Polymarket Predicts Shortened U.S. Homeland Security Shutdown

The probability of a U.S. Department of Homeland Security shutdown lasting more than 70 days has significantly decreased to 8%, according to Odaily. This marks a 45% drop in the past 24 hours, with the event contract's trading volume exceeding $1.27 million. The contract stipulates that if the shutdown, starting from February 14, 2026, lasts at least the number of days listed in the market, it will settle as 'Yes'; otherwise, it will settle as 'No'. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date a funding bill to restart the department is signed by the President or otherwise enacted, with mere announcements of a restart not being considered. U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced plans to sign an order to pay all employees of the Department of Homeland Security. He also expressed gratitude to House Speaker Johnson and Thune for their efforts this week and praised congressional Republicans for making progress on the Homeland Security issue.