UBS: Fed Rate-Cut Outlook Intact Despite Strong Jobs Data, but Urgency Has Eased

The Federal Reserve is still expected to cut interest rates later this year despite a stronger-than-expected January U.S. jobs report, though the urgency for near-term easing has diminished, according to UBS Global Wealth Management.In a recent report cited by Jin10, Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said ongoing evidence of cooling U.S. inflation should allow the Federal Reserve to stick to its planned easing path.UBS’s base case remains two 25-basis-point rate cuts, expected in June and September. Haefele said such a trajectory “would create a favorable environment for stocks, bonds, and gold,” even as recent data has prompted markets to reassess the timing.Market reprices rate-cut expectationsMoney market pricing has shifted following the January non-farm payrolls release. Data from the London Stock Exchange shows that investors have trimmed expectations for total Fed rate cuts in 2026 to about 50 basis points, down from roughly 60 basis points previously.Markets have also pushed back expectations for the next rate cut, moving the implied timing from June to July, reflecting reduced urgency for policy easing after signs of continued labor market resilience.Despite the adjustment, UBS said the broader disinflation trend remains intact, supporting its view that the Fed can still begin easing later this year, even if the path unfolds more gradually than previously anticipated.