Waiting for the Monad mainnet launch at a crossroads

Author: yyy Source: X: @y_cryptoanalyst

Introduction:

Berachain's mainnet launch and ecosystem development have severely fallen short of expectations, shattering the plans of native ecosystem protocols for a time-tested general election (TGE). On-chain protocols that have yet to issue tokens have become victims of the Bearchain TGE.

With Bearchain as a lesson, Monad is at a critical juncture, just as it's about to launch its mainnet TGE. What's next for ecosystem protocols? Some project owners have already exited, while others remain steadfast. Monad and Berachain are arguably the two high-performance L1 chains favored by investors in this bull market. One represents the ultimate Ponzi scheme, while the other leads the evolution of ultra-high-performance public chains. Institutional investors are also drawn to the native ecosystem protocols of Berachain and Monad. Berachain's star protocol @InfraredFinance has raised nearly $20 million in three rounds; @honeypotfinance, valued at $20 million; @origami_fi, in which Berachain's founder and many Bearchain OGs participated in the financing;

Berachain launched its mainnet and synchronized its TGE on February 6th, but seven months later, many protocols on Berachain still have not yet conducted TGE.

The financing data of @monad chain's ecological protocols is more impressive than that of Berachain ecology: MEV and LSD infrastructure layer @apr_labs completed multiple rounds of financing totaling US$30.7 million; native CLOB DEX protocol @KuruExchange completed 2 rounds of financing totaling US$13.6 million; native perp DEX @perpltrade completed US$9.25 million in financing; prediction market protocol @opinionlabsxyz completed US$5 million in Pre-Seed round of financing...

Without exception, the ecological protocols on the Monad chain are waiting for the launch of the Monad mainnet to start tge. The Grand Game of TGE Timing for Ecosystem Protocols The timing of a TGE for a top-tier on-chain ecosystem protocol is a grand game. Some projects choose to exit to other chains before their mainnet launch, others immediately after, and still others wait and see how the ecosystem heats up and the overall crypto environment develops. I wouldn't call these TGE timings a "big gamble," but rather a "grand game." The reason is that "gambling" is based on completely asymmetric information. Ecosystem project developers are the most familiar with public chain teams and have a strong sense of whether they are delivering results or just empty talk. However, the ecosystem development and changes after the public chain mainnet launch are not fully under the control of the team and are fraught with uncertainty and unknowns. Ecosystem project developers' room for maneuver lies in the public chain team's market-making capabilities, call volume, incentives, and, most importantly, expectations for future crypto market trends. During the long wait for @monad's mainnet launch, many project developers gave up and chose to leave for other chains. Representative projects, such as Monad's native LSD protocol @Kintsu_xyz, ultimately chose to launch their mainnet on the @HyperliquidX chain. Postscript: According to multiple sources, @monad plans to launch its mainnet and tge in Q4. Before the mainnet launch, some protocols like @Kintsu_xyz may choose to leave; but I believe more native protocols will remain. Betting the survival of a protocol on a single native public chain—a shared success—is a truly remarkable move.