Why are billionaires, from Trump to CZ, betting on "prediction markets"?

Author: Blockchain Revelation

Imagine a place where you can bet on anything: Who will be the next US president? Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates next month? Even, will your favorite actor win this year's Oscar?

In 2025, this market experienced truly "explosive growth." Just this past October, its trading volume surged by a staggering 91% compared to the previous month, reaching an astonishing $8.4 billion. Weekly trading volume even historically broke the $2 billion mark, and the entire market was burning hot. This wasn't a slow evolution; it was a sudden gold rush.

Behind this explosion are three powerful forces that cannot be ignored; when political leaders, Wall Street, and the crypto core all turn their attention and money to the same place, we must ask one question: What exactly do they see?

The answer splits into two distinct yet equally compelling stories. Chapter One: Big Shots Enter the Game, the Rules Begin to Change. Character One: Trump's "Truth Prediction"—Social Media Meets Financial Betting. This week, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) announced its entry into the prediction market through the Truth Social platform, officially launching the "Truth Predict" service. An Evolution of Political Marketing: A Carefully Designed "Social + Financial" Hybrid. Imagine this scenario: You see a post on Truth Social about the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, and with a few clicks, you can convert "Truth gems" rewarded by the platform into CRO tokens for betting. This is no longer the traditional "first opinion, then bet" model, but a completely new "socialize, bet" model. Truth Predict's ambitions extend far beyond this: User-oriented: The goal is to "democratize information" for its 6.3 million users. Betting scope: From political elections to sporting events, from commodities to Federal Reserve decisions. Viral spread: Every bet can become social media content, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of dissemination. More importantly, the platform uses a binary contract structure regulated by the CFTC, cleverly circumventing the legal definition of "gambling." In this regulatory gray area, the Trump team's instincts remain as sharp as ever. *Truth Predict's Beta test will soon begin on Truth Social, targeting US users and supporting betting on events such as elections, economic indicators, sports, and commodity prices.* *Role Two: CZ's Decentralized Strategy: From Behind the Scenes to the Forefront* *Compared to Trump's high-profile approach, the strategy of CZ, a key figure in the crypto space, is more covert yet equally precise.* Through YZi Labs (formerly Binance Labs, founded in 2018), CZ invested in two key projects: Opinion Labs, which builds a decentralized "truth oracle," and APRO Oracle, a "decentralized oracle network specifically serving the Bitcoin ecosystem." CZ's statements on Twitter are intriguing: "Prediction markets urgently need dedicated oracles," and "Although we are only a few investors, we will do our best to help increase strategic value." This reveals an important signal: CZ is not only interested in the prediction market itself, but also in the data infrastructure behind it. In other words, when prediction markets become mainstream applications, the verification of data authenticity will undoubtedly have significant weight. Whoever controls the verification of data authenticity indirectly holds the power to influence the new ecosystem. Opinion Labs' mainnet launched on BNB Chain on October 16, 2025, and is currently in an invitation-only Beta phase, with a cumulative transaction volume exceeding $300 million (testnet + mainnet Beta). Meanwhile, the APRO Oracle Beta test began on October 28, initially targeting BNB Chain and Bitcoin Layer 2 developers, and AI validator node registration is now open. Role Three: Wall Street's Expectations: ICE's $2 Billion Bets Most shockingly, ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, invested $2 billion in Polymarket. This is more than just an investment; it's an "official endorsement" of prediction markets by traditional finance. $2 billion is not a small sum for Wall Street, especially for an institution known for its conservatism. ICE has always been drawn to "hardcore finance"—in 2013, it spent approximately $11 billion to acquire NYSE Euronext, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange; in 2018, it launched the crypto asset platform Bakkt with an initial investment of only $180 million. These figures, taken together, are enough to illustrate the point: ICE is betting on a completely different future. Why? Because prediction markets don't aggregate capital, but rather dispersed judgments. In an era dominated by algorithms, data is already saturated; what's truly scarce is human insight. When traders, programmers, professors, and gamblers all place bets on the same platform, they inadvertently produce an extremely valuable indicator—collective expectation. This investment may mark a shift: when mainstream financial institutions begin to treat prediction markets as sources of information rather than toys, the coordinates of the financial world will subtly shift. Algorithmic trading, risk models, and investment strategies—all may be recalibrated because of these "market-driven predictions."

