August Nonfarm Payroll Reports Often Fall Below Expectations, Analyst Notes

According to Odaily, Forexlive analyst Adam Button has highlighted a recurring seasonal anomaly in the U.S. nonfarm payroll reports for August. Over the past 23 years, the initial data for August has fallen short of expectations in 17 instances. This trend suggests a 70% likelihood of the data being lower than anticipated before revisions. Button notes that despite the past two years showing figures slightly above expectations by 15,000 and 17,000 respectively, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics may be improving its seasonal adjustment methods. Another point of interest is the disappointing July employment report, which may have been negatively impacted by Hurricane Beryl. This could potentially lead to a rebound in the August figures. The pattern of lower-than-expected initial reports in August has been a notable trend for over two decades, indicating a significant seasonal adjustment challenge for the labor statistics bureau.