Two former FTX executives received reduced sentences; Musk: The Federal Reserve is seriously overstaffed

Golden Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Golden Finance, covering key news of the week, mining information, project dynamics, technological progress and other industry dynamics. This article is the news weekly, taking you to a glance at the major events of the blockchain industry this week.

Headlines

▌Two former cryptocurrency exchange FTX executives get reduced sentences

According to the Washington Post, the sentences of two former cryptocurrency exchange FTX executives appear to have been shortened. According to the website of the U.S. Federal Bureau of Prisons, Ryan Salame began serving a sentence of 7 and a half years in October and is now expected to be released in March 2031. Caroline Ellison's current expected release date is July 2026, a few months less than her original two-year sentence. FTX filed for bankruptcy in 2022 after questions about its finances and its relationship with sister trading firm Alameda Research led to customers withdrawing funds at a rapid pace, similar to a bank run. Authorities later accused FTX of misappropriating customer funds for personal use, to repay loans owed by Alameda Research and for other projects. The scandal marked a stunning fall for FTX, once the world's third-largest cryptocurrency exchange, and its founder Bankman (SBF). Salam, the former co-CEO of FTX's Bahamas subsidiary, pleaded guilty to operating an unlicensed money transmission business in violation of campaign finance laws. Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda, pleaded guilty in December 2022 to wire, securities and commodities fraud, and money laundering.

▌Musk: The Fed is seriously overstaffed

Musk wrote on the social media platform X that the Fed, which is responsible for protecting the world's largest economy, is "seriously overstaffed." These remarks were sparked by a series of discussions about a post about the Fed's latest policy decision.

▌US media: Some large banks in the United States plan to sue the Federal Reserve over annual stress tests

According to CNBC, a person familiar with the matter revealed that several large banks are planning to sue the Federal Reserve over the annual bank stress test. The person said that the lawsuit is expected to be filed this week, possibly as early as Tuesday morning local time. The Fed's stress test is an annual routine that requires banks to reserve sufficient buffer funds for bad loans and stipulates the scale of stock buybacks and dividends. After the close of trading on Monday this week, the Federal Reserve announced in a statement that it plans to adjust bank stress tests, but it did not detail the specific adjustments to the annual stress test framework. But these adjustments may not be enough to allay banks' concerns about heavy capital requirements. Because the Fed said: "These proposed adjustments are not intended to have a substantial impact on overall capital requirements." Greg Bell, CEO of the Bank Policy Institute (BPI), which represents large banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs, welcomed the Fed's statement. He said in a statement: "The Fed's statement today is the first step towards transparency and accountability." However, Bell also hinted that further action may be taken: "We are carefully studying this statement and considering other measures to ensure timely reforms that are both legal and policy-compliant."

▌Data: Only 7 of the 25 listed mining companies achieved positive returns by the end of 2024

As of December 24, Bitcoin rose 113% in 2024. According to Hash Rate Index and Google Finance, most listed mining companies are in a downward trend by the end of 2024, with a drop of up to 84%. Of the 25 listed mining companies in the index, only 7 have achieved positive returns. At press time, Bitdeer (BTDR) is up 167%, Cipher (CIFR) is up 33%, Hut 8 (HUT) is up 91%, Iris Energy (IREN) is up 72%, Northern Data (NB2) is up 58%, Core Scientific (CORZQ) is up 327%, and TeraWulf (WULF) is up 169%. On the other hand, Argo Blockchain (ARB) is down 84%, followed by Sphere 3D (ANY) at 69%, (to name a few). Bitcoin miners have accumulated revenues of more than $71 billion. According to Blockchain.com, miners earned $42 million on December 22, compared to a peak of more than $100 million in April.

▌Analyst: Cryptocurrency VC investment may exceed $18 billion in 2025

According to PitchBook analyst Robert Le, VC investment in the crypto industry may exceed $18 billion in 2025, with multiple quarters of investment reaching $5 billion. Total crypto venture capital investment in 2023 is about $9 billion, and is expected to reach $11 billion in 2024, with an average quarterly investment of about $2 billion to $2.5 billion. Although investment activity slowed down this summer, it rebounded after the election, and general venture capital firms are expected to refocus on the crypto field next year. Le also pointed out that the investment theme of "crypto and artificial intelligence (AI)" will continue to heat up, and crypto technology may provide innovative solutions to certain core problems during the expansion of AI, or become a new growth point.

Policy

▌The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued the Reporting Management Measures for High-risk Transactions such as Illegal Cross-border Financial Activities of Virtual Currency

On December 27, according to the announcement of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the "Management Measures for Bank Foreign Exchange Risk Transaction Reports (Trial)" has been issued and will be implemented from now on. The "Measures" is a supporting document for the "Management Measures for Bank Foreign Exchange Business (Trial)", which aims to strengthen the foreign exchange risk management of banks and conduct early identification, early warning and early disposal of high-risk transactions such as suspected false trade, underground banks, and illegal cross-border financial activities of virtual currencies. The main contents include: clarifying the reporting responsibilities of banks for foreign exchange risk transactions, requiring the establishment of a monitoring system and submitting reports; stipulating the scope of information reporting, including activities suspected of illegal and irregular cross-border capital flows; clarifying the content of the report, such as basic information and measures to be taken; strengthening internal management measures, including internal control systems and data confidentiality management.