*CNBC, as a leading global financial media outlet, reports on this event primarily due to its significant financial and market impact

Chapter Two: The Motives of Billionaires—Two Dramatic Stories

Crypto Perspective: The Unexpected Holy Grail of DeFi?

This first story perfectly addresses a long-standing and awkward dilemma in the crypto world: How can DeFi (Decentralized Finance) be made accessible to the masses? For years, the promise of "DeFi democratization" has been considered the holy grail of the crypto world. However, the reality is that complex wallets, difficult-to-understand private key management, and abstract yield logic have acted as a high wall, keeping 99% of ordinary people out. DeFi has always been an insider game for "crypto natives." However, prediction markets may become that "unexpected breakthrough." It may become the first DeFi product to achieve mass adoption because it completely revolutionizes the user experience: It's intuitive and fun, not mind-bending and complex: participation is similar to "guessing," betting on your judgment of the real world, rather than requiring you to understand "liquidity pools" or "impermanent loss." Predicting whether the next Marvel movie will gross over $1 billion is far more intuitive than calculating complex DeFi yields. It's strongly coupled with the real world, rather than being ethereal: prediction markets target verifiable events: presidential elections, sporting events, policies, and regulations. This directly links the abstract value of blockchain to real life, giving it an unprecedented sense of "reality." It's becoming more user-friendly, not just for geeks: major platforms are striving to allow users to participate directly with credit cards and email addresses, completely hiding the complex blockchain technology behind the scenes. You don't even need to know what a wallet is to bet on the next Super Bowl. In this story, prediction markets are the "Trojan horse" that allows DeFi to penetrate the mainstream. Using the most human-friendly elements of "guessing" and "gossip" as a guise, it quietly brings blockchain technology to the fingertips of tens or even hundreds of millions of users. This is more than just growth; it could be a decisive step for the Web3 world from an "on-chain economy" to "real-world participation." Political Perspective: The "Secret Weapon" of Democracy However, the other side of the coin is a story about power and public opinion. What is the core of politics? It's not just about winning votes, but about shaping voters' "expectations." And prediction markets are precisely a perfect "expectation-generating machine." Imagine that on the eve of an election, a candidate's chances of winning are boosted to 78% on the prediction market. This number itself is a highly impactful news story. The media will cite it ("Market predicts XX will win overwhelmingly"), social networks will spread it, and voters will see it. This "guaranteed victory" halo backed by money will spread like a virus, shaking centrists, demoralizing opponents, and even creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of "everyone kicking someone when they're down." Even more frightening is that this provides power with a completely new and difficult-to-account-for tool for influence. In the past, politicians needed to influence public opinion through the media or direct speech; now, you might need a large enough sum of money and a "suitable" platform. By heavily betting in the market, politicians can "buy" a probability favorable to themselves in the short term, and then let the media and the public amplify that signal. When questioned, they can simply shrug and innocently declare, "I didn't lie; I was just making a legitimate investment." When we see Donald Trump Jr. become an advisor to Polymarket, and when the capital associated with him pours tens of millions of dollars into the platform, we should be wary: is this really just a simple investment? In this story, prediction markets are no longer a "crystal ball" for gathering wisdom, but a "secret weapon" that can be used to shape public opinion. Conclusion: Power Restructuring in a Game of Probability. So, are prediction markets the "unexpected holy grail" of DeFi, or a "secret weapon" of democracy? The answer might be: both. It has the potential to become an unprecedented information aggregation tool, allowing the "wisdom of the masses" to shine with unprecedented efficiency; it could also degenerate into a battlefield of public opinion captured by huge amounts of capital and political power, allowing the "biggest wallets" to define what "truth" is. Currently, Kalshi and Polymarket hold the vast majority of the market share, with the former accounting for approximately 60-66% and the latter 34%. When platforms like Robinhood open event contract trading to their 20 million users, the market's influence will grow exponentially. The next 12-24 months will be crucial. Can prediction markets achieve mass adoption while maintaining their decentralized ideals? Can they remain innovative while accepting regulation? Can they uphold the public interest while achieving commercial success? The answers to these questions will determine whether prediction markets become tools for social progress or weapons that exacerbate inequality and manipulation. And each of us will be a participant and witness in this game of probability.