Will Bitcoin go to zero?

Bitcoin has fallen 30% from its all-time high, and gold prices have also retreated from their high of $4,200. According to the Financial Times, the Nasdaq Composite Index recorded its worst weekly performance since April 2025, with tech-heavy stocks suffering particularly heavy losses. When Bitcoin surged to $126,000, many were full of confidence, but now they are asking: "Will Bitcoin go to zero?" When "digital gold" and physical gold collapse in tandem, and when AI darlings stocks collectively plummet, are we witnessing a fundamental paradigm shift or just a spectacular technical correction? Does this prelude to a widespread crash in 2025 foreshadow a systemic deconstruction? The simultaneous decline of various assets (including investment tools that typically exhibit counter-cyclical characteristics) is highly unusual. This article will conduct an in-depth study to uncover the truth. Key conclusion: The 2025 crash is not merely an isolated narrative of Bitcoin or artificial intelligence; it is essentially a liquidity-driven systemic event. Market Anomalies and the Current State of Bitcoin Just a month ago, the CME FedWatch Tool showed a 93.7% probability of a federal funds rate cut; now it has plummeted to 44.9%. When investors collectively realize their misjudgment of the Fed's policy direction, they will simultaneously correct themselves. Interest rate cuts typically boost stock and alternative asset prices such as gold and digital assets by lowering borrowing costs and cash opportunity costs; however, when expectations fail to materialize, they can trigger a brutal reversal. Just like the reality of 2025. Meanwhile, talk of an AI bubble is rampant. A CBS News analyst points out, "The market realizes that if companies invest huge sums in data center construction, it will erode their profit potential." Data reveals a stark reality: Microsoft and Google announced combined AI infrastructure spending exceeding $250 billion for 2024-2025, but neither clearly quantified the related benefits in their earnings calls. Even more worrying is the widespread disconnect between promises and performance among enterprise software companies riding the AI ​​wave. Palantir's price-to-earnings ratio is as high as 180, but its customer acquisition costs have doubled year-on-year, a pattern strikingly similar to the dot-com bubble era. A recent McKinsey report shows that only 23% of companies applying generative AI have achieved quantifiable productivity improvements, yet these companies continue to increase their AI investments. While the commercial value of AI is widely discussed, its effectiveness is difficult to measure, and few companies disclose specific results. Even the FANG (Facebook, Amazon, Nvidia, Google) group faces challenges. Despite announcing revenue growth, Nvidia's stock price fell instead of rising, confirming that even excellent operations cannot withstand market inertia in the current volatile environment. It's worth noting that *The Register* disclosed Nvidia's plan to invest $100 million in OpenAI, while OpenAI plans to repurchase $100 million worth of Nvidia chips; this cyclical revenue model also failed to boost market confidence. The US dollar index has surged to a record high in the past three months, causing a sharp increase in the cost for international buyers to purchase assets such as gold and Bitcoin. Gold's traditional safe-haven properties have failed, and investors have not flocked to gold and other precious metals as expected. In a strong dollar environment, gold's defensive status has collapsed, failing to provide a safe haven. Bitcoin: Death Spiral or Growing Pains? Currently, Bitcoin's correlation with stocks is increasing, its hedging properties are failing, and the "digital gold" narrative is severely damaged. According to data from The Block, institutional investors have withdrawn $9 billion from Bitcoin ETFs. When the market needs Bitcoin to show independent movement, it is moving in tandem with tech stocks. In fact, gold, stocks, and long-term bonds have all outperformed Bitcoin. However, Bitcoin's history has always been marked by resilience, experiencing multiple deep drops and strong recoveries. What makes this situation special is that institutional investors, pension funds, corporations, and ETFs have collectively constructed a value foundation that never existed before, providing both a price floor and institutional legitimacy. Currently, downside protection demand in the $80,000 to $85,000 range has surged. The key question is no longer whether Bitcoin can survive, but how it can rise from its current predicament. Macroeconomic Implications for Bitcoin Investors: The 2025 crash reveals a fundamental shift in market mechanisms. The era of loose monetary policy is ending; true value is regaining attention. Investors are no longer chasing speculative narratives, but instead focusing on fundamentals—this applies to AI companies, Bitcoin traders, and the industry as a whole. The AI ​​bubble theory hasn't shaken the beliefs of some. Robert Metcalfe once said, "Bubbles are tools of innovation, capable of creating innovations that wouldn't otherwise occur." Sabujit Johar believes. "A bubble is a self-healing mechanism that allows a system to function as designed." However, the real problem now lies in the crisis of interconnectivity. Institutional investment has triggered new correlations between cryptocurrencies and traditional tech stocks. When the Nasdaq experienced its darkest week since April 2025, Bitcoin failed to act as a hedge and instead amplified the decline. In 2013, Bitcoin surged while tech stocks stagnated and gold crashed; in 2018, crypto assets were sold off while tech stocks rose; and in 2025, gold, Bitcoin, and AI stocks experienced their first simultaneous single-day pullback, a typical characteristic of a liquidity-driven market.

The next 90 days will determine the future

The most direct catalyst in the next three months isthe Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 18th.

If a rate cut is initiated, risk assets may see a year-end recovery. However, it is crucial to pay close attention to the policy guidance for 2026; any signal of maintaining high interest rates could trigger a new round of selling.

Bitcoin needs to pay attention to three key levels: $85,000 represents institutional support (the range of major ETF inflows). A drop below $75,000 indicates a new crisis. A break above $95,000 confirms the continuation of the bull market. These price levels will be tested in the next 4-6 weeks. AI stocks face a different timeline: the Q4 earnings season will be a litmus test. Companies must demonstrate strong returns on their AI investments, with a focus on Nvidia's guidance on data center demand and the AI ​​revenue disclosures from the FANG companies. If either falls short of expectations, it could trigger an industry-wide correction. Will Bitcoin really go to zero? The probability of Bitcoin going to zero is extremely low, but this crash foreshadows a more profound transformation. Bitcoin has evolved from a revolutionary, fringe asset into an institutionalized participant. The core issue now is no longer a survival crisis, but an identity crisis. When digital assets, which should remain uncorrelated, fluctuate in sync with the Nasdaq, how will their nature be restructured? This identity crisis is not a temporary phenomenon. Bitcoin's development path over the next decade depends on a fundamental choice: Continue to act as a macro-sensitive institutional asset? Or regain its independent attributes? Choosing the institutionalization path means that Bitcoin will be like a high-beta tech stock, driven by Federal Reserve policies and fund positions. Choosing a decentralized path requires different catalysts, including: Increased adoption of self-custody; increased adoption of Layer 2 networks; growth in on-chain stablecoin liquidity; and sustainable mining economic models. This generation of Bitcoin holders subscribes to the "digital gold" narrative, while the next generation will determine whether Bitcoin rekindles its revolutionary spirit or relegates itself to being just another asset in a diversified investment portfolio. The era of "everything skyrocketing" after 2020 has ended; now is the time for value to return to its true worth. Like life, the market often harbors profound transformations when everything seems to collapse simultaneously. Bitcoin, reborn from chaos, may exhibit a completely different form than in the past. And this may not necessarily be a bad thing.