Tom Lee sets the tone for Ethereum: $12,000 by the end of the year

Tom Lee's recent Ethereum price predictions mainly focus on reaching the $10,000 to $12,000 range by the end of 2025, while the $15,000 target falls into the more optimistic "price discovery range." At the Korea Blockchain Week Impact Conference on September 24, 2025, Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine and co-founder of Fundstrat, clearly stated that the target price of Ethereum by the end of the year is US$10,000 to 12,000, and believes that it may enter a 10 to 15 year super cycle. The core rationale for this prediction includes: Massive inflows of institutional funds. Ethereum spot ETFs recently saw a net inflow of $1.019 billion in a single day, bringing their total net asset value to over $25.7 billion and holdings representing 4.96% of the circulating supply. BitMine, the world's largest publicly listed ETH treasury, increases its holdings by 8,000 to 10,000 ETH daily, aiming to hold 5% of the global total supply. Compliance Advantages and Financial Infrastructure Status: Ethereum, hailed by Tom Lee as the "most compliant blockchain," meets the requirements of Wall Street and governments for financial infrastructure. With the rise of asset tokenization (such as JPMorgan's stablecoin and Robinhood's token project), the financialization of ETH will significantly increase. Technological Upgrades and Ecosystem Maturity: The TVL of Layer 2 (such as Arbitrum and Optimism) reached $132 billion in September 2025, a 22% increase from June. The Fusaka upgrade, launched in December, is expected to double Ethereum's transaction throughput to 12,000 transactions per second by expanding Blob capacity and introducing PeerDAS technology. DeFi's total locked-in value (TVL) has returned to $180 billion, with staking yields stabilizing at 4%-6%, attracting over 36 million ETH to stake.

II. The background and logic of the $15,000 target

Although Tom Lee's core forecast is $10,000 to $12,000, he mentioned on some occasions that Ethereum may enter the price discovery range of $12,000 to $15,000. The supporting factors for this view include:

1. Market sentiment and technical resonance

   As of September 25, 2025, the price of Ethereum is approximately $4,153, up about 147% from the beginning of the year, and it has recently broken through $4,800. The US dollar is approaching its all-time high of $4,953. Technical indicators suggest its price is in a healthy upward trend; a break above the psychologically important $5,000 level could trigger further buying momentum. Macro liquidity is easing. The Federal Reserve resumed interest rate cuts in September 2025, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0%-4.25%, and hinted at two more rate cuts this year. Historical data shows that interest rate cut cycles typically drive valuation expansion in risky assets like cryptocurrencies. For example, following the March 2020 rate cut, Bitcoin's price rose by over 300% within a year. Reinforcement of the Long-Term Narrative Tom Lee believes that Ethereum's "super cycle" will be driven by factors such as the integration of AI and blockchain and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) (such as BlackRock and Fidelity putting $60 billion in assets on-chain). If these trends accelerate, ETH may break through traditional valuation models and enter a higher price range.

III. Risks and Uncertainties

1. Potential Changes in Regulatory Policy

   Although the US FDIC allows banks to participate in crypto businesses, the SEC's lawsuit against centralized exchanges (such as Coinbase and Binance) is still ongoing, which may affect market confidence. The implementation of the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) may also impose new restrictions on businesses such as stablecoins.

2. Technology Upgrade Execution Risk

   While the Fusaka upgrade is seen as a key catalyst, uncertainty remains as to whether its phased capacity expansion (December 2025 and January 2026) can be completed on time and whether it will cause network security issues. Furthermore, the market share of competitors such as Solana is increasing. Its share of NFT trading volume has increased from 8% in 2024 to 15% in Q3 2025, potentially diverting some funds. Macroeconomic Fluctuations: Although the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, its dot plot suggests the policy rate is likely to remain at 3.25%-3.50% in 2026, higher than the market expectation of 2.9%. A rebound in inflation or stronger-than-expected economic data could lead to a slower pace of rate cuts, dampening the performance of risky assets.

IV. Other Views from Institutions and the Market

1. Standard Chartered Bank

   estimates that the price of ETH will be US$7,500 by the end of 2025 and US$25,000 in 2028, with institutional adoption and technological upgrades as the core drivers.

2. Wall Street analyst Sean Farrell

   has a year-end target price of US$10,000, and in an optimistic scenario, it could reach US$12,000 to US$15,000, mainly based on ETF fund inflows and the expansion of the Layer 2 ecosystem.

3. Market Sentiment Indicators

   On-chain data shows that the number of active addresses increased by 30% in September 2025, and the holdings of whales (addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH) hit a two-year high, indicating that long-term investor confidence has increased.

V. Conclusion

Tom Lee's latest forecast shows that there is a high probability that Ethereum will reach US$10,000 to US$12,000 by the end of 2025, while the target of US$15,000 will require the support of more unexpected factors (such as faster institutional capital inflows and breakthrough technological upgrades). Investors should pay attention to the following key milestones:

• December 2025

  Fusaka upgrade launch and the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting.

• Early 2026

  Verification of Layer 2 scaling effectiveness and policy developments before the US election.

Overall, while Ethereum's long-term prospects are generally positive, its short-term price may still be significantly affected by factors such as market sentiment and regulatory policies. Investors should remain rational and avoid excessive leverage.