作者：Yashu Gola 来源：cointelegraph 翻译：善欧巴，金色财经
以太坊原生代币 ETH 近期多次进入超卖区域，但仍未显示出触底迹象。目前的交易情况与历史上一段类似情境相似，市场结构暗示 ETH 可能在 2024 年第二至第三季度重演这一走势。
在 3 日 K 线图上，ETH 的相对强弱指数（RSI）仍低于 30，通常该水平预示着潜在反弹机会。
然而，历史数据显示，ETH 进入超卖区域后，并未能形成明确的底部，而是继续下探，表明市场仍受空头主导。
自 2024 年年中以来，ETH/BTC 交易对已多次出现下破行情，跌幅分别达到 13%、21%、25% 和 19.5%，呈现连环式下跌走势。此外，50 日和 200 日指数移动平均线（EMA）均呈下降趋势，进一步印证了市场缺乏上行动能。
X 平台市场分析师 @CarpeNoctom 指出，ETH/BTC 交易对的负面价格表现仍未形成看涨背离（即价格创新低但 RSI 形成更高低点），进一步削弱市场信心。
ETH/BTC 的“诅咒”式下跌趋势在整个加密市场中尤为突出，尤其体现在美国现货 ETH ETF 资金流出和负面链上数据方面。
2024 年 3 月，现货以太坊 ETF 的净流入下降 9.8%，降至 25.4 亿美元。相比之下，现货比特币 ETF 的净流入仅下降 2.35%，仍保持在 357.4 亿美元。
与此同时，以太坊主网的日均 Gas 费用（按中位数计算）已降至 1.12 GWEI，相比 2023 年同期下降近 50 倍。
数据分析平台 Nansen 在最新报告中指出：“尽管 ETH 在 2024 年底迎来第二轮上涨，但主网活动（以 Gas 消耗量衡量）始终未能恢复。”
Nansen 认为，主网交易活跃度下降主要受资金和用户向 Solana 及二层网络（L2s）转移 影响，并表示 ETH 的风险/收益比逊于 BTC 及部分低估值细分赛道的山寨币，因此保持谨慎看空立场。
此外，ETH 相较于 BTC 的需求疲软也反映在期货交易量方面：比特币期货交易量 自 2 月 23 日低点反弹 32%，截至 3 月 18 日达 570 亿美元。以太坊交易量则基本停滞，未见明显增长（数据来源：Glassnode）。
ETH/BTC 交易对在日线图上正形成熊旗形态，该形态通常出现在大幅下跌后的盘整阶段，呈现收敛趋势线。
从技术角度来看，熊旗形态一旦跌破下轨支撑线，价格通常会下跌 与此前跌幅相当的高度。按照这一规则计算，ETH/BTC 在 4 月的下行目标价为 0.01968 BTC，比当前水平再下跌 15%。
此外，ETH/BTC 交易对远低于 50 日和 200 日指数移动平均线（EMA），且这两条关键均线仍呈陡峭下行趋势，表明市场仍处于持续熊市结构。
尽管下跌风险仍然存在，但如果 ETH/BTC 突破熊旗形态上轨阻力，并成功将 50 日 EMA 转换为支撑，则可能无效化当前看跌走势，市场有望迎来反弹。
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