created the pre-halving rally and then “selling” before the halving. Source: RektCapital
This "sell news" event typically occurs one to three weeks after the halving, or what Rekt calls a "pre-halving retracement." In 2016, the price fell by 38% in the weeks leading up to the halving, while in 2020 it fell by 20%.
After the successful halving, Rekt details a long and “boring” period with price action mostly sideways and many investors “Shocked” by disappointment over post-halving price action. Historically, this has lasted an average of 150 days.
Finally, Rekt explains that Bitcoin has entered a so-called “parabolic uptrend” phase, in which it experiences accelerated growth after months of sideways swings and general accumulation. stage.
While Rekt places the halving as central to Bitcoin’s price action, not all market participants agree, with some experts claiming that the halving is increasingly less useful as an indicator of price action .
Speaking on a panel titled “Is the Price Cycle Halving Bullshit?” Swan Bitcoin Chief Investment Officer Ralph Zagury said, “Liquidity” – not Halving - will play a more important role in affecting the price of Bitcoin in 2024.
Zagury said: "Liquidity is indeed the driver of the market, so the halving will not affect the price."
In the future, BTC will absorb all long-term capital. If Microsoft replaces the "wasted" capital from stock repurchases with BTC, it will more effectively push up Microsoft's stock price. Therefore, Microsoft should adopt the BTC strategy and hoard BTC.
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