According to BitKoala on September 16th, when Bitcoin reached a record high of $124,000 in 2025, MicroStrategy (MSTR), once considered a "shadow stock of Bitcoin," exhibited a completely different trend: its share price continued to decline after reaching a peak of $543, currently hovering around $325, a drop of over 40% from Bitcoin's peak. This divergent trend of "leaders rising, followers falling" reflects the diverging valuation logic between strategic stocks and native assets in the crypto market, and has also sparked a heated debate on Wall Street regarding "discount opportunities" and "risk traps." Valuation Divergence: A 50% Discount Opportunity or a Leverage Risk Trap? Market perceptions of MSTR's valuation are sharply divided, creating a fierce battle between two camps. Bullish investors, citing an "asset revaluation" as their core rationale, believe the stock has a significant undervalued position. Based on MSTR's recently disclosed holdings of 185,000 Bitcoins, at the current price of $124,000, its total crypto holdings are valued at approximately $229.4 billion, corresponding to 350 million shares and a Bitcoin value of approximately $655 per share. The current share price of $325 represents a roughly 50% discount to this "liquidation value," a core argument for bulls. They believe the market is undervaluing MSTR's Bitcoin holdings, and as investor demand for crypto assets grows, the stock's valuation will eventually converge with the value of its Bitcoin assets. Bearish investors, on the other hand, focus on MSTR's two main concerns: leverage risk and competitive diversion. Financial data shows that as of the second quarter of 2025, MSTR had accumulated over $3.8 billion in debt through convertible bonds, collateralized financing, and other means to increase its Bitcoin holdings. Approximately 60% of its debt is floating-rate financing. If the Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate environment, annual interest expenses will exceed $200 million, equivalent to 15% of its 2024 revenue. More crucially, 40% of MSTR's Bitcoin holdings are pledged to financial institutions. A single-day drop in Bitcoin prices exceeding 15% could trigger the risk of liquidation, leading to a vicious cycle of passive selling of Bitcoin and plummeting stock prices. The popularity of Bitcoin spot ETFs has further diminished MSTR's investment appeal. Since the US approved the first Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2024, global Bitcoin ETF assets under management have exceeded $80 billion by August 2025, with products like BlackRock's IBIT and Vanguard's BTCO boasting an average daily trading volume exceeding $5 billion. These ETFs allow investors to directly track Bitcoin prices without the operational risks, leverage, and tax complexities of listed companies, creating a "substitution effect" for MSTR. Data shows that in the second quarter of 2025, institutional ownership of MSTR declined by 3.2 percentage points, while Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $12 billion during the same period. This "voting with their feet" by investors highlights the competitive disadvantages of strategic stocks. The Triple Logic Behind the Lagging of Strategic Stocks: From Asset Attributes to Market Transmission MSTR's stock price struggles to keep up with Bitcoin's gains. This is fundamentally due to the inherent differences in attributes and transmission mechanisms between "pegged assets" and "native assets," manifesting itself in three key areas: The "dilution effect" of value transmission is the core reason. As a decentralized, native crypto asset, Bitcoin's price directly reflects global market supply and demand, macro liquidity, and consensus strength, without any intermediate value loss. MSTR, on the other hand, is a hybrid of "Bitcoin + a listed company." Its stock price depends not only on Bitcoin prices but also on variables such as the company's leverage ratio, operating costs, and management decisions. For example, when Bitcoin rose 12% in June 2025, MSTR's stock price only rose 3% due to the disclosure of an additional $200 million in high-interest loans. This leverage directly diluted the transmission efficiency of Bitcoin's gains. The "asymmetry" of risk exposure further widens the gap. Bitcoin's risk primarily stems from market volatility, while MSTR faces a "double risk": on the one hand, it bears the base risk of Bitcoin's price fluctuations, and on the other, it faces corporate-level credit and liquidity risks. Historical data shows that when Bitcoin rises, MSTR's stock price typically rises by only 60%-70% of Bitcoin's value (due to the limited leverage effect and the need to deduct financial costs). On the other hand, when Bitcoin falls, MSTR's stock price often declines by 1.5-2 times that of Bitcoin (leverage accelerates losses). This asymmetry of "small increases and large decreases" has made it difficult for MSTR to keep up with Bitcoin's upward trend over the long term. This "marginalization" of its market positioning has exacerbated liquidity