Why Bitcoin Will Never Fall Below $50,000 Again

Source: On-Chain Mind, Compiled by Shaw Jinse Finance I'm increasingly convinced that the price of Bitcoin will never fall below $50,000 again. In the world of Bitcoin analysis, predictions of the next mania peak consistently dominate the headlines. But few pause to consider a more practical—and arguably more useful—question: What's the worst-case scenario from now on? In this article, I'll explore five different perspectives—covering technical, probabilistic, and on-chain perspectives—all pointing to a striking conclusion: It's extremely unlikely that Bitcoin will fall below $50,000 again. This is a bold assertion, and I'd love to be wrong. But when the data is so compelling, it's hard to ignore. Let's get started.

Key Points

• Technical Benchmarks: Long-term moving averages and logarithmic patterns provide rising support levels for Bitcoin's price action.

• Probabilistic and On-Chain Insights: Statistical biases and holder behavior have identified reliable bear market bottoms in the past.

• Cyclic Dynamics: Analyzing historical maximum drawdowns and peak forecasts can anticipate the worst-case scenarios in future bear markets.

• Long-Term View: Continued adoption and the devaluation of fiat currencies ensure that Bitcoin's growth trajectory remains upward over a sufficiently long timeframe. 200-Week Moving Average: A Proven Foundation When it comes to identifying reliable support levels for risk assets, few indicators are as revered as the 200-week moving average (200W MA). It represents the average closing price over the past 200 weeks (nearly four years). In the stock market, it has long been considered the last line of defense, indicating that deep corrections often bottom there. For Bitcoin, despite its shorter trading history, it serves the same purpose. Visualization: The 200-week moving average (MA) forms a smooth, upward-sloping curve beneath Bitcoin's price action. The white line represents the 200-week moving average. The chart helps visualize how far the price has extended relative to this baseline. Since 2016, every significant Bitcoin bear market has found support near this line. There was a brief dip during the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin's price briefly dipped below its 200-week moving average due to the collapse of FTX and rising interest rates. However, a quick rebound saw Bitcoin's price quickly recover. Currently, this average hovers around $52,000 and continues to climb steadily, driven by the compounding effects of increasing adoption and price. Looking ahead, given the current price level and upward trend, even a brief dip in the next cycle is unlikely to see the price fall below $50,000. Logarithmic Growth Bands: Charting Bitcoin's Maturation Path Bitcoin's volatility makes traditional linear charts nearly useless for a long-term perspective. Using a logarithmic price scale compresses wild swings, allowing us to observe the asset's maturation process through various cycles. If you've ever looked at a Bitcoin price chart, I'm almost certain you've seen a logarithmic chart. One of my preferred tools for assessing Bitcoin's long-term growth trend is the Logarithmic Growth Bands, which consist of a central trendline with resistance bands above it and support bands below it. These indicators are derived from a regression model with adjustable parameters, including slope (growth rate) and decay (decreasing volatility as the asset matures). Central Growth Bands: $91,000. Upper Band: $214,000. Lower Band: $44,000.
  

  Currently, the central trendline of these range bands lies around $91,000, and this trend continues upward regardless of the market cycle. More importantly, the lower "support" level is now around $44,000. At the current rate of growth, this support level will rise above $50,000 in approximately four months, and there's a chance it won't fall back from there.

  Two forces support this pattern:

  1. Continued growth in adoption: The user base, corporate treasuries, and institutional portfolios are all expanding.

  2. Persistent currency devaluation: Inflation and monetary expansion increase the nominal value of scarce assets like Bitcoin. The combined effect of these structural drivers means that even a "worst-case scenario" for Bitcoin's long-term valuation will trend upward. And while these ranges may narrow slightly over time as the market matures, the bottom will continue to rise inexorably. But this isn't wishful thinking—it's a conclusion based on regression analysis. Without getting into the complicated math, the key point is this: while Bitcoin's astonishing triple-digit annual returns are naturally slowing, the model still suggests a sustainable growth rate of between 20% and 50%. Z-Score Probability Waves: Focusing on Statistical Extremes Technical analysis often appears descriptive, but there are statistical methods for assessing Bitcoin's price performance relative to its history. One of the most effective tools is the Z-Score Probability Wave model. It essentially provides a statistical metric that measures how extreme Bitcoin's price has been relative to its historical norm. The Z-score calculates the deviation from the mean in units of standard deviations: a Z-score of -2 indicates the price is two standard deviations below the mean, a rare event in a normal distribution, occurring approximately 2.3% of the time. In past cycles, bear market lows have typically corresponded to the -2 standard deviation line, occasionally hitting the -3 standard deviation line during moments of extreme panic, such as the 2022 FTX crash. Today, the -2 deviation value is near $64,000. The more extreme -3 deviation value hovers around $45,000. Like other indicators, these values ​​tend to rise over time, reflecting the asset's structural growth. Notably, even if Bitcoin plummets to an extreme statistical low tomorrow, it could still find support near or above $50,000. The convergence of these independent models reinforces the view that Bitcoin's "new normal" has shifted upwards. On-Chain Data: The Wisdom of Long-Term Holders One of Bitcoin's unique advantages as an asset is the ability to see the last time a Bitcoin was moved and the price at which it was transferred, through on-chain data. This transparency enables sophisticated metrics like the long-term holder (LTH) realized price. "Long-term holders" are defined as wallets that haven't spent their coins in at least 155 days (approximately 5 months). Historically, this group represents "smart money"—patient investors who accumulate during market weakness and sell during market strength. The LTH realized price represents the average cost basis of these holders.

In each of the previous cycles, the LTH realized price has acted as a solid floor. When the market price briefly dipped below this level, those moments marked excellent long-term buying opportunities.

Currently, the LTH realized price is around $37,000, having doubled over the past year. In previous cycles, during the late stages of bull markets, this figure increased 5-10 times from its starting level. Even if this cycle is milder, this trend suggests that LTH's realized price will soon climb above $50,000 and remain there. This also makes intuitive sense: as long-term holders set their cost basis higher and higher, the likelihood that the price will remain below that cost basis for an extended period decreases. Cycle Peaks and Retracements: Predicting the Worst-Case Scenario To test our current thesis, let's consider where the cycle top might be and then predict a worst-case scenario from there. One of my composite indicators, called the "Cycle Top Line," combines six different on-chain indicators that have historically marked Bitcoin's mania peaks. While no model is perfect, their combined average suggests that the top of this cycle could be around $211,000.

The consolidated moving average of these 6 indicators is currently around $211,000.

Now, the important part is: What happens next?

• Historically, in each previous bear market, Bitcoin has corrected 70%-80% from its all-time highs.

• Even if the intervention of institutional investors can mitigate the severity of future market corrections, it would be complacent to completely ignore this pattern.

Therefore,if the Bitcoin price peaks at $211,000 and then falls 75%, the implied bottom price is approximately $52,000. This is very close to the predictions of other models we've reviewed. However, while many are claiming "this time is different" due to the rise of Bitcoin ETFs and the growing number of companies holding Bitcoin, until this cyclical behavior is definitively broken, we must assume it will recur in a similar fashion. Regardless of your stance, the message is clear: even in a severe bear market, structural support suggests Bitcoin won't fall below $50,000 again. And the longer the bull market lasts, the higher the bottom will be, potentially into the $70,000-$80,000 range. This reframes my perspective: a 75% portfolio drawdown sounds bad, but it's still quite high when viewed from the perspective of higher peaks. Why Bottoms Are Easier to Predict Than Tops A paradox of Bitcoin analysis is that bottoms are easier to predict than tops.

• Market tops are driven by unpredictable factors: fear of missing out (FOMO), news cycles, liquidity shocks, and excessive speculation.

• However, support levels are determined by structural realities: the behavior of long-term holders, key moving averages, statistical baselines, and adoption curves.

This is why, in my opinion, estimating Bitcoin's bottom is often more practical than guessing at its top.

It's now clear that $50,000 isn't just a round number; it represents the confluence of multiple independent signals, all pointing to the same message: Bitcoin's structural bottom is permanently moving higher.

So, while market noise always tempts us to focus on the next price fluctuation, the more important fact is that Bitcoin prices below $50,000 are likely a thing of the past, not the future.