▌Russian Finance Minister: Digital Currency for International Payments Represents Future Trend

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Wednesday that Russian companies have begun using Bitcoin and other digital currencies in international payments after legislative changes allowed them to be used in response to Western sanctions. This year, Russia allowed the use of cryptocurrencies in foreign trade and has taken steps to legalize the mining of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin. Russia is one of the leading countries in Bitcoin mining in the world. "Such transactions are already taking place. We believe that such transactions should be further expanded and developed. I believe this will be the case next year," Siluanov said, adding that the use of digital currencies for international payments represents a future trend.

▌The U.S. Treasury Department and the IRS finalized the tax reporting requirements for certain cryptocurrency brokers

According to market news, the U.S. Treasury Department and the IRS finalized the tax reporting requirements for certain cryptocurrency brokers (RIN 1545-BR39, TD 10021). The Biden administration's progress in the development of this regulatory system has been delayed due to the cryptocurrency industry's resistance to tracking transactions.

▌The U.S. crypto industry calls on Congress to block new regulations for DeFi brokers

The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) announced new regulations on December 27, defining some decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols as brokers and requiring them to fulfill customer identification (KYC) obligations, which triggered strong opposition from the crypto industry. The regulation is expected to affect up to 875 DeFi brokers and 2.6 million taxpayers. Legal experts criticized the rule for allegedly exceeding authority and possibly infringing on constitutional rights. Alexander Grieve, vice president of Paradigm, called on the new "pro-crypto Congress" to repeal the regulation through the Congressional Review Act (CRA). The Blockchain Association called the rule "a last-ditch attempt to push the U.S. crypto industry overseas" and said it would take action to fight it. It was previously reported that the IRS requires "DeFi brokers" to collect user transaction information.

▌CryptoQuant founder: Trump's Bitcoin policy depends on the economic status of the United States

Ki Young Ju, CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, said that President-elect Donald Trump's Bitcoin policy may depend on the global investment community's view of the U.S. economy and the strength of the dollar. Ju believes that when investors believe that the U.S. economic hegemony is threatened, the prices of value-stored assets such as gold and BTC will soar. However, investors continue to express confidence in the U.S. economy and view the dollar as a safe haven currency. This dominant position makes it unlikely that the Trump administration will adopt a strategic reserve of Bitcoin to protect the dominance of the dollar and may cause the president-elect to backtrack on policies supporting Bitcoin.

Blockchain Applications

▌World Network Global Participating Users Exceed 20 Million

According to World's official statement, as of December, World Network's global participants have exceeded 20 million, of which about 9.5 million are verified real users, covering all continents except Antarctica. There are 800,000 new users per week, 355,000 verified users, and more than 8 million active World App users per month, equivalent to a new user joining every 0.75 seconds. With the rapid development of AI technology, "Proof of Human" is becoming a key technology to deal with the online identity trust crisis. According to the Stanford University 2024 AI Index report, 52% of Americans are concerned about AI products, and 66% believe that AI will have a significant impact on their lives within 3-5 years.

▌Lido releases Ethereum staking SDK, supporting cross-chain staking function integration

Lido announced the launch of the Ethereum staking SDK, a TypeScript tool library for building off-chain integrations. The SDK allows developers to seamlessly integrate Lido staking functions into off-chain applications, providing core functions such as staking, reward tracking, withdrawals, and packaging. The newly released SDK has multi-chain support features, allowing staking/unstaking operations on networks such as OP Mainnet without cross-chain. The tool contains pre-built methods and complete documentation, which can be used to develop DeFi protocols, dashboards, or new staking products.

▌Bio Protocol announces 2025 roadmap, will launch new BIO Launchpad, etc.

Decentralized science (DeSci) management and liquidity protocol Bio Protocol announced its 2025 roadmap, including: BIO tokens will be TGE on the Ethereum mainnet on January 3; BIO tokens will be launched on Solana and Base networks; New BioDAO launched; BIO/BioDAO liquidity pool; New BIO Launchpad officially launched.

▌Forbes predicts seven major trends in the crypto industry in 2025

Forbes predicts seven major trends in the crypto industry in 2025: 1. G7 or BRICS countries will establish strategic Bitcoin reserves; 2. The market value of stablecoins will double to US$400 billion; 3. The Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem will achieve rapid growth with the help of L2 networks (such as Stacks, BOB, Babylon), and the locked volume is expected to exceed the current US$24 billion of cross-chain packaged Bitcoin; 4. Crypto ETF products will expand to tracks such as Ethereum staking and Solana; 5. Technology giants such as Apple and Microsoft may follow Tesla's example and increase their holdings of Bitcoin; 6. The total market value of the crypto market will exceed US$8 trillion; 7. The improvement of the US regulatory environment will drive the revival of crypto entrepreneurship.

