September and October: Current Market Considerations and Opportunities

Author: Ruby Wang; Source: X, @rubywxt1

I recently relocated across the border for two months, and during that time, many sectors and projects underwent significant changes. As the saying goes, September and October are golden, so take advantage of the second half of the bull market to reassess the sectors and opportunities that are still worth focusing on, and strive for a strong harvest before the end of the year!

I. Stablecoins Are the Essential Fundamental of This Cycle

1. From the Hundred Regiments Offensive to the Eight Immortals Crossing the Sea

The market capitalization of stablecoins has increased by 50% in just three quarters, from $200 billion at the beginning of the year to $294.6 billion recently. In the first half of the year, we did a segment with @0x_Todd discussing the "hundred-group battle" of stablecoins and how retail investors can participate. This year, if you capitalize on the "stablecoin" narrative through investment, airdrops, and subsidies, the returns are quite good. After all, users benefit from this "hundred-group battle." I believe the stablecoin market has reached its second stage. The battle has essentially converged on a few leading factions. Combined with the exchanges and public chains they have allied with, it's now a stage where everyone is showing off their skills. Our recent segment with @mdzzi discussing the Hyperliquid stablecoin USDH bidding war fully demonstrates the intensity with which each company is mobilizing allies and flexing its muscles. I believe we should closely monitor new developments within these leading factions, dedicating time to research and identifying significant opportunities. As for new stablecoin projects that haven't yet held a TGE, investing small amounts of money in ambush is a welcome development, unlike the overly diverse investments seen in the first half of the year. I'll briefly summarize them here: 2. "Eight Immortals Crossing the Sea" Camp Inventory (Key Points) 1. Tether USDT and USAT Return to the US in Compliance USDT remains the leading stablecoin, accounting for nearly 60% of all stablecoins' market capitalization. Tether recently announced that it will issue a new, compliant coin, USAT, in the US, under the GENIUS Act framework, with custodians including Anchorage Digital Bank. Meanwhile, two Layer 1 (L1) projects strongly tied to Tether—Plasma and Stable—are accelerating fundraising and ecosystem development. USDT is expected to continue its dominance in global foreign exchange and exchange settlement, with USAT serving as its gateway to the US market. 2. Circle USDC and Coinbase's Strongest North American Compliance Camp. Following Circle's successful IPO, USDC has firmly established itself as the second-largest stablecoin, holding a 25% market share. The combined market capitalization of Circle and Coinbase on the US stock market is over $110 billion. The CCTP cross-chain minting protocol, developed by Circle and Coinbase, has become the official cross-chain channel. The newly launched Arc public chain is positioned as the "home of stablecoin finance" and natively integrates with Circle's entire suite of services (Payments, Wallets, CCTP, USYC, etc.). Its mainnet launch is scheduled for 2026. It is expected to continue its expansion into compliant payments, cross-border clearing and settlement, stablecoin FX, and tokenized capital markets. 3. Ethena USDe and the New Chain Converge Ethena is undoubtedly the most profitable stablecoin of this cycle. USDe has essentially secured its third place position among stablecoins, holding approximately 5% of the market share. Converge, a new chain co-developed by Ethena and Securitize, aims to enable stablecoins to serve as gas and integrate with TradFi. Its expected advantages lie in exchange margin and USD deposit-like capabilities. If Converge can successfully establish itself with compliant institutions, it will have significant growth potential. Furthermore, Ethena has announced partnerships with Binance and L2 MegaETH for its native stablecoin, USDm. This demonstrates Ethena's commitment to penetrating and increasing adoption across traditional finance and crypto-native sectors. 4. Sky USDS (formerly DAI) MakerDAO, a long-established DeFi stablecoin, completed its rebranding, launching USDS and, during this cycle, Spark as its ecosystem currency market. USDS currently has a market capitalization of approximately $4.5–5 billion, ranking fourth. Compared to USDe's offensive approach, Sky is more defensive, continuing to focus on overcollateralization, RWA integration, and DeFi infrastructure. 5. USD1: Binance + Middle Eastern MGX Capital. USD1 is issued by World Liberty Financial, a Trump-related project, and served as the settlement stablecoin for Abu Dhabi MGX's $2 billion investment in Binance. Its current market capitalization exceeds $2 billion, primarily used in BNB Chain and Binance ecosystem Launchpad/wealth management products, such as Four Meme and Buildpad, as well as lending for DeFi projects like Venus. It is expected that as Binance expands its channels and connects with Middle Eastern funding chains, USD1 will gradually gain a prominent position in exchange wealth management and ecosystem token issuance. 6. Paxos × PayPal USDG Alliance: USDG is a newly launched Solana-preferred stablecoin issued by Paxos (a Singapore-based entity). It targets enterprise applications and a novel model of "redistributing revenue to network participants." Paxos is also the white-label issuer behind Binance's BUSD and PayPal's PYUSD. The Global Dollar Network behind it includes Anchorage, Galaxy Digital, Kraken, Robinhood, Bullish, DBS, and others. USDG is designed to return reserve earnings to alliance participants. Dozens of new members have recently joined, aiming to expand into payment, custody, and clearing and settlement scenarios. This initiative is expected to strengthen its advantages in payment merchants, card network integration, and cross-border corporate settlement. 7. Stripe and Paradigm's Tempo Public Chain: Tempo is a payments-first public chain incubated by Stripe and invested in by Paradigm. It focuses on addressing the shortcomings of existing chains in throughput, stability, and merchant friendliness. Paradigm has released design documents. It is expected that, with Stripe's payment channels, if Tempo is successfully integrated, it will become a high-speed settlement layer for payment coins like USDC and USDG, bringing the on-chain card payment experience closer to Web2. 8. Hyperliquid's native stablecoin, USDH. Hyperliquid, a leading Perp DEX, recently voted with Native Markets to issue USDH. Native Markets' founding team includes Max, an early OG in the Hype ecosystem, and former Uniswap executives. USDH is positioned to use reserve income to fund HYPE buybacks, reducing reliance on external stablecoins. Testing is about to begin. USDH is expected to play a core role in margin, market making, and ecosystem subsidies, creating an endogenous flywheel. 3. Where Opportunities Lie: Stablecoins can currently be broadly categorized into two types: payment-focused and wealth management-focused. Aside from USDT and USDC's penetration in the payment sector, other emerging stablecoins are primarily focused on breakthroughs in financial management and yield, attracting crypto users with more competitive returns. Of course, the top two also offer financial subsidies and fee waivers through partnerships with exchanges and public chains. In short, opportunities fall into three categories: 1) Subsidies 2) Yield-generating stablecoins 3) Airdrop opportunities from new stablecoin protocols/public chains. These opportunities can sometimes be combined. 1) Subsidies Exchange Subsidies In the first half of the year, Coinbase offered USDC subsidies at a 12% annualized rate for several months, and Binance also offered USDC for a month in August. Other options include the previous on-chain wealth management program Plasma (the quota was fiercely snatched up) and the recent 12% annualized monthly subsidy for USDe. The only caveat is the depegging risk of the stablecoin issuer and the exchange rate. Exchange-related wallet subsidies, such as Binance web3 Wallet and OKX Wallet, can be found in the "Discover" section of your wallet. These are typically subsidies offered by projects in partnership with BN. For example, Mitosis recently offered subsidies, and the recent USDG and USDC subsidies for $Huma offer advantages. These are more secure than typical new DeFi projects, and the barrier to entry is lower. Generally, you can determine whether a project is worth participating by looking at 1) the annualized stability over a few days and 2) the total subsidy amount. Please note that you must use a Binance keyless wallet and register on the event page before participating, otherwise you may not receive the corresponding rewards.

