Polymarket ICO Predictions Show Overestimated Success Rate

PANews posted on X (formerly Twitter). Polymarket's initial coin offering (ICO) predictions have been perceived as highly accurate. However, a retrospective analysis of key moments when outcomes were still uncertain reveals a different picture. Data from 231 prediction markets and nearly $250 million in trading volume indicate that the actual success rate is approximately 66%. Furthermore, the errors consistently lean towards an overly optimistic outlook.