▌Crypto mining company HIVE Digital invests $30 million to deploy NVIDIA chip clusters

Crypto mining company HIVE Digital Technologies (NASDAQ: HIVE) announced the deployment of a new batch of NVIDIA GPU clusters in Quebec. The total investment in the project is $30 million, including 248 H100 GPUs (32 nodes) and 508 H200 GPUs (64 nodes). The H100 cluster will be put into operation by the end of 2024, and the annualized revenue of HPC business is expected to reach $15 million in the next quarter; the H200 cluster will arrive in January 2025 and is scheduled to be deployed in the second quarter of 2025, with an expected annualized revenue of more than $20 million. HIVE Executive Chairman Frank Holmes said that the revenue potential of 10 MW of HPC NVIDIA chips serving AI needs is equivalent to the revenue of 100 MW of Bitcoin mining. Cryptocurrency Ethereum NFT trading volume rose to $186 million last week, a three-month high According to data from The Block, Ethereum NFT trading volume rose to $186 million last week, a three-month high, up 67% from $111 million the previous week. The Pudgy Penguins series was the main catalyst for the craze after the release of its PENGU token, which generated $108 million in trading volume. The trading price of a single Pudgy Penguin once exceeded 29 ETH, but it fell rapidly after the token was issued. Bitcoin is the second largest NFT ecosystem, with a weekly trading volume of only $33 million.

▌Goldman Sachs CEO: Many regulated US banks cannot touch cryptocurrencies, and it is still unclear how regulation will evolve

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon pointed out at a recent Reuters conference that many regulated US banks still cannot touch cryptocurrencies. "Everyone is speculating how the regulatory framework will evolve, but it is still unclear how the regulatory framework will evolve," Solomon added. At present, people are still speculating how long it will take for the first crypto bill to pass the House and Senate, as well as Trump.

▌Telegram founder: total revenue exceeds $1 billion this year

Telegram founder Pavel Durov posted on his personal TG channel that the number of Telegram Premium subscribers has tripled this year to more than 12 million, and advertising revenue has also increased several times. In addition, Telegram's total revenue in 2024 exceeded $1 billion, and its cash reserves at the end of the year exceeded $500 million, excluding crypto assets. In the past four years, Telegram has issued about $2 billion in debt. Coinbase report: The total market value of stablecoins has increased by 48% since the beginning of 2024. A report from Coinbase shows that the total market value of stablecoins has increased by 48% since the beginning of 2024. 2 whales increased their holdings of 4.47 million ai16z According to Lookonchain monitoring, 2 whales are hoarding ai16z. AVLKwK...x1Mv spent 3.71 million USDC today to buy 2.96 million ai16z at about $1.253. 65FwXv...T4HE spent 10,000 SOL ($1.88 million) today to buy 1.51 million ai16z at about $1.247.

Important Economic Dynamics

▌The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January next year is 87.2%

According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January next year is 87.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 12.8%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by March next year is 50.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 44.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5.4%.

▌VanEck: Bitcoin reserve strategy may cut US debt by 35%, offsetting about $42 trillion in liabilities

Asset management company VanEck said that if the United States establishes a reserve of 1 million Bitcoins in accordance with the bill proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, the US national debt can be reduced by 35% in the next 24 years. VanEck's estimate assumes that Bitcoin will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% to $42.3 million in 2049, while the US national debt will climb at a compound annual growth rate of 5% from $37 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to $119.3 trillion in the same period. “By 2049, the reserve could account for 35% of the national debt, offsetting approximately $42 trillion in liabilities,” Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and investment analyst Nathan Frankovitz said in a Dec. 20 report. "

▌Wall Street: 2-year Treasury yields predicted to fall 50 basis points next year

Despite the looming threat to the bond market from President-elect Trump's trade and tax policies, Wall Street is taking its cue from the Federal Reserve and predicting lower short-term Treasury yields in 2025. Strategists are mostly in agreement on a decline in 2-year Treasury yields, which are more sensitive to the Fed's interest rate policy. They believe that 12 months from now, yields will fall by at least 50 basis points from current levels. The median forecast of 12 strategists is that the 2-year Treasury yield will fall by about 50 basis points to 3.75% in a year. For the longer-term 10-year Treasury, strategists believe that the yield, which was about 4.52% last Friday, will reach 4.25% by the end of 2025, about 25 basis points below current levels.

▌The won exchange rate fell below 1480 won to the dollar, the lowest since 2009

On December 27, the won exchange rate against the dollar in the Seoul foreign exchange market broke through 1480 won to the dollar. Prior to this, the political turmoil in South Korea caused the won to continue to fall. On December 19, the won exchange rate against the dollar opened at 1453.0 won to the dollar in the Seoul foreign exchange market, setting the lowest value of the won exchange rate against the dollar since March 2009. (Jinshi)

▌The US dollar index has risen by more than 7% so far this year, the best performance since 2015