撰文：WOO
币安创办人赵长鹏 CZ 因违反美国反洗钱法，在今年 4 月 30 日美国西雅图地方法院遭判处 4 个月的监禁，原先检方要求 36 个月刑期，但因法庭收到 161 封来自朋友和家人的支持信，这些信件强调了他在家庭和事业上的良好形象，对法官的判决产生了正面影响。法官认为虽然 CZ 在反洗钱上存在失误，但他并未故意参与非法活动，因此最终决定轻判四个月。
随着时间推移，CZ 预计将在 2024 年 9 月 29 日刑满释放，届时在迷因市场中势必又掀起一股相关概念炒作，撇开未来新币炒作预期不谈，那么身为龙头交易所的币安在 CZ 坐牢的期间都上线了哪些币种？当中又有什么规律？币价表现又是如何？最重要的是：在新上线代币中，币安想传达什么样的市场资讯？ WOO X 研究院带你一探究竟。
根据上述资料可以得出以下事实：
上线币种频繁，以合约为主：共上线 38 个币种，当中从 RARE 合约上线以后，币安更加积极上币，大多是原本已有现货的币种上线合约，频率几乎达到一天一币，更在 9/16 一次上线三个迷因合约 (Neiro、Babydoge、Turbo)
打破低流通，高 FDV 印象：除新币 (IO、ZRO、BB、LISTA) 外，上线币种流通率皆在 40% 以上，普遍到达 70%~100%
市场环境差：大部分新币上线后都经历了不同程度的下跌，但也有少数表现亮眼，例如 UXLINK 上涨了 56%，整体而言并未为用户带来财富效应。
在这四个月当中，比特币价格持续萎靡，币价在 56000~60000 来回跳动，与此同时 BTC.D 却是上涨 20%，高达 58%，也意味着在这段期间多数山寨币表现极差，整体市场流动性枯竭。
目前整体市场缺乏流动性，叙事失效，市场氛围低迷悲观。在过往经验当中，每当币安上线币种，无论是现货或是合约，皆能带动整体市场乐观情绪。币安自上线 RARE 合约以来，加大上币频率，即使币种多为没人在乎的「老币」，可以解读币安试图为市场注射一次又一次的「救命针」，尝试为一摊死水的市场激起一丝波澜。
而历经一个多月的尝试，明显只能达到「短暂兴奋」的功用，大多数仍是 Pump and Dump，且生命周期极短，随后币安更是罕见的上线大写 NEIRO 合约，遭受社群质疑，随后再上线 Neiro 现货加合约、Turbo 以及 Babydoge 这三个迷因币。
当中大小写的反转，也让原本小写的 Neiro 市值从 1800 万，瞬间拉升至 1 亿 8000 万，短时间完成 10 倍涨幅，随后更一路上涨至 4 亿美元市值高点。是近期上线交易所的代币当中，唯一具有财富效应币种。
代币有财富效应 -> 吸引更多圈外用户 -> 带来增量资金 -> 市场流动性获得好转 -> 资金推动更多不同代币上涨 -> 代币有财富效应
上述便是正向飞轮循环。
而币安积极上线代币便是开启飞轮的第一步，撰写暴富神话，吸引用户。
然而近期币安大量上线迷因币与 TON 生态相关代币，引发了社群的广泛批评，包括老鼠仓问题严重、币安上币审核不严等争议。针对这些指控，币安联合创办人何一于 9 月 17 日发文回应。
她指出，币安上币的原则是满足用户需求，并承认过去对迷因币的重视程度不足，导致平台在上架 Shiba Inu、PEPE 等迷因币时反应较慢。在上币标准当中偏好活得久以及有商业逻辑的项目。
最后他在文章当中也表示：「如果我们意见不一样，那可能你是对的。」她认为虽然每个人能看到的世界互不相通，每个人都只能看到自己的未来，币安还是会持续探索未来，也感谢所有社群的指教。
整篇文章不卑不亢，整起事件算是告一段落。
9/19 美国联准会宣布降息 50 个基点，这也是自 2020 以来第一次降息两码，也意味着降息循环开启，可以预计热钱逐渐涌入风险市场，加密市场恢复流动性。
再加上历年来 10 月在币圈又被称为「Uptober」，根据过往币圈 11 年以来的历史，10 月仅有两次为下跌，其余 9 次皆为上涨，上涨机率高达 82%
目前宏观条件已经改善，再加上币安的「人造牛市」，加密市场有望在 Q4 走出阴霾，比特币再创历史新高。
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