Review of last year's 2049 essay: How many opportunities were missed?

Author: 2898

Twitter: @punk2898

I didn't expect that some people still remember last year's essay, what did everyone say about 2049 before it skyrocketed 10 times?

The mainstream voice of the market is the externalization of market sentiment, so we should pay attention to those non-mainstream and harsh views

Article Outline:

2049 before it skyrocketed 10 times Is everyone optimistic?

Which non-mainstream views have become mainstream?

Which beautiful hopes have not been realized?

It seems that GPT is the best at analyzing the market?

Begin the main text.

1.Are you optimistic about 2049 before the surge?

Let’s first look at the overall sentiment of last year. Are you right?

1. 60% of the participants were cautiously optimistic about the trend of BTC

Result: Completely wrong

2. Investment and technology: Token2049 is a stage for capital docking, not a gathering place for technological innovation

Result: Completely correct

Last year's zKEVM technology iteration gave birth to public chains such as ZKFair and Merlin; in hindsight, this foresight explosion

2. The AI ​​track has become an aggressive track for the US Crypto Fund to gamble on.

DePin&Al, which started at the end of last year, is one of the most dazzling tracks in this round of Mavericks

Look forward to Jocy's insights in this round

The special viewpoint raised by Will Wang @willwangtf is very interesting. His "retail cycle of quantitative easing of the US dollar" is very accurate in retrospect.

1. The Bitcoin halving cycle is only a small cycle. The real big cycle is from the birth of the industry to the present, that is, the "retail cycle of quantitative easing of the US dollar". Whether it can evolve into a market with a high proportion of institutions in the future needs attention.

Now everyone is waiting for the Fed to cut interest rates.

2. There is a general lack of long-termism and basic trust in the industry, but too much focus on infrastructure may lead to "aesthetic fatigue".

At that time, L2 had not yet blossomed everywhere. Now everyone is discussing where to apply it?

Although long-termism will miss the short-term scenery, the wind of rationality will blow from the past to the present, earning long-term and stable returns.

加密韋馱 @thecryptoskanda This is a hot topic, but the interesting thing is that it is completely accurate, but in an unexpected way.

1. Excellent builders and degens are essentially the same group of people, but with different goals and means. The former is to get rich by increasing valuations in a bull market, while the latter is to achieve profits by "cutting leeks".

2. In the next round of the market, all pure investment structures CryptoVC that claim to be institutions will no longer exist, including the author's AC company.

This round, everyone is scolding VC coins, and VCs are scolding leeks for not taking over. This prosperous era is what you wish for.

Godot Godot @GodotSancho All non-mainstream views are hit

1. ZKP, modularization, Intent+AA have received attention, but have not been widely used.

In the previous Mavericks, modularization was repeatedly hyped

2. AA wallets and gas-free chains may be the key to solving the usage threshold problem.

Now AA wallet applications are becoming more and more common, and there are already very mature AA wallet service providers.

3. "The bear market has a spotlight effect", that is, once an application explodes, it will easily attract the attention of funds.

Inscriptions and MEME have verified this view

Third,What beautiful hopes have not been realized?

We have beautiful expectations, but reality tells us again and again that we can have beautiful expectations, but reality is very complicated.

1. If the BlackRock ETF application is successful, the scale of the circle may increase significantly.

No, BTC has increased, but the scale of the currency circle has not increased significantly. Do the continuously unlocked VC coins count?

2. If Bitcoin and Ethereum can undertake new historical missions and narratives, their value may be newly recognized.

Bitcoin has a new narrative, Ethereum has fallen into narrative exhaustion; V God has become Little V, V Cut

3. Although Layer1 has not received widespread consensus, differences may generate Alpha returns.

No new L1 has emerged.

4. From a "metaphysical perspective", Friendtech touches on a certain essence of the prosperity of the Crypto industry, namely the unique trust relationship.

FT has falsified this track by itself.

5. Although Web3 has the potential to subvert Web2, this subversion may be more difficult than expected due to the problem of vested interests. Vested interests cannot complete self-revolution.

Web3 has no ability to subvert Web2, but Web2 is dead (Web2 has no financing)

6. Due to the strict regulation of the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission), blockchain talents and projects are being lost in North America, making Singapore a more attractive option.

No.

Fourth,It seems that GPT is the best at analyzing the market?

The above non-mainstream views are all screened by GPT. It seems that GPT is more suitable to be a market analysis expert