What kind of cause and effect has “Trump 2.0” planted for contemporary people?

Author: Yin Yue

Those panicked young people under Trump 2.0

This week, the riots in Los Angeles have become the biggest news in the United States, and last week people were still discussing whether Harvard's international students should stay or go. Before that, everyone was still paying attention to the Sino-US tariff negotiations. Does it feel like tariffs have been around for a long time? Trump provoked a trade war in early April.

It has only been half a year since Trump 2.0, and Trump vs. Zelensky, Trump vs. International Trade, Trump vs. China, Trump vs. Harvard, and now Trump vs. California have already happened. If the keyword throughout Trump 1.0 is "uncertainty", then the keyword of Trump 2.0 is more like "disorder" - uncertainty at least anchors a more reasonable path, while "disorder" no longer has even an ideal sample. Everything that happens has nothing to do with the past rules, and it will still be unexpected next time.

When the US tariff on China soared to 145%, a founder of a clothing brand told me that they had spent a year laying out production lines and teams, hoping to enter the US market in a big way in 2025. Even though a tariff plan had been made for the 2024 election, the ferocity of reality surpassed all preparations. After the company's overseas strategy was strangled by a government decree, all the layout costs were sunk, and it had to face a series of procedures such as dismissal compensation. Affected employees have to look for jobs again just one year after working.

When China and the United States reached a tariff agreement, the 145% tariff was reduced out of thin air. I asked the founder if he planned to continue to go to the United States, and he just smiled and said, "Let's take a long-term view."

The U.S. media also mentioned in their reports after the tariff negotiations that the U.S. market's response was only "cautiously optimistic" -The stormy waves in the future are still unpredictable.

The company still has the ability to resist risks, but the international students are really helpless. Some American schools even suggested that international students not use their real names and turn off their cameras in online discussions.

On the US Zhihu Reddit, a post titled "Are there any international students giving up studying in the US?" is filled with helpless complaints from international students from various countries. One highly praised reply said: "There is only pressure here, because all your actions will be considered to have other purposes." Another user who has already obtained a visa said that he is considering transferring to Europe because he is worried that his visa will be revoked after enrollment.

A Chinese student in the US I talked to said: "Everyone is living in fear and with their tails between their legs." He said it calmly, without resentment or anger, just a sense of dormancy before the harsh winter - just like an animal instinctively crouching before danger comes. Students from different schools all agree with this sentiment of "living in silence": "Everyone keeps their heads down during class, tries not to participate in class discussions with strong opinions, and does not actively participate in campus activities."

This frightened attitude is not only heartbreaking, but also regrettable. The competitive environment of American universities emphasizes personal heroism the most. Being a nobody is equivalent to giving up the opportunities and resources of the school. But who can blame these students? Cutting off one's arm to survive is probably the most pragmatic way to live at the moment.

At the end of our voice call, the international student repeatedly begged me not to reveal any personal information, not even to explain the east and west coasts, and not even to use a pseudonym. It seems that any mention of personal identity will bring disaster.

Many people have experienced different versions of the chaos in Los Angeles on their own tracks.

Falling from a Broken Order: The Helplessness and Silence of a Generation

In fact, tariff adjustments are common, and visa trends change from time to time. But the drastic turn of politics is the storm that ordinary people cannot avoid. People who grew up in an era of peace and order have long been accustomed to using an existing set of causal logic to understand the world: cross-cultural development can inspire new advantages, developed economies will bring broader opportunities, and a degree from a prestigious university can unlock opportunities in the world... But now, this causal chain has collapsed before the eyes of several generations - the background of other countries has become the original sin of "their hearts must be different", and commercial activities have become a hidden danger to national security; and those elite individuals who go international are the first to be crushed. The order in the past was not perfect, and it would not be an exaggeration to say that it was riddled with holes. But when people ridicule "the world is a makeshift team", they forget that they were originally flowing in this order. The old order collapsed, but the new rules have not yet arrived. The efforts of individuals are like a raft with a broken line, which can only be carried up and down by the undercurrent.

This is very similar to the "learned helplessness" defined in psychology. This theory proposed by American psychologist Martin Seligman reveals a fact about our thinking mode: "Helplessness" is a skill acquired after birth. When an individual's efforts cannot affect the outcome of an event, helplessness will arise. When the individual's repeated efforts fail to bring about changes, the sense of helplessness is reinforced again and again, causing the individual to completely give up hope and stop taking action.

