Top Interest of the WeekDespite the overall decline in the cryptocurrency market, some digital currencies are experiencing notable price surges. One such example is Alchemy Pay’s $ACH token. Recently, Alchemy Pay obtained an Electronic Financial Business registration in South Korea, building on its prior approval from the Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (AUSTRAC), which oversees compliance with anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorism financing (CTF) regulations. This advancement in Alchemy Pay's real-world payment solution has captured the interest of investors, leading to a significant increase in its price accompanied by higher trading volumes.Official Trump ($TRUMP) has attracted significant interest within the trading community following its recent launch in the South Korean cryptocurrency markets. Additionally, the enthusiasm for $TRUMP has been heightened by favorable remarks from Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX. This has resulted in a surge in trading volumes and price fluctuations as traders respond to the developments and speculate on the token's potential trajectory.Mantra ($OM) has surpassed market performance with a remarkable 32.2% increase last week. Recognized as a frontrunner in the Real World Assets (RWA) sector, Mantra has revealed its collaboration with the DAMAC Group, a prominent real estate company in the UAE, to tokenize a $1 billion portfolio that encompasses high-end properties and business investments. This project, scheduled to launch in early 2025, seeks to improve investment accessibility and market liquidity by transforming physical assets into digital tokens, thereby facilitating trading in a more efficient manner than conventional real estate methods.Overall MarketSource: TradingViewThe above chart is the BTC price in the daily candle chart at the log scale.In our previous update, our OTC desk provided an analysis of the projected trajectory for Bitcoin ($BTC). We emphasized the importance of rekindling bullish momentum for BTC to surpass the $100,000 threshold. Our team has been closely monitoring the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and other indicators to identify market direction signals.However, last week, BTC traded within a historically tight range, reflecting low volatility. While the S&P 500 index, representing the US stock market, reached new all-time highs, cryptocurrencies remained in a state of stagnation, awaiting a clear direction. On Tuesday, BTC's price fell below $93,500 during the US trading session, largely influenced by the underperformance of Solana ($SOL). The Solana network experienced a notable drop in on-chain activity following the LIBRA scandal involving Argentina's President, Javier Milei. Additionally, market sentiment around SOL turned negative due to a significant unlock scheduled for March. The annualized inflation rate for Solana rose 30.5%, from 3.6% to “4.7%, after the introduction of Solana Improvement Document 96 (SIMD 96). SIMD 96 proposed utilizing the total priority fees for network validators instead of burning half. As a result, the daily SOL burn rate decreased dramatically from nearly 18,000 SOL to just 1,000 SOL.Despite the downward pressure from Solana, Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience, managing to close above the $95,000 mark on the daily chart. Moreover, we have noticed a divergence between BTC's price and the RSI indicator, suggesting the possibility of upward momentum. With more US states embracing the Bitcoin reserve concept—Montana recently becoming the fourth state to advance a Bitcoin reserve bill to the House—we believe BTC's consolidation phase is approaching its end.We anticipate that BTC will soon reclaim the crucial $100k level and explore additional upside potential. Our outlook for BTC remains optimistic, and we continue to believe that the peak of this cycle will be reached by the end of March.Options MarketThe above table is the 25-delta skew on BTC and ETH options.The 25-delta skew is a crucial indicator in the options market, reflecting the pricing dynamics between call and put options. Currently, this skew reveals that BTC call options are consistently traded higher than their put options across all expiration dates. This trend is particularly pronounced for longer-term options, where the premiums for calls are significantly elevated. Such pricing behavior suggests that options traders are exhibiting a strong preference for calls, indicating a collective belief in the potential for BTC's price to rise. This inclination to purchase calls over puts implies that traders are more focused on capitalizing on upward price movements rather than seeking protection against potential declines.In our previous update, we highlighted that the implied volatility for BTC options has been hovering at historically low levels. This low-volatility environment presents unique opportunities for traders to long Vol, particularly those employing strategies like long straddles or strangles. In these strategies, traders buy both puts and calls simultaneously, positioning themselves to profit from any significant price movement, regardless of direction. The rationale behind this approach is that as volatility increases, the value of both options can rise, allowing traders to benefit from the market's fluctuations. Our team has specifically recommended a long BTC straddle paired with a short Ethereum (ETH) straddle. This strategy aims to exploit the volatility premium present in the BTC options market while simultaneously hedging against potential movements in ETH, with the assumption that the ETH/BTC pair remains stable.The prevailing bullish sentiment in the options market, coupled with the observed divergence in the BTC spot market as mentioned in the above section, leads our team to believe that bullish momentum for BTC is indeed gaining traction. This sentiment is further reinforced by the anticipation that once BTC surpasses the critical psychological barrier of $100,000, it could trigger a wave of buying interest and positive sentiment among investors. Such a breakthrough could not only validate the bullish outlook but also attract new participants to the market, potentially accelerating BTC's upward trajectory. As we continue to monitor these developments, we remain optimistic about the prospects for BTC, particularly in light of the current market dynamics and trader sentiment.Macro at a glance Last Thursday (25-02-13)Initial jobless claims in the US were reported at 213,000, which is below the anticipated figure of 217,000.In January, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a monthly increase of 0.4%, surpassing the expected 0.3% but down from December's 0.5% rise. This PPI data indicates that inflation in the US remains above the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2%, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance regarding interest rate decisions.Last Friday (25-02-14)The Eurozone is anticipated to experience a GDP growth rate of 0.9% annually in the fourth quarter of 2024, aligning with market expectations.In January, US retail sales decreased by 0.9% monthly, following a 0.7% increase in December. This figure was below the anticipated decline of 0.2%. Additionally, core retail sales fell by 0.4% month over month after a 0.7% rise in the previous month.The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has revised its forecast for GDP growth in the first quarter to 2.3%, down from an earlier estimate of 2.9%.On Monday (25-02-17)Japan's GDP is anticipated to grow at an annual rate of 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024, significantly surpassing the economists' predicted growth of 1.0%.On Tuesday (25-02-18)The Reserve Bank of Australia has reduced its interest rate by 0.25% to 4.10%, marking the first decrease since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. Nevertheless, the bank cautioned that it is premature to consider inflation under control and expressed caution regarding the potential for additional rate reductions.In the UK, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded an annual growth rate of 3.0% in January, re-accelerating from 2.5% in December.On Wednesday (25-02-19)Federal Reserve officials indicated in January that a further reduction in interest rates would only be considered if inflation showed a significant decline. As noted in the meeting minutes, they also voiced apprehensions regarding the potential effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on achieving this goal.Convert Portal Volume ChangeThe above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone. Last week, Bitcoin (BTC) continued to fluctuate within a historically narrow range, searching for a clear direction. The overall trading activity in the cryptocurrency market was subdued, reflecting a lack of compelling narratives, although there was notable interest in small-cap altcoins.In the Fan Token market, trading volume experienced a remarkable increase of 260.3% last week, primarily fueled by the strong performance of Juventus Fan Token ($JUV), which achieved a 33% gain in the past seven days.In the Polkadot ecosystem, trading volume rose by 72.1% last week, with Heima ($HEI) significantly contributing to this increase.In the Monitoring sector, trading volume grew by 59.5% last week, largely driven by heightened demand for ARK ($ARK) and TROY ($TROY).Why trade OTC? Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. Email:
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