Is SEC Delaying the Ethereum Spot ETF a Huge Benefit? Analyst: Billions of Dollars Ready to be Invested

In the early hours of yesterday (24th), the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially approved the 19b-4 filings (exchange rule changes) submitted by eight Ethereum spot ETF issuers. However, the official listing and trading still require the approval of another necessary S-1 registration statement from the SEC.

How long until the listing? ETFStore President Nate Geraci said on Monday that the SEC might approve the 19b-4 but slow down the execution of the S-1. It could still take "weeks to months" before we see the S-1 approved and the Ethereum spot ETFs officially listed.

Yesterday, several experts optimistically predicted that we might see the first batch of Ethereum spot ETFs listed as early as June. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas firmly predicted that there would be a result in June, while Discus Fish, founder of F2Pool, one of the top five Bitcoin mining pools, and also the founder of digital asset custody solution provider Cobo, predicted that the Ethereum spot ETFs might be officially listed in "mid-June."

However, some institutions believe the listing will be after June. Galaxy Digital predicts it will be in July or August, while JPMorgan bets on a later date in November.

Is SEC Delaying the Ethereum Spot ETF Listing Beneficial for ETH?

Previously, some analysis institutions believed that compared to the rapid approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs at the beginning of the year, the SEC's current delay in approving the S-1 filings for Ethereum spot ETFs could cause significant price adjustments for ETH due to uncertainty.

However, many traders are optimistic, stating that this could build upward momentum in the Ethereum market before the potential capital inflow brought by the spot ETFs.

According to The Block, Zaheer Ebtikar, co-founder of cryptocurrency hedge fund Split Capital, explained:

"If the spot ETFs start trading immediately, the price movement will be more drastic. Instead, this delay allows market participants to preemptively acquire Ethereum before the potential capital inflow from the ETFs."

Even if we conservatively estimate the capital inflow for Ethereum spot ETFs to be 15% of that of Bitcoin spot ETFs, it would still be of significant value.

Analyst: Billions Ready to Invest Before Ethereum Spot ETFs Are Listed

This aligns with the view of eToro analyst Simon Peters, who stated:

"With the approval of the 19b-4 filings, now might be an opportunity for savvy crypto investors to buy Ethereum, anticipating the approval of the S-1 and trading ahead of the ETF listing, with billions potentially flowing in."

He added that Bitcoin's price reached an all-time high after the spot ETFs were launched at the beginning of the year, sparking speculation whether Ethereum could also reach a new high in the future. Currently, ETH is priced at $3,746, about 30% below its all-time high of $4,878 during the 2021 bull market.

GSR research analyst Brian Rudick also agreed:

"Although the impact won't be significant, the delay is a marginally positive factor because the 19b-4 approval was unexpected. Thus, the delay should bring favorable expectations and publicity for the subsequent listing."

"All else being equal, this should help early capital inflow into the product, thereby aiding ETH's price increase."

Bloomberg Analyst: Demand for Ethereum Spot ETFs Will Be 25% of Bitcoin Spot ETFs

Ilya Paveliev, co-founder of crypto venture capital firm Arete Capital, noted that since traders were unaware of the SEC's attitude shift at the last critical moment, they used leverage to capture early momentum, increasing open interest by 26%. However, as short-term traders take profits, this situation might reverse, but the ETF launch should boost spot trading volume.

The overall net capital inflow on the first day of the ETH spot ETF listing is expected to be $20-40 million, about 15-30% of the Bitcoin spot ETF.

Additionally, with lower exchange reserves and 30% of ETH supply locked, this sets the stage for a supply-constrained price squeeze.

Last night, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst James Seyffart stated in an interview that he predicts the demand for Ethereum spot ETFs might be 20-25% of Bitcoin spot ETFs, while his colleague Eric Balchunas believes it to be 15-20%.

Geoff Kendrick, head of forex and digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicted on Tuesday that Ethereum spot ETFs could bring 2.39 to 9.15 million ETH, equivalent to $15 billion to $45 billion, in inflows within the first 12 months after approval. He also predicted that if Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by the end of the year, Ethereum could reach $8,000.