Elon Musk Predicts Humanoid Robots Will Outnumber Humans By 2040

According to Decrypt, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has predicted that humanoid robots will outnumber humans by the year 2040. Musk made this statement during the annual Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He suggested that every country will have multiple AIs and a significant number of robots, surpassing the human population, which currently stands at around 8.2 billion according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s World Population Clock. Musk has previously discussed the potential impact of humanoid robots and advanced AI on humanity, even suggesting that humans might face a 'crisis of meaning.' He emphasized that with intelligent humanoid robots, there would be no limit to economic growth. However, experts like Gary Marcus, a cognitive scientist and AI researcher, disagree with Musk's optimistic timeline. Marcus pointed out that Musk has a history of overestimating AI advancements. He compared the potential adoption of humanoid robots to car ownership, noting that many people cannot afford or do not need a car, and the same will likely apply to robots. Marcus also highlighted the significant economic and safety concerns, as well as the software and hardware challenges that need to be addressed before humanoid robots can be widely adopted. He cited the example of Roomba, the best-selling consumer robot, which has sold around 50 million units at a few hundred dollars each. Marcus argued that it is unrealistic to expect the sale of 200 times as many humanoid robots in the near term, especially when there is no existing model that is safe, reliable, and generally useful at any price. Despite Musk's promises of affordable robots, with long-term cost projections of around $20,000 to $30,000 each, Marcus remains skeptical. He criticized the overhyped claims about AI, including those from companies like OpenAI, which he accused of not delivering on their promises despite high valuations. Marcus's skepticism underscores the challenges and uncertainties surrounding the future of humanoid robots and their integration into society.