differentiation. As the market for derivatives like Bitcoin ETFs, futures, and options matures, professional investors are more inclined to allocate Bitcoin through standardized instruments, and MSTR's role as a "transitional tool" has gradually weakened. In the second quarter of 2025, MSTR's average daily trading volume fell from $1.5 billion in 2024 to $800 million, while the IBIT ETF's average daily trading volume reached $6.2 billion. This decline in liquidity has led to a slower reaction of MSTR's stock price to Bitcoin's gains, creating a discrepancy between "Bitcoin hitting new highs and MSTR trading being quiet." Options Hedging: A "Safety Cushion" Strategy in High Volatility Faced with the high volatility of Bitcoin and MSTR, options have become a key tool for investors balancing risk and return. Three major hedging strategies have emerged in the market: Protective Put Options are the preferred defensive option for position holders. Taking the current stock price of $325 as an example, investors can buy a put option with a strike price of $300 and an expiration date of one month, paying a premium of approximately $12. If MSTR's stock price falls below $300, the put option's profit will offset the stock's decline. If the stock price rises, only the $12 premium will be lost, preserving any upside gains. Data shows that in August 2025, MSTR put option trading volume increased 45% compared to July, reflecting heightened market concerns about downside risks. Covered call options are suitable for long-term holders to reduce costs. While holding MSTR stock, investors sell a call option with a strike price of $350 and an expiration date of one month, receiving a premium of approximately $8. If the stock price falls below $350 on the expiration date, the $8 premium is received, reducing the holding cost. If the stock price breaks through $350, the option is exercised at $350, missing out on some gains but locking in gains early. This strategy is particularly effective when MSTR's stock price fluctuates sideways, and is currently used by approximately 20% of institutional holders. Spread option combinations cater to the gambling needs of high-risk investors. Aggressive investors can construct a "bull spread" strategy: buying a $320 call option (premium $15) and simultaneously selling a $360 call option (premium $8), for a net cost of $7. If the stock price rises to $360 by expiration, the combination will earn $33 (360 - $320 - $7), a return of 371%. If the stock price falls below $320, the loss is only $7. This strategy is widely used when anticipating a short-term rebound in MSTR driven by Bitcoin. Trading volume for this strategy increased by 60% month-over-month in August 2025. The common revelation of asset intermediation: the logical resonance from MSTR to Pokémon cards. The relationship between MSTR and Bitcoin is similar to the relationship between physical Pokémon cards and RWA-based NFTs—both reflect the pricing difference between "intermediated assets" and "native assets." The Collector Crypt platform, previously analyzed, NFTized Pokémon cards, while addressing the circulation pain points of traditional collectibles, remains influenced by intermediary variables such as platform operations, authentication costs, and token economics, making it difficult to fully equate the value of physical cards. Similarly, as a "stock intermediary" for Bitcoin, MSTR's price is also subject to additional factors such as company operations, leverage, and market sentiment, making it impossible to fully replicate Bitcoin's price appreciation. Some analysts believe that MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy can only generate profits if the cryptocurrency continues to rise. This phenomenon reveals a core principle of the financialization of alternative assets: the higher the degree of intermediation, the greater the potential deviation of asset prices from their original value. Whether it's the RWA (Real Value Account) model of Pokémon cards or the equities of Bitcoin, the risks and costs of intermediaries (platforms and listed companies) will become obstacles to value transmission. Investors must clearly understand the nature of the "discount" of intermediary assets—this discount can represent either opportunity or a "discount" on risk, requiring a comprehensive assessment based on the qualifications of the intermediary, market liquidity, and the maturity of alternative instruments. As the Bitcoin ecosystem continues to improve, the debate over MSTR's valuation will continue, but one thing is certain: strategic stocks are unlikely to replace Bitcoin as the "growth leader" in the crypto market. Their future will primarily serve as a "supplemental option" for investors with lower risk appetite who need to allocate Bitcoin through stock accounts. Behind this valuation game lies the long-term struggle between crypto asset standardization and intermediation tools, the outcome of which will profoundly impact the allocation logic of alternative assets.
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