XRP Faces Potential Correction Amid Bearish Patterns and Market Sentiment

According to Cointelegraph, XRP has experienced a notable rebound of nearly 30% after hitting a four-month low of $1.61, driven by rising tariff tensions. However, this recovery may be short-lived as technical patterns and on-chain signals suggest a deeper correction could be imminent. The cryptocurrency is currently forming a classic bearish reversal pattern known as the inverse cup-and-handle (IC&H), which could result in a price drop of at least 40% in the coming weeks. This pattern typically emerges when the price rounds off in a curved descent, followed by a brief consolidation phase, all atop a common neckline support level. As of April 19, XRP has entered the handle-formation phase, with a potential decisive close below the neckline support at around $2. If this occurs, the primary downside target is likely to be around $1.24, which is almost 40% below current prices. This target aligns with XRP’s 200-3D exponential moving average (EMA) at approximately $1.28, coinciding with a November 2024 peak. Additionally, veteran trader Peter Brandt has indicated that XRP’s market cap could decrease by 50% in the coming weeks. The inverse cup-and-handle pattern is unfolding in line with XRP’s historical price behavior, signaling that its 2025 rally may have reached its peak. In previous cycles, the cryptocurrency experienced sharp pullbacks to its aggregated realized price following major surges, notably in 2018 and 2021. The realized price serves as a psychological benchmark for traders, representing the average price at which the XRP supply was last moved. When the market price trades significantly above this level, most holders are in profit, which can lead to complacency or profit-taking. Conversely, if the price approaches the realized price, fear of losses tends to rise, intensifying selling pressure. In 2025, XRP surged past $3.20 before losing momentum, repeating patterns seen in past bull-to-bear cycles. The current realized price is around $1, a likely downside target in 2025, approximately 50% below current prices. Interestingly, XRP’s $1 realized price target is closer to its 200-week EMA at $0.81, a bear market target discussed in Cointelegraph’s analysis in late March. Adding to the bearish outlook, over 80% of XRP addresses are currently in profit, a metric that historically reached similar levels during previous market tops, often preceding significant rounds of profit-taking and pullbacks. If history repeats, these conditions could incentivize traders to exit positions, accelerating XRP’s retracement toward the realized price. Sentiment around XRP reaching a new all-time high above the $3.55 level is deteriorating, according to prediction market data from Polymarket. As of April 19, the odds of XRP achieving this milestone before 2026 have dropped to just 35%, marking a sharp 25% decline from peak confidence levels in March. The upside momentum in the crypto market has faded overall in April, coinciding with a broader decline in risk appetite driven by escalating global tariff tensions under U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.