• Public chain/DeFi subsidies

Activities carried out by stablecoin issuers and public chain/DeFi protocols

For example, USDe has been available on Telegram wallet Ton Wallet for over two months and is still ongoing, with an APY of 16%-20% and a limit of only 25,000 (multiple accounts can be added)

You can pay more attention to the overall track data on this website, which is very exaggerated, and it can be said that there is a change every day (the following is a screenshot on September 25th)

As a very atypical trader, I used to save money and make plans.

At the end of April, I wrote a tweet recommending attention to the contract exchanges. In fact, I mainly invested in three projects: Aster, Ethereal and StandX. But five months later, the impact and fundamentals of the sector have shifted dramatically. Now, the focus is likely on various teams and scientists scalping their trading to earn points/tokens and show off their prowess. As a novice trader, I'm still investing in these few platforms in this market dominated by machine-to-machine scalping. It's likely too late to compete. StandX, like Aster, is a Binance-affiliated perp dex. It's a startup from the former Binance Futures team and has been offering pre-deposits for the stablecoin DUSD for about half a year. Pre-deposits end at the end of October, and the TGE is estimated to be several months away. There's still time to deposit now and earn points by becoming an LP. (If you hold an Aster wallet, remember to visit the StandX discord in the next few days to claim a special character; you might get a surprise.) Lighter, an a16z-backed project, uses a zk-rollup perpetual contract trading protocol and requires whitelisting. I still have a few invitation codes; those in need can contact me. EdgeX, incubated by Amber Group, is reportedly backed by the MEXC exchange. Vaults now also support deposits, allowing you to earn points by depositing and trading.

• Ethereal (you can also deposit money)

Ethena's perp dex Ethereal pre-deposit, started at the beginning of this year, and has been deposited for quite a while. Looking forward to Ethena's wave, so hurry up!

• Backpack

A compliant centralized exchange supported by the Solana ecosystem, with a contract section. The points trading activity has been going on for two seasons. It is recommended to experience its smooth and compliant deposit and withdrawal functions and trade on demand.

The following projects, when you have spare time, study opportunities (there are really too many exchanges, and there are not enough users)

• BasedOne (Hyperliquid ecosystem perp supported by Ethena)

• Boros (Pendle's new project, funding rate derivatives trading)

• …………There are too many, and it is expected that there will be more next year. I will write here first

Third, various Launchpads: Small capital to try one, low principal risk

Another feature of this round is that each company has an open-book application Launchpad. IPOs for project tokens at level 1.5 don't require a lot of time or capital, and can yield several times the return in a short period of time. Furthermore, the opening of each Launchpad benefits us, the general public. Especially for projects leading the launchpads of major brands, don't miss out.

Different platforms have different rules for allocating quotas. You can also think about your own leverage and what are the advantages of your participation.

For example, those with high Yap scores are suitable for participating in Kaito boutique accounts, which is different from the quota strategy of buidlpad, which requires more KYC to get more accounts.

The following are ranked in no particular order.

• Buidlpad

• Virtuals

• Kaito

The first three are platforms that performed relatively well in this round. There are also some platforms that have made moves recently, so you need to keep an eye on them.

• Kraken (and Legion collaboration) Byreal (Bybit’s venture) Four Meme (Binance-affiliated) Echo (Cobie’s startup) Based (Ethena’s investment in a HyperEVM project)… I’m sure there will be many more. In the later stages, we need to consider whether the valuations of the above projects are reasonable to avoid reverse losses. Summary The above is a summary of some of my recent thoughts, and I hope to communicate with more friends. Please feel free to recommend more projects or correct my views in the comments section. I will continue to practice stablecoin management and pay attention to new projects and applications in these sectors. I will strive to update my observations monthly.