The Alt Season Index rose to 24, with more than $35 billion flowing into the crypto market in the past three weeks

Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Golden Finance, covering the week's key news, mining information, project dynamics, technological progress and other industry dynamics. This article is one of the news weekly, taking you to a glance at the major events in the blockchain industry this week.

Headlines

▌Altcoin Season Index rises to 24

According to Coinmarketcap data, the Altcoin Season Index is now at 24, up 2 points from yesterday (yesterday was 22). The index shows that in the past 90 days, about 24 projects in the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market value have outperformed Bitcoin, and the market is still in a season dominated by Bitcoin. It is reported that the CMC Cryptocurrency Altcoin Season Index is a real-time indicator used to determine whether the current cryptocurrency market is in a season dominated by altcoins. The index is based on the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin in the past 90 days.

▌Data: More than $35 billion flowed into the cryptocurrency market in the past three weeks

According to on-chain analyst @ali_charts, more than $35 billion flowed into the cryptocurrency market in the past three weeks.

▌JP Morgan Chase: Raises China's GDP growth forecast for 2025

JP Morgan Chase's Chief Economist for China and Head of Economic Research for Greater China Zhu Haibin expressed his latest views and adjusted his expectations for China's economic growth in 2025. Specifically, JP Morgan Chase raised its forecast for GDP growth for the whole year of 2025, and raised China's GDP growth rate (quarterly year-on-year growth rate) from the second quarter to the fourth quarter to 3%. In terms of monetary policy, Zhu Haibin maintained his forecast that the People's Bank of China would cut interest rates by 30 basis points and reserve requirement ratio by 100 basis points in 2025, and believed that the central bank's monetary policy flexibility had increased. (Shanghai Securities News) ▌Viewpoint: Bitcoin's current rise has a potential double-top structure similar to that of 2021 Coindesk analyst Oliver Knight said that this time Bitcoin's price trend is accompanied by the same on-chain indicators as in 2021, and may move out of a potential "double-top" structure. Oliver Knight explained that the first indicator to pay attention to is the weekly RSI, which showed three bearish divergences in March 2024, December 2024, and May 2025, respectively. (RSI is a technical indicator that measures the average gain versus the average loss over a period of time to gauge potential overbought or oversold conditions. A bearish divergence is when the RSI is trending down while prices are trending up.) This, combined with the fact that the volume at this breakout is lower than the initial breakout above $100,000, suggests that the momentum of this rally is waning. Volumes have fallen across both crypto and institutional trading platforms, with CME Bitcoin futures volume failing to exceed 35,000 contracts in three of the past four weeks. During the last breakout above $100,000, volume frequently exceeded 65,000 contracts and exceeded 85,000 three times. In addition, open interest has also diverged from price, with open interest now down 13% from the initial rally to $109,000 in January, while prices have only fallen 5.8%. Four years ago, when Bitcoin reached $69,000, despite a 6.6% price increase, holdings were down 15.6% from the initial $65,000 high. Oliver Knight added that these indicators do suggest that while Bitcoin prices may hit new highs like in 2021, the momentum of this trend is weakening.

▌JPMorgan Chase Completes First Public Tokenized Treasury Trading Using ONDO Public Ledger

According to Fortune, JPMorgan Chase completed the first settlement transaction of tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds through a public blockchain on May 14, marking an important step from a "walled garden" private chain to an open blockchain ecosystem. The transaction was provided by OndoFinance, a tokenized Treasury product, and was implemented through the oracle service provided by Chainlink. Previously, JPMorgan Chase's digital asset operations were mostly conducted on its private chain Onyx. This transaction shows that its strategy is shifting to a more open financial infrastructure.

Policy

▌The US Stablecoin Bill will be voted on by the Senate as early as next week, and supporters say it will "go down in history"

The Stablecoin National Innovation Guidance and Establishment Act (GENIUS Act) promoted by Senators Bill Hagerty and Kirsten Gillibrand is expected to be debated and passed in the Senate as early as next week. Hagerty said: "Next week, the Senate will go down in history when we debate and pass the GENIUS Act, which will establish the first growth-friendly payment stablecoin regulatory framework." Gillibrand said that "the formulation of this bill is a true bipartisan collaboration" and emphasized that it includes "strong consumer protection." Although it failed to pass the "motion to end debate" vote, the bill has entered the latest draft stage, and the text has been adjusted to meet the Democratic Party's concerns about consumer protection and national security. The draft clearly states that large listed companies such as Meta will not be approved to issue stablecoins. The Senate will vote again next Monday, and 60 votes are required to pass before the debate can be officially launched. The House of Representatives is also advancing its own version, and the final version will need to be integrated and signed into law by President Trump.

