Cobo's Discus Fish: Ethereum Spot ETF to Start Trading as Early as Mid-June, Institutional Entry by Early 2025

Yesterday (24th), the cryptocurrency market received another significant update. At around 5 a.m., the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally approved the 19b-4 filings (exchange rule changes) submitted by eight Ethereum spot ETF issuers, bringing us one step closer to the launch of the first Ethereum spot ETF.

However, it is important to note that after the 19b-4 filings are approved, the issuers still need to wait for the SEC to approve their S-1 registration statements before they can officially start trading. The SEC has only recently begun discussing these S-1 documents with the issuers. It is still unclear how long this process will take, but some analysts speculate it could take several weeks.

Discus Fish's Prediction on Ethereum Spot ETF Timeline: Against this backdrop, Discus Fish (also known as Shenyu), the founder of Bitcoin mining pool F2Pool and digital asset custody solution provider Cobo, posted on social platform X yesterday, predicting that based on the approval timeline for the Bitcoin spot ETF and the currently available market information, the possible timeline for the Ethereum spot ETF listing is as follows:

• 5/23: ETH 19b-4 unexpectedly approved, market makers begin purchasing ETH spot to prepare for liquidity provision.
• Early June: S-1 filing might be approved; referencing the BTC ETF timeline, the fastest approval could take two weeks, but it could normally take three months.
• Mid-June: Upon S-1 approval, trading might begin immediately or within a few days.
• June to December: In the initial listing phase, most capital inflows are likely from retail investors, accounting for 80%~90% of total funds, with limited institutional participation. Considering that ETHE is similar to GBTC, the market may face some arbitrage selling pressure, and it remains to be seen whether it can withstand this selling pressure.
• Post-December: Over time, institutional investors will gradually enter the market.

Bloomberg Analysts: Mid-June Definitely Possible: Discus Fish’s views are similar to those of Bloomberg analyst James Seyffar, who also stated yesterday:

“It is important to note that the SEC’s approval of the 19b-4 filings does not mean trading can start tomorrow. They still need to review the S-1 filings, which takes time. We expect this process to take several weeks, if not longer.”

However, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas is more confident that results will be seen by mid-June:

“I guess the S-1 review will only go through one round. During the Bitcoin spot ETF review, one round of comments took two weeks, so it is definitely possible by June this year.”

Standard Chartered Bank: Ethereum Could Reach $8,000 by Year-End: In addition to predicting the official listing timeline of the Ethereum spot ETF, analysts have also made bold forecasts regarding ETH prices. For example, Geoff Kendrick, Head of Forex and Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicted on the 21st that the approval of the Ethereum ETF will bring in substantial capital flows:

“We estimate that the Ethereum spot ETF will bring in 2.39 million to 9.15 million ETH in the first 12 months post-approval... In USD terms, this is approximately $15 billion to $45 billion.”

Kendrick also expects that by 2024, the price ratio between Ether and Bitcoin will remain at 5.4%. If BTC reaches $150,000 by the end of the year, the price of Ether could reach $8,000.

“Given our current prediction that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of 2024, this means that Ether’s price will reach $8,000.”