The upcoming inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump has sparked a flurry of betting activity on the Polymarket platform, with users wagering a combined total of $876,000 on the likelihood of Trump mentioning specific crypto-related terms.
The most prominent bets centre around whether Trump will mention "crypto" or "bitcoin," as well as "doge" or "dogecoin" during his speech on 20 January 2025.
The largest portion of the betting pool is directed at the prediction that Trump will mention the terms "crypto" or "bitcoin" in his inaugural address.
Polymarket users have placed nearly $535,000 on this outcome, which they believe has a 17% chance of occurring.
Given the growing importance of cryptocurrency in mainstream discourse, such bets have captured the interest of both political and financial enthusiasts eager to see if these digital assets will make an appearance in a speech of such global significance.
Another sizable portion of the bets is focused on the mention of "doge" or "dogecoin," with $327,000 in total bets.
This prediction is slightly less favoured, with odds of just 12%.
Dogecoin, a meme-based cryptocurrency that has gained notable traction over recent years, continues to be a topic of fascination, especially among investors and enthusiasts who believe it could be included in a presidential address as a symbol of the changing landscape of finance and technology.
The heavy focus on Trump’s speech has pushed the overall trading volume on Polymarket to over $1.89 million as of 14 January 2025.
This figure highlights the growing interest in predicting political events through decentralized platforms, which allow users to speculate on everything from economic policies to individual phrases.
As the inauguration draws closer, more predictions are expected to flood the market.
This isn’t the first time Polymarket has been the go-to platform for speculation on what Trump will say.
During the 2024 presidential election, similar markets emerged, allowing users to bet on various public statements, including those made during campaign rallies and debates.
Even the possibility of Trump engaging in conversations with high-profile figures like Elon Musk was predicted by Polymarket users, further proving the platform’s growing role in forecasting political events.
Despite the surge in January, Polymarket experienced a slowdown in trading activity in December 2024, with overall trading volume dropping by 26.6% compared to the previous month.
The platform recorded $1.93 billion in total volume for December, but analysts suggest that market fluctuations and shifting global conditions may have contributed to this decline.
In Singapore, the Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) recently ordered local internet service providers to block access to the platform, citing illegal gambling and unlicensed service provision.
Users who engage with unlicensed gambling platforms face fines of up to SGD 10,000 ($7,200) or potential imprisonment.
Taiwan was the first to actively block its nationals from using Polymarket, with 17 individuals arrested for betting on the island’s presidential election, which is prohibited under local law.
Polymarket has also been targeted by French gaming authorities, who have blocked access to the platform within the country.
In the United States, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) subpoenaed Coinbase to gather information about U.S. nationals using Polymarket, as part of an ongoing investigation into the platform’s activities.
As of 14 January 2025, Bitcoin is trading at $94,886.29, while Dogecoin sits at $0.3432.
These price levels continue to keep both cryptocurrencies at the forefront of financial discussions, especially in light of the high-profile speculation surrounding Trump’s inaugural speech.
Traders are closely watching how the market reacts to political events, as such occasions often have far-reaching implications for the future of digital currencies.
The results of Polymarket’s crypto-related bets could not only test the accuracy of political predictions but also shape public perception of cryptocurrencies in the years ahead.
As the inauguration approaches, attention is shifting to whether cryptocurrency will be mentioned during this key moment in American history.
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