Global Oil Stocks Deplete Amid Persian Gulf Transport Disruptions

Global oil inventories are being consumed at a record pace due to disruptions in Persian Gulf oil transport caused by the Iran conflict. According to Odaily, this depletion is eroding buffer stocks originally intended to mitigate supply shocks, increasing the risk of extreme price surges and shortages. With the Strait of Hormuz nearly closed for two months, options for governments and industries to counter the impact of over 1 billion barrels of lost supply are dwindling. The rapid consumption of inventories suggests that even after the conflict ends, the market will remain vulnerable to future supply interruptions for an extended period. Morgan Stanley estimates that between March 1 and April 25, global oil inventories decreased by approximately 4.8 million barrels per day, significantly surpassing previous quarterly inventory reduction peaks compiled by the International Energy Agency. Crude oil accounts for nearly 60% of this reduction, with the remainder being refined products. It is crucial for the oil system to establish a minimum inventory level. Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan, indicates that this means reaching the untouchable portion of safety stocks before inventories truly bottom out.