U.S. Labor Market Shows Stability Amid Global Uncertainty

The U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that new applications for unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 last week, indicating a stable labor market in March with low layoff levels. According to Jin10, initial claims have fluctuated between 201,000 and 230,000 this year, aligning with economists' characterization of a 'low hiring, low layoff' environment. Economists attribute the labor market stagnation to the ongoing uncertainty caused by U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive import tariff policies. Additionally, the month-long conflict between the U.S. and Israel against Iran has added another layer of uncertainty for businesses. A Reuters survey of economists suggests that non-farm employment may rebound by approximately 60,000 jobs in March, though some warn that this rebound could be temporary due to the conflict-driven surge in global oil prices exceeding 50%. Nancy Vanden Houten, Chief U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics, stated, 'We expect the war to delay the labor market's anticipated moderate improvement this year, as uncertainty, slowing consumer spending, and rising costs lead businesses to pause hiring.'