PRECIOUS METALS | Citic Securities Predicts Long-Term Bullish Trend for Gold

On March 23, Citic Securities released a report indicating a crowded market for gold trading since August 2025, with a strong bullish sentiment prevailing. According to Jin10, the report previously forecasted a short-term rise in gold prices, predicting a peak in sentiment by the first quarter of 2026. In the medium to short term, the outlook is bearish due to the anticipated rise of black commodities following the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening, which could negatively impact gold's liquidity pricing. In the long term, Citic Securities maintains a bullish stance, citing the weakening of the U.S. dollar's position, particularly the technological support among its three pillars. The report also highlights the potential for a systemic pricing restructuring for gold as geopolitical tensions ease and the international status of the Chinese yuan rises. Reflecting on the current gold price trends, the report notes that the rise in oil prices was accelerated by the U.S.-Iran conflict rather than the inherent U.S. economic model, ultimately driven by fiscal measures leading to oil price normalization. Despite these developments, gold prices have remained within the framework outlined by Citic Securities.