Author: Liu Jiaolian
The overnight BTC rebound failed, and the bulls failed to hold 95k. In the morning, it was still waiting at 94k. The 30-day line has been bent and the upward trend has been interrupted.
Yesterday, the central bank announced that it decided to temporarily suspend the purchase of treasury bonds in the open market.
The yield of one-year medium-term bonds has already bottomed out and rebounded as early as Christmas Eve in December 2024.
Now, the yield of 10-year medium-term bonds has also shown a bottoming trend.
Jiao Lian said that bond yields are inversely proportional to their prices.
The bottoming of yields, or the rebound from the bottom, indicates that bond prices are falling.
Why it fell is easy to understand. Without a big buyer, according to the market supply and demand relationship, the price will naturally fall back to a new equilibrium price.
Not long ago, in the article The Strange Correlation between China's Long-term Bond Yield and BTC published on August 31, 2024, the 10-year medium-term bond and the BTC bull market resonated in the past three BTC bull market cycles.
When did BTC make a decisive right-side breakthrough? Probably in October 2024. Let’s look back at the speculation in the article Big Breakthrough: Another Conjecture of BTC’s Anti-Power Law Growth published by Jiaolian on October 17, 2024: “This fundamental weekly K-line opened on October 14 has a good chance of becoming a decisive upward breakthrough of the downward channel built since the beginning of this year. Zoom out a little and expand your vision, and you will see it more clearly. … At present, we may be on the eve of the launch of this round of fast bull cycle. It’s just a matter of time.”
Looking back now, it is very clear. It was indeed a decisive right-side breakthrough at that time. The two blue straight lines that squeeze the channel in the figure are still the two that Jiaolian drew at the beginning, and they have not changed. Using this as a reference, we can also clearly see the shape of the right-side breakthrough.
From the last bottoming out before BTC broke through on the right side, roughly in September 2024, to the one-year medium-term bond yield bottoming out in December, there was a difference of about 3 months.
Financial issues always bring us a lot of myths. Or, at least, they bring a lot of strange things to the teaching chain.
Are mainstream financial propositions really so natural? The teaching chain believes that it is not necessarily so.
For example, the decline in treasury bond yields indicates that the economy is in the risk of deflation. But the decline in yields is clearly the market's pursuit of treasury bonds. Doesn't this show that the market recognizes the country's credit?
Why do we say that? It is because of a common idea that capital will only chase after government bonds when there are no better investment opportunities in the market.
But isn't the economic development of the entire country created by the market players?
So if the government bond yield goes up, it is a reflection of economic activity.
This dualistic concept really puts the state and the market in opposition to each other. This opposing dualism is not suitable for the Chinese economy, because China is a model of national complementarity with the state-owned economy as the main body and the private economy as the supplement.
Therefore, what the Chinese bond yield indicates may only represent the activity of some economic players.
When will the correlation between the rebound of the Chinese bond yield and the BTC bull market disappear? Perhaps when the state begins to participate in it, the correlation pattern will change.
At least before then, if the correlation pattern is expected to continue, then holding BTC should not be bearish on China's economic recovery in 2025. Because it is very likely that without the latter, there will be no BTC bull market in 2025.
OpenAI is developing its own social media platform that integrates ChatGPT’s image generation with a social feed, aiming to compete with X and Meta. The project is still in early stages, with prototypes already being tested internally.
JoyHarvard rejected Trump administration demands to regulate campus speech, citing First Amendment violations. In response, the administration froze $2.3 billion in federal funding. Barack Obama praised Harvard for defending academic freedom and resisting political pressure.
KikyoChina has seized large amounts of crypto from criminal cases and is using private firms to quietly sell them, despite its trading ban. Officials are now debating if the country should create formal rules—or even build a national reserve—to manage these assets.
AnaisAB DAO officially announced the launch of a dual reward campaign in collaboration with Bitget (bitget.com), the world’s second-largest digital asset trading platform. In celebration of AB’s Token Generation Event (TGE), the campaign will distribute a total of 213,307,000 $AB, valued at approximately $2.6 million USD
AlexCBEX, a fraudulent digital trading platform, scammed thousands of Nigerian investors by promising unrealistically high returns and freezing accounts after taking their money. The platform, which was never registered, collapsed in April 2025, leaving victims with significant financial losses.
WeatherlyOKX has expanded into the US with a new headquarters in San Jose and the appointment of Roshan Robert as CEO for US operations. This follows a $504 million settlement with US authorities over past regulatory violations, as the company focuses on compliance and growth.
WeatherlyKelly Yu, a Chinese-Canadian singer, has partnered with CreateAI to produce the world’s first AI-generated music video for her song "Werewolf," blending human creativity with AI technology. The project significantly reduced production time and costs, setting a new standard for future music video productions.
AnaisSouth Korean presidential candidate Hong Joon-pyo vows to ease crypto regulations, aiming to replicate the US’s market-friendly approach that’s boosted jobs and bank charters. His proposals, aligned with ongoing AML and foreign investment talks, position digital assets as a growth driver. Could Trump-style crypto deregulation be emerging as a broader political strategy in Asia?
CatherineUS and Canadian authorities teamed up in "Operation Avalanche" to dismantle a $4.3M Ethereum phishing scam, recover stolen funds, and alert affected wallet holders. Could this mark a new chapter in global crypto crime enforcement?
KikyoSouth Korean police arrested eight people for creating and sharing deepfake videos targeting HYBE artists, including BTS and LE SSERAFIM. The crackdown followed months of collaboration between HYBE, fans, and law enforcement to combat AI-generated content.
Anais