Key Takeaways
US CPI rose 0.9% MoM, 3.3% YoY, slightly below expectations.Energy surge (gasoline +21%) remains the main inflation driver.Federal Reserve expected to hold rates in April (98.4%).Bitcoin briefly climbed toward $73K, with $80K target still in play.
Inflation Cools Slightly but Remains Elevated
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed March CPI rising:
+0.9% month-on-month+3.3% year-on-year
While the reading came in slightly below expectations, inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, keeping pressure on policymakers.
Energy Prices Drive Inflation Spike
The increase was largely driven by energy:
Energy index surged ~11%Gasoline prices jumped 21.2%
These gains reflect the impact of geopolitical tensions involving the US, Iran, and Israel, which continue to influence global oil markets.
Fed Still Expected to Hold Rates
Despite softer-than-expected CPI, markets see no imminent policy easing.
According to CME data:
98.4% probability of no rate change in April0% probability of a rate cut
The Federal Reserve remains cautious due to:
Persistent inflation risksGeopolitical uncertaintyPotential second-round inflation effects
Bitcoin Reacts Positively to CPI Data
Bitcoin rose over 1.5%, briefly testing the $73,000 level following the CPI release.
The move reflects:
Relief over no inflation surpriseContinued expectation of stable monetary policyOngoing institutional demand
$80K Remains Key Upside Target
Analysts point to the $73K–$75K range as the next resistance zone.
If Bitcoin clears this level:
Short-term consolidation may followA move toward $80,000 becomes increasingly likely
Some projections suggest that favorable regulatory developments could push BTC toward $100K longer-term, though macro conditions remain a key variable.
Stable Policy, Volatile Macro
Markets are entering a delicate phase:
Inflation remains elevated but not accelerating sharplyFed policy is stable but not easingGeopolitical risks continue to drive energy prices
For crypto, this means:
Short-term support from stable ratesMedium-term uncertainty from macro factors
Bitcoin’s next move will likely depend on whether it can break resistance and sustain momentum amid a still-fragile macro environment.