▌The majority leader of the U.S. Senate has submitted a motion to end the debate on the GENIUS Act, which will be voted on on May 19

The majority leader of the U.S. Senate, John Thune, has formally submitted a motion to end the debate on the GENIUS Act, which will be voted on on May 19. This stablecoin regulatory bill requires that issuers with assets exceeding $10 billion be regulated by the Federal Reserve, and small institutions be regulated at the state level; all stablecoins must be fully backed by assets such as U.S. dollars or treasury bonds. The latest bipartisan amendment proposes to add three clauses: 1) stricter rules for technology companies to get involved in financial assets; 2) strengthen consumer protection mechanisms; 3) strengthen supervision of government officials (including Musk and others). The House of Representatives has previously passed a similar "STABLE Act" requiring stablecoin issuers such as USDT to operate in full transparency. If the bill is passed, it will become the first federal legislative framework for stablecoins in the United States. Senate sources revealed that the amendments include explicit prohibitions on the abuse of FDIC insurance and strengthening bankruptcy protection clauses to win bipartisan support. The results of this vote will directly affect the direction of US regulation in the field of digital assets.

▌The US SEC is investigating whether Coinbase has falsely reported the number of users

According to the New York Times, shortly after US President Trump took office, Coinbase (COIN.O), the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the United States, received good news: the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) withdrew the lawsuit accusing it of illegally promoting digital currencies to the public. But this is far from the end of the company's legal disputes. According to four people familiar with the matter, the SEC is investigating whether Coinbase has falsely reported the number of users in past disclosure documents-an investigation that began in the Biden administration and is still continuing during Trump's tenure. The previously undisclosed investigation focused on Coinbase's claim in securities filings and promotional materials that it had more than 100 million "certified users." The data appeared in its 2021 listing documents, but the company stopped citing it two years later. Two people familiar with the matter said Coinbase has continued to communicate with the SEC this year and hired Davis Polk to assist in responding.

▌The Brazilian Central Bank proposes strict regulation of stablecoin transfers

On May 15, several Brazilian government sources familiar with the plan revealed that Brazilian government officials are considering issuing the country's first sovereign bond denominated in RMB. At present, this move is still under consideration and no final decision has been made. The potential plan to issue RMB-denominated sovereign bonds will be a significant development in Brazil's financial strategy. At the same time, as part of the new cryptocurrency regulatory framework, the Brazilian Central Bank has proposed strict regulation of stablecoin transfers. The proposed rules include restrictions on sending stablecoins to wallets controlled by non-Brazilian entities, reflecting the country's tightening stance on cryptocurrency trading within the country.

▌New York Mayor Eric Adams announces cryptocurrency partnership plan, saying New York is "open to crypto businesses"

Golden Finance reported that New York City Mayor Eric Adams announced at a press conference on May 12 that New York City will establish partnerships with financial companies as part of its crypto plan. He said that Figure founder June Ou and Richie Hecker, CEO of private equity firm Traction and Scale, will assist the city government in promoting "economic development opportunities that use digital assets to serve the public." Adams stressed: "We are focused on the long-term value of these technologies to the city and its residents, not chasing meme coins or trends." He reiterated: "If you are in crypto, blockchain, Web3 or fintech, New York City is open to you."

Blockchain Applications

▌Sonic Launches Native USDC and CCTP V2 to Improve Cross-Chain Performance and Institutional Support

Sonic announced that native USDC and CCTP V2 are now online, completing the upgrade from Bridged USDC Standard to the native version. The upgrade "improves network security, improves liquidity, enables seamless cross-chain USDC transfers, opens centralized exchange support, and provides institutional-level deposit/withdrawal channels." In addition, "Bridged USDC has been upgraded to native USDC in situ, and the contract address has not changed," and users and developers "do not need to do anything." Binance has integrated USDC on Sonic, and other CEXs will follow in the near future. CCTP V2 supports “nearly real-time USDC cross-chain transfers”.

