作者：Marcel Pechman，CoinTelegraph；编译：白水，金色财经
11月20日至27日期间，ETH飙升15%，四个月来首次逼近3,500美元关口。这轮涨势恰逢以太坊期货未平仓合约创下历史新高，这引发了交易员们的疑问：杠杆率上升是否意味着过度看涨情绪。
以太坊期货未平仓总量，ETH。来源：CoinGlass
在截至11月27日的30天里，以太坊期货的未平仓合约总额攀升了23%，达到220亿美元。相比之下，三个月前的8月27日，比特币期货的未平仓合约为312亿美元。此外，当ETH在5月13日交易价格超过4,000美元时，ETH期货未平仓合约为140亿美元。
主导该市场的是 Binance、Bybit 和 OKX，它们合计占 ETH 期货需求的 60%。然而，芝加哥商业交易所（CME）正在稳步扩大其足迹。值得注意的是，CME 目前持有 25 亿美元的 ETH 期货未平仓合约，这表明机构参与不断增加——这一发展通常被视为市场成熟的标志。
无论是机构投资者还是散户投资者，对杠杆的高需求并不一定表明看涨情绪。衍生品市场在买家和卖家之间保持平衡，它们为利用各种情况（包括价格下跌）的策略创造了机会。
例如，现金套利策略涉及在现货（或保证金）市场购买以太坊，同时在以太坊期货中出售相同名义金额。同样，交易者可以通过出售较长期合约（例如 2025 年 3 月到期的合约），同时买入较短期合约（例如 2024 年 12 月）来利用利率差异。这些策略并不反映看涨情绪，但会显著增加对以太坊杠杆的需求。
以太坊 2 个月期货年化溢价。资料来源：Laevitas.ch
11月6日，两个月ETH期货年化溢价（基准利率）超过了10%的中性门槛，并在过去一周保持了17%的强劲水平。这一利率使交易者能够赚取固定回报，同时通过现金套利策略充分对冲风险敞口。然而，值得注意的是，一些市场参与者接受了17%的成本来维持杠杆多头头寸，这表明市场有适度的看涨情绪。
在高杠杆环境中，最大的风险通常来自散户交易者，俗称“degens”，他们经常使用高达20倍的杠杆。在这种情况下，标准的每日5%的价格下跌就可以抹去全部保证金存款，引发平仓。11月23日至26日期间，1.63亿美元的杠杆多头ETH期货头寸被强制平仓。
为了衡量以太坊零售期货头寸的健康状况，永久合约是一个关键指标。与月度合约不同，永续合约密切反映ETH现货价格。他们采用可变的融资利率——通常在每月0.5%到2.1%之间——来平衡多头和空头之间的杠杆。
ETH永续期货8小时资金费率。资料来源：Laevitas.ch
目前，以太坊永久期货融资利率接近中性门槛，即每月2.1%。尽管11月25日曾短暂飙升至4%以上，但并没有持续下去。这表明，即使以太坊价格每周上涨15%，散户对杠杆多头的需求仍然低迷。
这些动态强化了以太坊未平仓头寸的上升反映了机构策略——比如对冲或中性头寸——而不是完全看涨的情绪。
Jim Cramer's optimistic forecast and growing market anticipation signal potential for Ethereum ETFs, mirroring the impact of Bitcoin ETFs. With upgrades like Cancun and Shapella enhancing Ethereum's capabilities, surpassing previous all-time highs seems within reach, possibly by the third quarter.
AnaisBinance's new listing of Portal's gaming token sparked excitement, leading to a surge in market cap to $425 million. Portal offers cross-chain gaming, allowing easy access to various games and assets, with plans for token staking benefits and further expansion.
JoyHong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission has stopped accepting crypto exchange license applications, with non-compliant exchanges facing closure by 31 May 2024. Licensed operators include OSL Digital Securities and HashKey Exchange, while notable applicants like Bybit and OKX seek approval, though platforms like Coinbase and Kraken are absent.
AnaisOpenAI won a legal battle against Open Artificial Intelligence over the "Open AI" trademark, with a court injunction prohibiting the latter's use of the term. The ruling highlights the importance of protecting intellectual property in the AI industry and raises questions about branding strategies for both companies.
JoyElon Musk has filed a lawsuit against OpenAI, accusing the company of abandoning its open-source mission in favor of profit-driven collaboration with Microsoft. The lawsuit seeks to compel OpenAI to return to its original open-source model and ensure transparency in the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI).
WeatherlyNigeria seeks $10 billion from Binance for alleged illegal transactions, contributing to Naira's fall and economic strain, as the country tightens grip on cryptocurrency exchanges.
AlexBitcoin's price surged to $64,000, influenced by U.S. government wallet transfers and strong demand from newly launched U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs, signaling a historic bull market.
MiyukiAuckland-based MACSO, funded by US investors, collaborates with Piera Systems to tackle underage vaping using innovative AI technology. Their advanced solution detects vape and cigarette smoke particles accurately, aiming to create safer environments for students globally.
AnaisWorldcoin's trajectory is buoyed by AI hype but faces challenges from token unlocks and utility questions.
AlexMiyuki