In the experiment that discovered this psychological pattern, Seligman used mild electric shocks to stimulate the experimental dogs. As long as the dogs could jump over the baffle, the electric shock would stop. At the end of the experiment, the dogs that failed to jump over the baffle could only lie motionless and be shocked. Even after being released into the natural environment, they became indifferent to snacks, hugs and touches.

In an experiment with pigeons, Seligman discovered the same psychological pattern - the experimenter installed an automatic feeder in the pigeon cage. When a pigeon flapped its wings and food fell, the pigeon established the causal cognition of "flapping wings = food falling". But when the experimenter changed the feeder to a random drop mode, the pigeons found that flapping wings could not bring food. The pigeons became confused and panicked. They flapped harder and jumped more crazily, showing obvious anxiety.

Finally, the same results were repeated when conducting experiments with human volunteers.

The most counterintuitive part of this experiment is that positive results can also cause helplessness. For example, the laziness of some second-generation rich people, or the loss after unexpected wealth. The logic is consistent - when effort has nothing to do with rewards, individuals will have a reduced sense of control over their destiny and doubt their own value: If everything that happens has nothing to do with me, then what is the meaning of my existence?

In today's highly globalized world, international political games have already penetrated into all areas. The chess pieces still follow the rules of the horse moving in the day and the elephant moving in the field, but they don't know that even the longitude and latitude on the chessboard have been distorted. The rupture of "cause and effect" is not only an emotional shock, but also a collapse of the worldview. Because of this, cheap emotional value will flood here, because what we need is not just to rebuild confidence.

A helpless generation and a temple without gods

When learned helplessness becomes the emotional background of a generation, it is a collective disability that deserves vigilance. It permeates the way a generation faces its fate and permeates everyone's understanding of hope, effort and life.

American political scientist Ronald Inglehart's research on intergenerational values ​​points out that in the choice between material satisfaction and the pursuit of meaning, what really affects people's value orientation is not a simple economic foundation, but a subjective comprehensive feeling of "whether survival is safe enough." When international politics surges into the lives of ordinary people, shattering everyone's sense of control and security in life, and when "current efforts" cannot be anchored in "future changes", society begins to hibernate itself - no longer advocating meaning and adventure, but turning to survival and avoidance.

This is a structural downgrade. It cunningly hides in the verbal battles on social media, the emotional value of the traffic market, and the extreme silence of the groups involved. People mistakenly think that it is anger, division and opposition, but it is just the helplessness of individuals in the face of reality.

In this state, young people put away their aspirations for the stars and the sea, and instead worship the food and clothing in front of them, and build temples without gods in silence.

Another fate of contemporary people: Not all sinking is hopeless

Sinking may not be the only ending for contemporary people. There is a meaningful detail in Seligman's research.

He found that as long as the experimental subjects were given even a hint of "controllability" - such as a fake button that could terminate the experiment at any time - even if they did not really use it, the helplessness reported by the volunteers after the experiment was significantly reduced. In this version of the experiment, the only difference is that people believe "I still have power."

For animals, "learned helplessness" is also reversible. When the experimenters faced the experimental dogs that had learned to be helpless, they found that even toys and food could not excite them. The researchers finally consulted the trainer. The trainer's advice was: "Just kick the dog out of the electric shock area." After the experimenters did so, the dog was stunned for a few seconds, and found that after the electric shock stopped, it became active again.

For the dog in despair, that kick was almost a kind of religious miracle.

Seligman proposed: The key to breaking helplessness is "sense of control" - the individual believes that his behavior can still shake reality, even if it is just a slight touch. In fact, "sense of control" itself is also a kind of empowerment, which makes the individual believe that he has power. Sometimes this touch comes from others, but more often, the door will be kicked open by ourselves. In short, what we need is never a miracle.

For contemporary people to avoid the crossroads of becoming a "degenerate generation", they must find the power to "wake themselves up" in their hearts and interrupt the helplessness they have learned from the times. It does not require elegance or decency, but only tenacity and belief. Even in an era of disorder, we can still face the disorder of this era.

And that kind of power may be the philosophy that our generation can construct after experiencing the collapse and crushing of the times. We have lost the original cause and effect, but we are also forced to embark on an unknown journey to find new meaning.