U.S. Economic Concerns Rise Ahead of April Jobs Report

According to BlockBeats, economists worldwide are closely monitoring the upcoming release of the U.S. April non-farm payroll report, scheduled for Friday. Concerns are mounting over potential disruptions in the U.S. labor market due to the tariff policies initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump, which could significantly increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing its first interest rate cut of the year in June. Apollo Global Management, a leading Wall Street asset management firm, has warned that the escalation of global trade tensions and the imposition of a 145% tariff on other countries in early April may lead to negative job growth and a spike in the unemployment rate to 4.5%, compared to the expected 4.2%. During the survey period from April 7 to 13, the effective U.S. tariff rate reached 23%, the highest since 1900, causing a collapse in both business confidence and consumer expectations. The anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut is rapidly intensifying. Board member Waller, a 2024 voting member, stated that layoffs due to tariffs would support a rate cut, while Cleveland Fed President Mester, a 2026 voting member, hinted at action if June data meets expectations. Goldman Sachs models indicate that high-frequency indicators like initial jobless claims, currently at 222,000, and the ISM services index are signaling a recession. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 12.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in June. Despite the current resilience of the labor market, with March non-farm payrolls adding 228,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations, the delayed impact of tariffs is beginning to manifest. New orders for businesses have sharply declined, capital expenditure plans are frozen, and inventory levels have reached historic peaks. Consumers are preemptively spending to avoid price hikes. A Bloomberg survey reveals that economists have raised the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months from 30% to 45%, with JPMorgan and BCA Research warning of a probability exceeding 50%. Apollo's model suggests that tariff-induced supply chain disruptions could trigger a recession by summer 2025, making the non-farm payroll data a critical turning point in the "rate cut-economic hard landing" logic chain.