Gold Pricing Influenced by Marginal Demand, Report Suggests

According to PANews, a research report from CITIC Securities indicates that marginal demand is increasingly significant in explaining gold pricing. Returning to traditional supply and demand logic, the report notes that gold supply remains relatively stable, with annual production consistently around 3,600 tons. Therefore, the true pricing variable for gold lies in demand, particularly marginal demand. Gold demand primarily consists of three components: private sector consumption, private sector investment, and official gold purchases. Historically, marginal demand for gold has been largely driven by European and American ETF demand, which is mainly from overseas institutional investors. This demand framework is heavily influenced by the real interest rates of U.S. Treasury bonds. The private sector investment demand in Europe and America, including ETF demand, continues to show a strong correlation with U.S. Treasury real interest rates. As U.S. inflation declines and labor market resilience decreases, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in the second half of the year are rising. The initiation of rate cuts, leading to decreases in nominal and real interest rates, is expected to inject new momentum into gold price increases.