Author: @0xkyle Translator: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
As a trader, the core objective has always been to find investment opportunities with high certainty and asymmetric return potential. I'm passionate about uncovering these high-risk-reward trades, such as Solana at $20, Node Monkes at 0.1 BTC (which later rose to 0.9 BTC), Zerebro with a market capitalization of $20 million, and so on.
However, these asymmetric opportunities are becoming increasingly rare. There are many reasons for this, and they collectively constitute a large and thorny problem.

Taking this chart as an example, it shows Zerebro, which soared from a market capitalization of $20 million to a peak of $700 million, delivering a 30x return; however, it also fell 99% from its peak, almost returning to its initial starting point.
This leads to the first question: As we all know, most tokens in this industry "eventually need to be sold off." This creates a vicious cycle that hinders the creation of long-term appreciating assets. Over 90% of crypto assets are inherently speculative, but pure speculation is not a perpetual motion machine; when market participants lose interest or are unable to consistently profit, speculative demand subsides.
... User @0xaporia's tweet hit the nail on the head: The second problem is the structural flaws in the crypto market. The October 10th price spike fully exposed this: major exchanges almost universally caused losses for a large number of users, with over $40 billion in open interest evaporating instantly. This taught all participants their first lesson in finance: when there's a possibility of error, there will inevitably be. This risk deters institutions and large funds; if there's a risk of going to zero, why take the risk? The third and fourth problems have existed for a long time: first, the daily issuance of new tokens is excessive; second, the initial valuations of these tokens are too high. Every new project dilutes overall market liquidity, while high-valuation offerings squeeze profit margins for public market investors. Of course, you can choose to short sell, but if the entire industry relies on short selling for profit, it's definitely not a good thing in the long run. There are other issues not fully discussed, but the points mentioned above are the most noteworthy. Returning to the main topic: Why are asymmetric opportunities so hard to find in the current crypto market? The valuations of high-quality projects are too high, and prices have fully or even excessively reflected expectations. The proliferation of token issuance dilutes value; a perfect L1 token appears today, and another tomorrow, raising doubts about their authenticity. The industry's rapid iteration makes it difficult to establish long-term investment conviction; leading projects may lose their advantage within a year. Market structure problems hinder capital inflows; investors demand higher returns to compensate for the risk of going to zero. If actual returns are insufficient, the investment logic fails. Most fatally, most tokens are essentially just financing tools; token sales are used to raise funds for operations, while the real value is concentrated on equity. These tokens, lacking value accumulation and without company equity, are essentially speculative tools for a game of musical chairs, not genuine investments. These are not new viewpoints. Why am I repeating the same old ideas? Because despite widespread knowledge, no one has changed their investment approach. Everyone continues to chase new narratives, fawn over new trends, and repeat ineffective strategies. This is akin to the definition of madness: repeating the same actions but expecting different results. I always seek the next asymmetric opportunity. Following the rules only yields mediocre returns. I believe the next crypto asymmetric opportunity lies in: Mining revenue; Equity investment in blockchain companies; Exchange platform tokens; Finding severely undervalued assets—these do exist, but are extremely rare.