▌VanEck and Securitize partner to launch U.S. Treasury tokenized fund

VanEck and Securitize partner to launch a U.S. Treasury tokenized fund, providing investors with on-chain access to U.S. Treasury bonds. The fund leverages Securitize’s integrated services and will initially be available on four blockchains: Avalanche, BNB Chain, Ethereum, and Solana, with cross-chain interoperability through Wormhole.

▌Uniswap launches “one-click coin swap” feature

Uniswap announced on social platforms that it has launched the “one-click coin swap” feature, which is now available on the Uniswap Web App and supports EIP-5792’s smart wallet.

▌Ethereum Fusaka upgrade plans to introduce PeerDAS to reduce L2 and validator costs

Following the successful deployment of the Pectra upgrade, Ethereum core developers have turned their attention to the next major upgrade "Fusaka", which is scheduled to go online at the end of 2025. It has been determined that proposals involving PeerDAS will be included to reduce the operating costs of Layer 2 expansion solutions and validators. PeerDAS (Peer-to-Peer Data Availability Sampling) is a data availability sampling mechanism that allows nodes to verify their availability without downloading the full data, thereby improving network efficiency and reducing resource consumption. This mechanism is expected to further optimize Ethereum's expansion capabilities and enhance the scalability and decentralization of the network. It is reported that the specific content of the Fusaka upgrade is still under discussion, but developers have reached a consensus on the introduction of PeerDAS.

▌Blockchain cloud computing company Nirvana Labs completes $6 million seed extension round of financing, led by Jump Crypto and others

On May 13, blockchain cloud computing company Nirvana Labs completed a $6 million seed extension round of financing, led by Jump Crypto and Crucible Capital, with participation from RW3 Ventures, Castle Island and Hash3 VC, bringing its total financing to $11.8 million. The company provides computing services tailored for the encryption field. Unlike traditional cloud service providers that concentrate computing resources, Nirvana uses bare metal infrastructure, with each server serving only one client. Nirvana has served infrastructure providers such as BitGo and Fireblocks and protocol foundations such as Avalanche and Berachain. Nirvana also plans to serve as a front-end service to help organizations deploy on Internet filtering startup DoubleZero.

Cryptocurrency

▌Tim Draper: I keep buying more Bitcoin

In an interview, Tim Draper, an early investor in Tesla and Skype, said, "I keep buying more Bitcoin." In July 2014, Tim Draper purchased about 29,656 Bitcoins at an auction held by the U.S. Marshals Service for about $19 million, with an average purchase price of about $640. These Bitcoins were seized by the U.S. government in the Silk Road law enforcement operation. Tim Draper has repeatedly expressed his optimism about the future potential of Bitcoin, believing that Bitcoin can provide liquidity and protection against currency depreciation for emerging markets.

▌Analyst: Technical factors drive ETH up recently, but enthusiasm for capital allocation is still limited

David Duong, head of research at Coinbase Institutional, posted on social media, "What I wrote on Thursday night is still applicable now: Last week, ETH's rise was mainly driven by technical factors, with a large number of mismatched positions, short covering and subsequent re-positioning behind it. This round of rise is actually ETH's catch-up rise, catching up with peers such as BTC and SOL. However, we believe that such price trends do not mean that the market has a strong willingness to allocate ETH at a broader level, and demand is still limited."

▌Pantera CEO: Bitcoin still has the potential for excess returns in the next few decades

At the Consensus 2025 conference held in Toronto, Dan, founder and CEO of Pantera Capital Morehead said: "Bitcoin still has decades of excess returns." He emphasized that Pantera continues to have confidence in the asset class. Morehead advises investors to "invest in a wide range of tokens and venture equity" to seize rapidly evolving market opportunities. He rarely disclosed that Pantera has achieved 86% profitability in its portfolio and has invested in 22 unicorn companies with a valuation of more than $1 billion. He also criticized the United States for its sluggishness in crypto regulation, saying that "90% of crypto transactions and protocols are outside the United States - this is wrong." But he also said optimistically: "The election victory is a huge unlocking" and hopes that capital and innovation will flow back to the United States in the next few years.

▌Binance Wallet will launch Privasea AI TGE

According to the Binance Wallet announcement, the 16th exclusive TGE will be held on May 14, 2025 from 18:00 to 20:00 (Beijing time), the project is Privasea (PRAI), and it will be conducted through PancakeSwap. From this time on, users need to use Alpha points to participate, and an additional 40 million PRAI will be used for subsequent activities. More details will be announced on the event page.

