According to CryptoPotato, Real Vision Group CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal has predicted that macro and crypto summer has already begun, as part of his 'Everything Code' thesis. Pal's thesis explains market movements due to macroeconomic influences, driven by liquidity, which he believes bottomed at the end of 2022. He stated that 'macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising,' and liquidity should rise 'all the way into the end of 2025.'
During this period, assets such as tech stocks and cryptocurrencies are expected to perform well. Pal noted that 'crypto summer has started and fully develops post-halving... it's all the same 'Everything Code' cycle.' He added that the 'bigger game' is the altseason or 'Banana Zone,' presumably in reference to the massive gains and parabolic price charts for some altcoins. Pal's 'Everything Code' thesis argues that today's asset prices are primarily driven by central bank monetary policies and debt levels rather than traditional company fundamentals or economic growth.
High government debt levels globally require central banks to print money via quantitative easing (QE) to make interest payments, creating a cycle where more QE is needed every 3-4 years as debt rolls over. This leads to the debasing of fiat currency, causing asset prices to be bid up, irrespective of company performance or valuations. Tech and crypto usually outperform in this environment as their growth potential offsets the debasing effects of QE. Pal also argues that central banks are trapped in this 'Everything Code' by larger demographic forces like slowing population growth, which reduces GDP growth and increases QE requirements to service escalating debts. Bitcoin still dominates the market with a share of 53.4%, according to TradingView, and only when this dips back to the mid-40% level, as it did during the last cycle, will the altseason really be in full swing.