Two main themes of the crypto market in the second half of 2025: interest rate cut game and system reconstruction

Author: NingNing

As we enter the end of June, the situation of the crypto market in 25 years has become very clear!

There are two main lines of trading logic throughout this year's crypto market:

1. One clear line is the dispute between US President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell over whether to cut interest rates this year.

Although most macro analysts refuse to introduce political dimensions to analyze the dispute between Trump and Powell over whether to cut interest rates, those who understand understand. Whether to cut interest rates or not has no direct relationship with US inflation data and non-agricultural employment. It is actually a major gripper of the political game between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the United States.

Observing the current FedWatch rate cut expectations, Polymarket forecasts and Twitter public opinion, we can find that Powell now firmly controls the discourse power in the financial market, and Trump can only rely on various tariff wars to exert extreme pressure and spit on social media to tear off some financial market influence.

Therefore, before the two major game equilibrium points in the future - Powell's expiration in May 26 and the US mid-term elections, the entire market is in an uncertain state brought about by the confrontational game between Powell tightening the market liquidity tap and Trump fanning the flames everywhere.

2. A hidden line is the integration of cryptocurrencies into the traditional financial system and participating in the reshaping of the US dollar financial system.

Whether it is to increase the strategic reserves of Bitcoin in the United States under the principle of fiscal neutrality in planning, or the US version of the debt-to-equity plan to increase the scale of stablecoins to more than 2 trillion US dollars in a few years, including the next market structure bill to clarify whether the regulator of the crypto market is the SEC or the CFTC and whether PerpDEX represented by Hyperliquid can operate in the United States, Trump's regulatory actions and Vance's public speeches are all clear that the Trump administration regards cryptocurrency as an organic part of reshaping the 21st century US dollar financial system.

Therefore, 25 years is destined to be a year of uncertainty. Our retail investors' investment and trading this year are like a small boat sailing into the stormy waves and violent storms. It is simply epic to make money from investment and trading this year.

But 25 years is not a year of lying flat. Finding certainty in uncertainty is the way of the wise.

I am optimistic about two opportunities for deterministic layout for 26 years:

US version of debt - stable currency - PayFi-RWA

CFTC regulated crypto market - PerpDEX-Hyperliquid/ Consumer chain - Abstract

Anyway, our mission for 25 years is not to leave the table, while secretly preparing the trump cards for 26 years.