▌Japanese listed company Metaplanet's Bitcoin holdings have surpassed El Salvador

On May 12, Simon Gerovich, CEO of Japanese listed company Metaplanet, posted on social media that after increasing its holdings by 1,241 bitcoins today, Metaplanet's total Bitcoin holdings have increased to 6,796, a figure that surpasses El Salvador's holdings (holding 6,714 bitcoins). It is reported that Metaplanet's CEO was the head of Goldman Sachs' equity derivatives department. Since 2013, he has run Metaplanet (formerly Red Planet Japan Inc.) as a hotel developer. However, the epidemic has led to an economic slowdown, and the company has been forced to close most of its hotels, leaving only one in operation. When the market value once fell to about US$15 million, UTXO Management invested in shares and led the company to adopt a Bitcoin strategy. Since then, Metaplanet has grown its shareholder base to nearly 50,000, and its market value has soared to $2 billion, making it the best performing stock in the world among companies with a market value of more than $250 million in 2024. It recently announced the largest public equity financing in Asia's history, planning to raise $750 million to purchase Bitcoin.

Important Economic Dynamics

▌Trump: The consensus is that the Fed should cut interest rates as soon as possible

US President Trump said that almost everyone agrees that "the Fed should cut interest rates as soon as possible, sooner rather than later." Powell, who is known for his "slow action," may mess things up again.

▌China reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds by US$18.9 billion in March, and its holdings fell to the third place

On May 16, local time, data released by the US Treasury Department showed that in March 2025, among the top three overseas creditors of US Treasury bonds, Japan and the United Kingdom increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, while China reduced its holdings. China changed from the second largest creditor of the United States to the third largest creditor, and the United Kingdom became the second largest creditor. March was just before the current round of turmoil in the US Treasury market. The US Treasury Department's March 2025 International Capital Flows Report (TIC) showed that Japan increased its holdings of US$4.9 billion in US Treasury bonds in March, with a holding size of US$1,130.8 billion, and it is still the largest creditor of the United States. China reduced its holdings of US$18.9 billion in US Treasury bonds to US$765.4 billion in March, the first reduction this year. After the reduction, China's holdings of US Treasury bonds fell from second to third. Since April 2022, China's U.S. debt holdings have been below $1 trillion, and the overall trend is to reduce holdings. In January 2025, China increased its holdings of U.S. Treasuries by $1.8 billion, and in February it increased its holdings by $23.5 billion. In 2022, 2023, and 2024, China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasuries by $173.2 billion, $50.8 billion, and $57.3 billion, respectively. (Jinshi) Fidelity Bond Manager: Tariffs Put the Fed in a Dilemma The head of Fidelity's $2.3 trillion fixed income business said that as Trump's trade war upends the economic outlook, the Fed's policymakers' goal of curbing inflation while maximizing employment is "pulling them in completely different directions," the Financial Times reported. Robin Foley said the Fed's "efforts to fight inflation are good, but employment remains to be seen." She added that the central bank is in a "dilemma." Foley's comments come as the Fed paused this year its rate-cutting cycle that began in 2024 as Trump's tariffs threaten to stoke inflation and hit the job market. Foley noted that market participants' expectations for interest rates have shifted "very volatile" over the past year. Trading in the futures market suggests that investors expect the Fed to resume rate cuts in September, much later than forecast at the beginning of the year. (Jin Shi)

▌Fed Barr: Supply chain disruptions may lead to higher inflation

Fed Barr said the U.S. economy is on solid footing, but he warned that tariff-related supply chain disruptions could lead to slower economic growth and higher inflation. Barr stressed the importance of small businesses and their role in the supply chain and the overall economy. He said trade policy has clouded the outlook and added uncertainty. Potential supply chain disruptions are "particularly severe" for small businesses, in part because they have less access to credit. He added that small businesses often provide specialized inputs that are not easily available elsewhere, and business closures could further disrupt supply chains.

▌Fed Chairman Powell: Zero interest rate lower bound remains a risk

Fed Chairman Powell: The zero interest rate lower bound remains a risk and should be addressed in the framework, but given the current policy interest rate level, the zero lower bound is no longer a base case.