这两天在日本。听闻日本有家神奇AI公司 alt.ai，去年风光上市，号称能做出高同步率“数字人分身”。
结果不到一年爆雷了。把表打开一看，销售额水分满满。创始人神龙见首不见尾，真人从来没露过面，只用数字分身和记者聊了三次。
看来 AI 真是全人类的大事， 就连“熟悉的配方”也不分国界。
为什么说AI叙事逐渐离谱？因为有两个剧情，以正常人的理解能力，已经越来越看不懂了：
这边厢OpenAI建“星际之门”千亿万亿；那边厢Meta 要把数据中心修到跟曼哈顿差不多大。卖铲子的英伟达给挖矿的OpenAI投钱修矿洞，矿工挖得越猛，铲子卖得越好。
资本市场一掏就是天文数字，恨不得把地球上的电都给模型用上。
但一切都是有代价的，你并不知道背后牺牲了什么。当天文数字屡创新高，市场心里小鼓就打起来：这些钱花得到底值不值？
当模型越堆越大，账单越刷越厚，估值高出天际，泡沫味也越来越重：当融资一轮又一轮，且开始出现一些来路不明的玩家，配方也越来越熟悉。
如果按贝恩的测算，这波AI基建要在2030年前每年产出2万亿美元营收才算值回票价——相当于“六大只”（苹果、亚马逊、谷歌、微软、Meta、英伟达）2024营收之和。
但现在有多少人盈利了呢？
OpenAI今年签了1万亿美元的合同，但营收只有约120亿美元。但没关系，大家可以排排坐，把钱包打开，互相给钱，这样看起来都在赚钱呢。
英伟达投1000亿美元给OpenAI建AI基础设施，OpenAI再用这钱去买英伟达的芯片；xAI从英伟达拿钱，再去买英伟达的处理器；OpenAI几年内从 AMD 买60亿瓦（6 gigawatts) 芯片，再用极低作价买AMD股票。
如果把“你付我，我付你”的部分去掉，真正赚的钱从哪儿来呢？
目前只有订阅费（理论上数据中心算力也是收入来源，但折旧实在太快了，只有2-3 年）。如果只靠订阅收入，那愿意花钱用AI 的人要比现在多得多，达到全球订阅软件市场的5倍多才能收支平衡。这个“小目标”太难了，付费意愿早就饱和，token 补贴已经不能再卷。
那该怎么办呢？要不参考一下币圈？上次 DeFi summer热钱退潮前的最后一集是“社区和社交”，Web3实用性塌方后转“元宇宙”营销。
感觉可以试试看——于是OpenAI的AI版TikTok Sora 来了，Meta的Vibes也来了，万物皆流量，万物皆广告。也许这就是大招。
记得某期播客中和Will老师提到过一个暴论：代际泡沫轮回轮：两个相似的代际事件之间的间隔是 25 年左右。2025-25=2000 年。当年发生了什么？
当然，AI 怎么能和当年的互联网做对比呢？我也不敢这么比，会被当成傻子（虽然不知道为什么）。所以现在大部分玩家还是处于“宁可错杀，不可漏网”的心态，谁敢错过世纪一遇的机会？
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