RBC Forecasts No Fed Rate Cut in January, Interest Rates Likely to Stay Flat in 2025

The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) has projected that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in January, maintaining the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.5% throughout 2025.Key Factors Behind the PredictionInflation Trends:December's CPI growth is expected to edge up to 2.8%, slightly higher than November’s 2.7%, as the decline in gasoline prices narrows.Core CPI growth is anticipated to slow to 0.2% month-on-month due to moderated increases in rent and other core service prices.Strong Economic Data:Recent data, including last Friday’s non-farm payrolls, has outperformed expectations, signaling resilience in the U.S. economy.Policy ImplicationsDespite slowing inflation, the robust economic backdrop suggests that the Fed will adopt a cautious approach, holding rates steady to balance inflationary pressures with sustained economic growth. This aligns with RBC’s forecast that no further rate adjustments are likely through 2025.