Trump proposes tariff rebates: Every American will receive a $2,000 bonus.

Long Yue, Wall Street Insights

Amid the US Supreme Court's ruling on the legality of tariffs, Trump defended his trade policies and proposed the idea of ​​directly returning funds to Americans.

On Sunday, November 9th, Trump posted on social media, claiming that his tariff policy would bring "at least $2,000 in dividends to everyone," except for high-income earners. He described tariffs as a key tool for a strong US economy, record-high stock markets, and future repayment of the massive national debt, and called those who opposed tariffs "fools."

However, Treasury Secretary Bessant, in a media interview, offered a more cautious interpretation of this proposal. Bessant stated that he had not yet had specific discussions with the president on this matter and hinted that this $2,000 "dividend" could appear in "multiple forms and in multiple ways."

This statement quickly cooled market expectations, shifting focus from direct cash stimulus to the government's broader tax agenda. This remark comes at a time when the Trump administration's tariff powers are facing a severe legal test. The U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments on the legality of tariffs on November 5th, and an unfavorable ruling could not only force the government to refund over $100 billion in tariffs already collected but also shake the foundations of its economic strategy. This makes any fiscal commitments related to tariffs highly uncertain. The "$2,000 bonus" may be reflected in tax cuts. According to reports, Bessant explicitly linked this "bonus" to the government's tax cut agenda. He explained that this funding could be reflected through a series of tax cuts on the president's agenda, such as eliminating taxes on tips and overtime pay, and implementing tax breaks for auto loans. This suggests that the so-called "dividends" are more likely an estimate of the economic benefits of a policy mix rather than a one-off direct payment. Trump and his Treasury Secretary also showed different emphases on the core objectives of tariffs. Trump emphasized in a post that the U.S. is "receiving trillions of dollars" from tariffs and will soon begin paying off its "massive debt" of $37 trillion. However, Bessant pointed out in an interview that the "real goal" of tariffs is to "rebalance trade," ultimately achieving trade fairness by encouraging manufacturing to return to the U.S. He acknowledged that tariff revenue would actually decrease as manufacturing returns, but the increased domestic economic activity would provide a more solid tax base. Tariff policy faces a crucial Supreme Court ruling. The Trump administration's entire tariff framework is hanging in the balance of power with a Supreme Court ruling. According to CCTV News, on Wednesday, November 5th local time, the U.S. Supreme Court debated the legality of President Trump's massive tariffs. During the hours-long, heated debate, Chief Justice John Roberts and Trump appointees Amy Barrett and Neil Gorsuch sharply questioned the Trump administration's position. These three conservative justices questioned the legality of the Trump administration's use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs monthly, signaling that the final ruling could shake Trump's signature economic policies. Media reports summarized that the majority of the Supreme Court justices appeared skeptical of Trump's emergency tariff policy, with several conservative justices refuting many of the government's main arguments in defense of the import tariffs. The overall pace indicated that at least a majority of justices had reservations about the government's decision to impose unlimited global tariffs by declaring a national emergency.