Standard Chartered Bank reiterates: Bitcoin's target price is $200,000 by 2025

Source: Blockchain Knights

Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of crypto asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, believes that although BTC has strengthened its position as a hedge in recent weeks, its price still does not reflect the growing signs of systemic risk.

In an April 22 client report, Kendrick warned that political pressure on the Federal Reserve is exacerbating tensions in the bond market, which may soon spread to the crypto asset market.

He pointed out that the term premium of the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rose to its highest level in 12 years, and he said that this trend reflects the market's growing concerns about inflation, debt issuance, and especially the possible replacement of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Kendrick said: "The current threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve through the possible replacement of Powell falls squarely into the category of government-related risks. BTC should soon reflect this shift."

Kendrick categorizes BTC as a hedge against two different types of systemic threats: one is a private sector collapse, such as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023; the other is a public sector credibility shock, such as central bank intervention or sovereign debt concerns.

Kendrick emphasized that while BTC generally behaves as a risky asset under normal conditions, its true function emerges during macro stress events. He added that the latest surge in term premiums is an indicator of long-term inflation and interest rate risks, representing the kind of environment in which BTC has historically re-established its hedging narrative. Kendrick also pointed out a recent divergence: While term premiums have risen sharply in the past few weeks, BTC prices have stagnated below $100,000. He attributed the lag to investors’ temporary focus on trade-related concerns, including tariffs in the tech sector, which have weakened BTC’s response. “BTC lags behind term premiums as investors’ attention is temporarily focused on the underperformance of tech stocks. But when the focus returns to the credibility of central banks, BTC will resume its hedging function,” he wrote. Despite the short-term volatility, Kendrick reiterated Standard Chartered’s long-term price forecast for BTC: $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by 2028. He attributed the expected gains to macroeconomic pressures, improved structural investment channels through spot ETFs, and an increasingly mature derivatives market.

Kendrick has previously modeled the growth of BTC's share in an optimized gold-BTC portfolio, arguing that as volatility decreases, this will support future gains in BTC prices, especially as institutional access continues to expand under the current U.S. government.

Kendrick said: "This may be what is needed to achieve BTC's next all-time high."