Ethereum News: Will Ethereum Price Bottom at $1,600? Onchain Data Signals Further Downside

Key Takeaways:ETH price dropped below $2,000, marking its lowest point since December 2023.Ethereum holders are carrying an average unrealized loss of 7%, as the MVRV ratio hit 0.93.Onchain data suggests ETH could find support at $1,900 but risks dropping to $1,600.Ethereum’s total value locked (TVL) has fallen to a six-month low of $45.6 billion, down 41% from its peak in December 2024.Ethereum Dips Below Realized Price After Two YearsEthereum's recent price drop below $2,000 has onchain implications, with the asset currently trading near $1,880. According to Glassnode, this marks the first time since February 2023 that ETH has fallen below its realized price of $2,054—the average cost basis of all ETH holders.As a result, Ethereum’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has fallen to 0.93, meaning that ETH holders are, on average, at a 7% unrealized loss. Historically, a sub-1.0 MVRV ratio has signaled capitulation, often preceding a strong accumulation phase before a price reversal.Ethereum’s TVL and Network Engagement DecliningEthereum’s total value locked (TVL) has plunged to $45.6 billion, a 41% decline from its $77 billion peak on December 17, 2024. The drop in TVL suggests a decline in DeFi activity, with fewer assets locked across Ethereum-based protocols.Adding to the bearish sentiment, Ethereum’s transaction fees have dropped to $46.28 million, the lowest level since July 2020. This decline indicates reduced demand for network usage, reinforcing a weaker onchain ecosystem.Ethereum’s Potential Bottom: $1,600 or a Recovery at $1,900?Glassnode’s recent cost-basis distribution analysis identified $1,900 as a key accumulation zone, where approximately 600,000–700,000 ETH has been absorbed by buyers."This suggests $1.9K could establish itself as a support if ETH consolidates at current levels," Glassnode noted.However, a major supply gap between $1,900 and $2,200 makes a sharp move in either direction possible. If ETH fails to hold $1,900 as support, analysts warn that the next strong demand zone is around $1,600—a 15% downside risk from current levels. Final Outlook: Key Levels to WatchSupport Levels: $1,900 (short-term), $1,600 (if bearish trend continues).Resistance Levels: $2,200 (thin supply zone), $2,400 (strong resistance).Ethereum’s price action remains highly volatile, with weak network fundamentals adding pressure. If bulls fail to reclaim $2,000 soon, a drop toward $1,600 remains on the table before a potential recovery.