XRP ETF Approval Anticipation Drives Market Activity

According to Cointelegraph, the potential approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States has sparked significant interest in the cryptocurrency market. Bloomberg analysts have assigned a 95% probability for the ETF's approval, with a decision from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) expected in October. This speculation has influenced XRP's price movements, which faced rejection after reaching $3.04, its highest level in nearly two weeks. The anticipation of increased institutional participation in XRP derivatives has raised expectations that XRP might revisit the $3.60 level seen in July. Demand for XRP futures has seen a notable increase, climbing 5% from the previous month to reach a total of XRP 2.69 billion, equivalent to $7.91 billion at current prices. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reported a 74% jump in the number of outstanding XRP futures contracts, reaching XRP 386 million. This surge highlights stronger participation from professional fund managers and market makers. While higher futures activity generally indicates interest, the balance between long and short positions remains stable. XRP monthly futures currently trade at a 7% premium, suggesting leverage demand is balanced, consistent with recent patterns. However, XRP's performance has lagged behind the broader altcoin market, which advanced 14% since August. The anticipation surrounding the XRP ETF approval has been central to its recent price performance. Bloomberg analysts estimate a 90% or higher chance of approval, although the SEC's final decision is expected in late October. Meanwhile, Ripple's stablecoin RLUSD has crossed the $700 million mark in assets, drawing attention despite nearly 90% of its supply being issued on the Ethereum network. This has created little direct demand for the XRP Ledger, as the stablecoin market remains dominated by established issuers with deeper liquidity, such as Circle's USYC and World Liberty's USD1. Despite some investors' expectations for XRPL to evolve into a primary facilitator of international payments or expand its role in tokenization, data from RWA.xyz indicates that XRPL accounts for only 2% of outstanding Real World Assets, trailing smaller blockchains like Avalanche, Stellar, and Aptos. While XRP's advance to $3.60 cannot be ruled out, considering XRPL's modest $100 million in total value locked (TVL), the odds of sustaining such momentum appear limited. This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be legal or investment advice.