Bitcoin Recovery Faces Headwinds as ETF Outflows and Whale Selling Weigh on Sentiment: Bitfinex Analysis

Bitcoin’s recent rebound has struggled to gain traction as exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows and strategic selling by large holders continue to pressure the market, according to a new report from Bitfinex.Rangebound Price Action Masks Broader DowntrendBitfinex analysts said Bitcoin has been trading within a short-term range of $65,000 to $70,000, but warned that the broader trend remains bearish. Since peaking last October, Bitcoin has undergone a correction of more than 52%, underscoring persistent structural weakness despite intermittent rebounds.While prices recovered roughly 20% from the Feb. 5 low, Bitcoin briefly slipped below the lower bound of its recent range this week, testing fresh local lows and reinforcing concerns that the recovery lacks durability.Macro Uncertainty and Tariff Ruling Add PressureMacroeconomic uncertainty has intensified following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling related to Trump-era tariff increases, which triggered renewed demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. In contrast, crypto markets have remained under pressure, with derivatives data showing traders continuing to pay a premium for downside protection.Bitfinex noted that the divergence highlights crypto’s ongoing sensitivity to macro shocks, particularly when liquidity conditions tighten and risk appetite shifts toward defensive assets.Whale Inflows Point to Strategic SellingOn-chain indicators suggest that recent selling pressure is being driven primarily by large holders rather than retail capitulation. The Exchange Whale Ratio shows that a disproportionate share of Bitcoin inflows to exchanges has originated from large wallets.“This pattern typically reflects strategic distribution rather than forced liquidations,” the report said, adding that whales may be selling at key structural levels or during specific daily time windows, signaling deliberate market positioning rather than panic-driven exits.Options Market Signals Caution, Not Risk-OnIn derivatives markets, Bitfinex observed that last week marked the first modest reduction in demand for downside protection. However, following renewed tariff-related headlines, traders did not meaningfully rebuild long exposure, instead adjusting positions only to hedge against extreme tail risks.Short-dated options data indicates that market sentiment remains cautious rather than optimistic, with participants prioritizing protection over directional bets.Recovery Still FragileTaken together, ETF outflows, concentrated whale selling, and defensive derivatives positioning suggest that Bitcoin’s recovery remains fragile. Bitfinex concluded that without a clear shift in macro conditions or a sustained improvement in flows and sentiment, upside momentum is likely to remain constrained in the near term.