Rough question: Can Ethereum still catch up now?

Over the past four months, Ethereum has seen a meteoric rise, with its price soaring from $1,380 to $4,360, a staggering 216%, making it one of the world's best-performing assets. However, somewhat paradoxically, this traditionally "retail investor playground" has transformed into a frenzy for institutions. The latest data shows that institutional holdings are growing at an unprecedented rate. According to StrategyEthreserve, as of August 12, 70 institutional treasuries and Ethereum ETFs held a combined 9.49 million ETH, representing 7.85% of the circulating supply. Even more striking, on-chain data from Glassnode shows that this price surge closely aligns with the movements of "whales": when Ethereum broke through the $4,200 mark, the number of addresses holding over 10,000 ETH soared to 868,886, a nearly 13-month high. This data suggests a fundamental shift in market structure, with institutional investors becoming the primary drivers of this bull market. To some extent, this Ethereum bull run is the ultimate test for true believers—few investors are willing to hold onto their positions despite such a rapid surge. A stark example is the saddening case of Abraxas Capital, a veteran crypto investment firm that bought the dip in the $1,600-1,800 range but locked in profits around $2,300 through futures hedging. Consequently, they missed out on the subsequent uptrend, resulting in losses exceeding $140 million on their ETH hedged positions. Even more dramatically, the co-founder of BitMEX, who had repeatedly predicted Ethereum would break through $10,000, misjudged the market's decline below $3,000 at $3,500, ultimately forcing him to cover his positions at a high of $4,200. The collective misjudgment of these "market veterans" perfectly illustrates the difficulty of maintaining composure in extreme market conditions. A typical cognitive bias exists in the current market: some "fundamentalists" simply attribute Ethereum's current surge to capital speculation, arguing that the price surge is out of sync with improving network indicators. While this analytical framework may hold true in traditional markets, it completely misunderstands the pricing mechanism of crypto assets. In emerging asset classes, price is not a lagging indicator of fundamentals, but rather the most forward-looking catalyst. Solana's rise is particularly compelling: only after SOL soared from $7.8 to $130 did network effects begin to accelerate—the developer ecosystem exploded, user base grew exponentially, and ultimately gave rise to the boom of meme trading platforms like Pumpfun. This path clearly demonstrates the unique dynamics of the crypto market: price breakthroughs create narratives, narratives attract capital, and capital drives ecosystem development. In fact, the phenomenon of "price ahead of fundamentals" is very common in innovative assets. Historically, Amazon's stock price rose 194% in 2003, yet its PE ratio remained negative. Tesla's quarterly deliveries grew only 25% during its 344% surge in 2013. These examples demonstrate that disruptive technology assets often undergo an "expectations-driven" price discovery phase. For Ethereum, the current price increase is merely the first round of valuation revaluation driven by the dual positive factors of the GENIUS Act regulatory framework and the "Project Crypto" institutionalization strategy. This rally primarily reflects policy expectations, while substantive gains driven by improvements in network fundamentals (such as increased gas consumption and TVL) are still brewing. However, it is important to understand that the current price reflects market expectations for the future. When on-chain indicators show significant improvement, it often means that market expectations are fully priced in and the rally may be coming to an end. For the many investors who missed out on the opportunity, the difficult decision now is whether to buy in! While we do not recommend chasing the rally, from a trend perspective, the risk of buying now is not significant for two main reasons: 1. Once a trend is established, it often has strong inertia—it is difficult to reverse unless there is sufficient bullish momentum. As long as the upward trend does not experience a period of accelerated volume, the likelihood of a short-term peak is low. 2. Every bull market is inseparable from the participation of retail investors, who typically go through four psychological stages: wait-and-see (doubting the market's authenticity) → hesitation (fear of missing out and fear of a pullback) → position-building (anxious, incremental buying) → frenzy (all-in, chasing rising prices). Currently, Google searches for "Ethereum" are only 40% of their historical peak, holdings by small on-chain addresses are growing slowly (not yet reaching the distribution phase), and Ethereum's rise has not been widely discussed on social media. These signs indicate that retail investors have yet to enter the market en masse, and the market is likely still in its second stage. Although there is no need to be afraid of high prices in terms of trend, you should still avoid chasing the rise in operation. The time to buy should be chosen when the market is at a pin-point - after all, bull markets often fall sharply (a sharp drop in the day is a buying point), and lowering the average opening price can maximize profits.